Ukraine conflict: NATO secret document is supposed to prove Putin's bluff - Germany also shares new findings

Created: 02/17/2022, 15:11

By: Florian Naumann, Bedrettin Bölükbasi, Cindy Boden

In the Ukraine conflict, neither NATO nor the USA nor Ukraine see a Russian withdrawal.

Fighting apparently broke out in eastern Ukraine on Thursday.

The news ticker.

• The Ukraine-Russia conflict * is not yet off the table - the consultations are ongoing.

• The US gives new dates for a possible attack and warns of a false flag operation.

  (Update from February 16, 7.50 p.m.).

• There was apparently artillery fire in eastern Ukraine.

  A kindergarten was hit

  (update from February 17, 12:23 p.m.)

  .

• This

  news ticker on the Ukraine-Russia conflict

  is continuously updated.

  You can find more information about the crisis here.

Update from February 17, 2:54 p.m

.: Russia is currently claiming that it is withdrawing troops in the Ukraine conflict.

The West is skeptical about these statements (see previous update for example).

Apparently, NATO is now also having doubts about the troop withdrawal.

This is shown by intelligence information reported by

.

According to a current assessment of the situation by the "Crisis Identification Group" at NATO headquarters in Mons, Belgium: Russia is withdrawing a few soldiers (e.g. from Crimea), but is increasing its military presence overall.

More troops are now present in other places.

In addition, Russia would leave war material at strategically important locations to ensure rapid mobilization.

Update from February 17, 2:01 p.m

.: Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has warned against placing too much trust in Russia in the current situation.

"We saw the first signals this week that Russia wanted to contribute to de-escalation," she said on Thursday, the second day of NATO consultations in Brussels.

"However, these words must not be met with naivety, but these words must now be followed by deeds - namely deeds that actually contribute to de-escalation."

Regarding Russian information on a partial deduction, the SPD politician said: "Well, what we cannot determine from the information available to us is that there has actually been a deduction so far.

(...) So far there are only words, so far no deeds.

They must now urgently follow.”

The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, argued similarly: “So far we have not seen any signs of de-escalation on the ground.

On the contrary: we see that the march is continuing," she said at a meeting with Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

"That's why we need action now to trust the words we've heard."

Ukraine-Russia conflict: "Artillery fire" in a highly explosive situation?

Update from February 17, 12:23 p.m

.: There have apparently been battles in eastern Ukraine.

According to OSCE observers on the ground, there was artillery shelling.

Shots were fired at a village near Luhansk and a kindergarten was hit.

There is no independent information about the injuries, the Ukrainian media reported three to four injuries.

Meanwhile, Russian media claim the attack came from Ukraine.

Photos are circulating on the Internet showing a devastated building.

The journalist Paul Ronzheimer quoted from a phone call between Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyj and EU Council President Charles Michel on Thursday.

“A major provocation erupted from the occupied territory this morning.

They targeted the kindergarten in Stanytsia Luhanska.

Luckily there weren't any children, but two teachers were in shock."

The Ukrainian army has denied shelling pro-Russian separatist positions.

The fire was not returned.

However, the eastern Ukrainian separatists accused the government troops of violating the current ceasefire.

On the other hand, the Ukrainian army's morning report on Thursday only reported isolated violations by the other side.

The Moscow-backed Luhansk rebels said dozens of mortar shells had been fired at several locations in the Luhansk region, especially in the morning hours.

Insurgent positions in the Donetsk region were also fired upon.

The rebels returned fire.

Neither side reported any losses in their own ranks.

Independent representations were initially not available.

In the past few days, the ceasefire monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) had found fewer violations on average than in the previous year.

Update from February 17, 10:50 a.m .:

According to its own statements, NATO still has no credible evidence of a withdrawal of Russian troops from the border area with Ukraine.

"There are signals from Moscow that diplomacy might continue, but so far we haven't seen any signs of retreat or de-escalation," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Thursday at the start of the second day of deliberations among allied defense ministers in Brussels .

Russia has recently again demonstrated its ability and willingness to use force to achieve its goals.

"Unfortunately, I fear this is the new normal that we need to be prepared for," Stoltenberg said.

Ukraine conflict: guesswork about Putin's troops - Russia reports next withdrawal, US soldiers in Slovakia

Update from February 17, 10:08 a.m .:

Russia follows up with further withdrawal reports: Vladimir Putin’s government says it has withdrawn more soldiers from the annexed Crimea.

"Units of the Southern Military District, which have completed their tactical exercises at the Crimean Peninsula military training area, are returning to their home bases by train," the Defense Ministry in Moscow said on Thursday, according to Russian news agencies.

Television footage showed a train loaded with military vehicles crossing a bridge connecting Russia's annexed Ukrainian peninsula to the mainland.

The US government accused Russia on Wednesday of further increasing its troops on the border with Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the first US soldiers have come to Slovakia for a planned large-scale NATO exercise.

As Stefan Zemanovic, the spokesman for the Slovakian Ministry of Defense, confirmed to the dpa, a first convoy with around 200 soldiers from Germany crossed the Czech Republic on Thursday night.

The soldiers were to take part in the Saber Strike 2022 exercise, which had been in preparation for almost two years.

The exercise with around 3,000 soldiers and around 1,000 pieces of military technology such as various types of military vehicles is to take place from March 1st to 14th in Slovakia, which borders directly on Ukraine.

Update from February 17, 10:05 a.m .:

The USA and Russia are not only at odds with Ukraine: According to US information, Russian planes intercepted three US Navy aircraft over the Mediterranean * and in one case approached the machine dangerously.

Update from February 17, 8.45 a.m .:

Despite the considerable doubts of the USA and NATO, Russia has confirmed the partial withdrawal of its troops near Ukraine.

After the completion of maneuvers, tanks from the western military district were prepared for transport, the Ministry of Defense announced in Moscow on Thursday.

It also published a photo that should show the combat vehicles.

The US government had previously classified the partial withdrawal announced by Russia in the midst of the Ukraine conflict as misinformation (

).

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian ambassador in Berlin, Andriy Melnyk, warned the federal government against "rotten compromises over our heads".

"The Ukrainians expect that after Chancellor Olaf Scholz's inaugural visit to Moscow, this German turbo diplomacy will not only gain momentum and momentum, but above all concrete results," Melnyk told the newspapers of the Funke media group.

"Today it's not just about averting a new Russian war in the middle of Europe," said Melnyk.

"The traffic light government must not make any concessions to Mr. Putin in order to affirm free choice of alliance on the one hand and at the same time to postpone Ukraine's NATO membership until the day of the gods.

That would be a geopolitical catastrophe.”

Ukraine conflict: partial deduction false information?

- Russia is likely to increase troops at the border

Update from February 17, 5:30 a.m .:

The US government classifies the partial withdrawal of Russian troops announced by Moscow to ease the Ukraine conflict as false information and instead assumes that the military presence will continue to expand.

In "the past few days," Russia has brought about 7,000 additional troops near the Ukrainian border, "and some of them just arrived today," a senior White House official said Wednesday night.

US government findings, meanwhile, showed that Russia's announcement of a partial withdrawal was "wrong," he said.

NATO had already spoken of a Russian troop build-up instead of the announced partial withdrawal.

“So far we have not seen any de-escalation on site.

On the contrary: Russia seems to be continuing the military deployment," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday in Brussels at the sidelines of a meeting of the defense ministers of the alliance states.

The Ministry of Defense in Moscow, on the other hand, claimed that further parts of the troops would be withdrawn.

Several units involved in exercises on the Ukrainian Black Sea peninsula of Crimea have now returned to their locations.

The Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing a train with tanks and other military vehicles on the Crimean Bridge in the dark.

According to US President Joe Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz, there is still a risk of Russian aggression against Ukraine.

During a phone call, both agreed that the situation in the region should be considered extremely serious in view of the massive Russian troop deployment in the border area with Ukraine, said the spokesman for the federal government, Steffen Hebestreit, on Wednesday.

A significant withdrawal of Russian troops has not been observed so far, the highest level of vigilance is required.

Ukraine crisis: Scholz talks to Biden about possible invasion - "no significant withdrawal"

Update from February 16, 10:35 p.m.:

Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) held a telephone conversation with US President Joe Biden on the Ukraine crisis, as government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit announced: "Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke to US President Joe Biden this evening about the situation in and around exchanged for Ukraine.

Both agreed that the situation in the region was to be assessed as extremely serious given the massive increase in Russian troops in the border area with Ukraine Press release reads: “The risk of further Russian military aggression against Ukraine persists, utmost vigilance is required;

a significant withdrawal of Russian troops has not yet been observed.”

Scholz also spoke to Biden about his trips to Moscow and Kiev, it was said.

Both would have welcomed statements by Putin "that diplomatic efforts should be continued".

“Now we have to pursue it with high pressure.

It is important to enter into a constructive dialogue on questions of European security, to implement the Minsk agreements and to make progress in the Normandy format* with the support of Germany and France.

The key to this lies in Moscow,” the press release from the government spokesman reported on the phone call.

In addition, in the talks between Biden and Scholz, Russia was again threatened with consequences if an invasion actually took place: “Russia must take real steps to de-escalate.

In the event of further military aggression against the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, Russia can expect extremely serious consequences.”

Ukraine crisis: Great Britain doubles number of troops in Estonia - White House warns again

Update from February 16, 9:10 p.m.:

In the course of the Ukraine crisis with Russia, NATO announced an increase in the troop presence in the east of the alliance (

).

A first step in this direction is now coming from Great Britain, as the US broadcaster CNN reported, citing a press release from the ministry.

Accordingly, Great Britain will double the number of British troops in Estonia and also send new military equipment such as tanks to the country.

Apparently this should start today. 

Update from February 16, 8:30 p.m .:

The United States again warned of a possible Russian attack on Ukraine soon and of fake video recordings as a pretext for an invasion.

"Right now we are in a window where a Russian attack could begin at any time," said Jen Psaki, spokeswoman for the White House.

She did not believe the Russian claims about the troop withdrawal: "There is what Russia says and what it does," Psaki emphasized.

Russian troops would remain in a "threatening position" on the border.

You will only know what a significant de-escalation looks like when you see it, the spokeswoman said.

The US would seek a "verifiable reduction in troops on the Ukrainian border."

It also reiterated US warnings about fabricated videos of Moscow to create a pretext for an invasion of Ukraine.

"Everyone should keep their eyes peeled for fake videos," Psaki warned.

Ukraine conflict: will the Russian attack begin next week?

- USA make new specification for the date

Update from February 16, 7:50 p.m .:

The United States has now given new dates for a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"We are very concerned that an attack could happen soon, maybe within the next week," Kristina Kvien, the US deputy ambassador to Ukraine, told UK broadcaster Sky News.

No one except Vladimir Putin can know the exact date, but the attack could happen at any time.

Contrary to the Kremlin's announcements, Moscow has not withdrawn troops, but has stationed many more troops on the border with Ukraine, according to Kvien.

Kvien also defended earlier US claims that the attack could take place on February 16: “We provided the best information we had at the time.

The point is simply that Russia has rallied 150,000 troops on the Ukrainian border.” In addition, Moscow continues to use “aggressive rhetoric” against Kiev and NATO.

Kvien accused Russia of preparing the groundwork for a “false flag operation”.

Ukraine conflict: Zelenskyj agrees with US and NATO statements on Russian withdrawal

Update from February 16, 7:20 p.m .:

Similar to the USA and NATO, the Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Zelenskyj sees no evidence of a Russian withdrawal and an easing of the situation.

“We don't believe what we hear, only what we see.

So far there has been no confirmation of a troop withdrawal, ”explained the President to the

when visiting a military maneuver of the Ukrainian army.

He did not want to comment specifically on the meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chancellor Olaf Scholz: "I am neither satisfied nor dissatisfied, we still have few details about the result of the meeting."

In any case, Selenskyj does not want to be intimidated by the Russian troop deployment.

"We are not afraid of predictions and of enemies," he was quoted as saying by the state news agency

.

Ukraine will defend itself at any time, he assured in a speech to soldiers of the Ukrainian army.

"Now it's not 2014, it's 2022," said Zelenskyy, adding that they are now much stronger than eight years ago.

Ukraine crisis: NATO still sees no retreat - Baerbock wants to increase German OSCE personnel

Update from February 16, 7:10 p.m .:

At the meeting of NATO defense ministers on the Ukraine conflict, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed skepticism about the Kremlin’s announcements about the withdrawal of troops from the Ukrainian border.

Stoltenberg emphasized again that, despite the signals from Russia, there are no signs of a de-escalation on the field. 

"There is no withdrawal of troops or equipment," said the outgoing NATO chief.

He described the tensions between Russia and Ukraine as “the biggest security crisis in Europe in decades”.

NATO is ready for dialogue and it is not too late for Russia to go down the diplomatic route.

At the same time, Stoltenberg assured that the alliance was not a threat to Moscow.

"We see today that Russia has deployed a massive invasion force," he said, adding that this force is ready to launch an attack from Crimea to Belarus.

"This is the largest concentration of troops in Europe since the Cold War," the NATO Secretary General said.

Update from February 16, 7 p.m.:

With a view to a possible relaxation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock* (Greens) continues to see Moscow as responsible.

"The announcements of further negotiations and a partial withdrawal of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border would be a positive signal if they come true," she said on Wednesday in Berlin on the sidelines of a meeting with her Austrian counterpart Alexander Schallenberg.

“We will now monitor closely whether these announcements are followed by concrete actions.

Because one thing remains clear: it is still up to Russia to de-escalate,” said Baerbock.

The way out of the “continued fire-dangerous situation” can only be through dialogue and confidence-building, she added.

According to them, Germany is considering increasing its staff at the OSCE observer mission in Ukraine.

"Especially at such critical moments we need the OSCE mission to create transparency and prevent dangerous misunderstandings," emphasized the Foreign Minister.

Some countries have withdrawn employees for security reasons.

Germany plans to keep its staff on site and is also trying to provide additional staff

Ukraine crisis: NATO strengthens troop presence in the east of the alliance

Update from February 16, 6:40 p.m .:

Not only does NATO as a whole apparently want to upgrade (see previous update) – the US government also apparently has plans for massive defense spending in the middle of the Ukraine crisis: US President Joe Biden wants, according to insiders launch a record defense budget of more than $770 billion.

In the ongoing talks between Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and the Office of the President's Budget Office (OMB), a corresponding sum is emerging, three people familiar with the negotiations told Reuters on Wednesday.

It would be higher than the record budgets that former President Donald Trump had requested from Congress. 

In the meantime, further details about NATO's deterrence plans have become known: According to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, NATO wants to permanently expand its presence on the so-called eastern flank.

For this purpose, new multinational combat units are under discussion, so-called battlegroups.

After the Baltic States and Poland, they could also be used in south-eastern Europe for the first time.

Plans for Romania, which shares a more than 600-kilometer border with Ukraine, have progressed most concretely.

US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron recently promised reinforcements to the NATO partner who joined in 2004.

Further transfers to Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia were also discussed, but there is domestic political resistance there due to the relationship with Russia.

Russia had warned NATO against stationing new forces in the east - particularly in Romania and Bulgaria. 

Update from February 16, 5:12 p.m .:

In view of the Russian troop deployment on the Ukrainian border, NATO is now officially thinking about further armament.

According to a statement adopted on Wednesday at a meeting of defense ministers in Brussels, the country is ready to further strengthen the deterrence and defense posture in order to be prepared for all eventualities.

Russia's actions posed a threat to Euro-Atlantic security.

As a result of the Russian troop deployment, additional forces are already being stationed in the eastern part of the alliance, the Allies said.

In addition, the readiness level of the troops had been increased.

NATO called on Russia to reverse the "baseless and unjustified military build-up" around Ukraine.

Ukraine crisis: Scholz is still speaking to Biden today

Update from February 16, 4:15 p.m .:

After Olaf Scholz’s (SPD) visit to Russia, the Chancellor wants to connect with US President Joe Biden on Wednesday.

A phone call between the two is scheduled for the evening (8:30 p.m. CET), the White House said.

Ukraine: US has serious doubts about Putin's promise of withdrawal

Update from February 16, 4:05 p.m .:

The US government has so far seen no signs of an end to the Russian troop deployment on the border with Ukraine.

So far, no withdrawal of Russian forces has been observed, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told MSNBC television on Wednesday.

"They remain gathered in a very ominous manner along the Ukrainian border." Referring to Moscow's announcement that it would withdraw troops, Blinken said: "What Russia is saying is one thing.

What Russia is doing is different.” It would be good “if they put their money where their mouth is, but we haven't seen that until now”.

Russia surprisingly announced on Tuesday that after maneuvers, troops had begun to be withdrawn from the Ukrainian border.

In view of this situation, the heads of state and government of the EU member states want to exchange views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict at a special meeting on Thursday.

The informal deliberations are taking place on the sidelines of the EU-African Union summit in Brussels, as spokesman for EU Council President Charles Michel announced on Twitter.

The one-hour special talks will deal with the "recent developments" in relation to Russia and Ukraine.

Did Scholz promise Putin too much?

NATO chief strikes a different note when it comes to Ukraine

Jens Stoltenberg (left), Secretary General of NATO, and Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) at a press conference (archive image) © Hannibal Hanschke/dpa

First report from February 16:

Kiev/Moscow – Chancellor Olaf Scholz* (SPD) drew attention to himself at his press conference with Vladimir Putin* on Tuesday (February 15) – with words that were uncomfortable for Ukraine: A possible admission of the country to NATO is standing not on the agenda.

Scholz even joked at this point *: "I don't know how long the President intends to be in office, but I have the feeling that it could take longer - but not forever."

A day later, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reacted to Scholz's words - and put the statements into perspective.

Stoltenberg - NATO chief on call - stressed on Wednesday at the sidelines of the NATO defense ministers' meeting in Brussels that it was not Russia that had to decide on Ukraine's wish to join, but the 30 NATO states in consultation with Kiev.

It is "the right of every nation in Europe to decide its own path," he affirmed.

This is an iron principle of NATO and also laid down in the Helsinki Final Act of 1975.

Ukraine conflict: Stoltenberg puts Scholz's statements into perspective

The Norwegian had previously repeatedly emphasized that Russia had “no right of veto” on the issue.

NATO stands by its decision of 2008 to support Ukraine and Georgia on their way into the military alliance.

The Russian president is demanding guarantees from the alliance that it will not expand further east.

Canadian Defense Minister Anita Anand said in Brussels that NATO "must not deviate from its basic principles" in the conflict with Russia either.

The door of NATO must remain open.

This applies regardless of the "unprecedented Russian aggression on the Ukrainian border".

Baerbock chairs G7 foreign ministers' meeting on Ukraine crisis

It is not entirely clear whether the current signs in the Ukraine-Russia crisis point to escalation or de-escalation.

Is Putin just bluffing?

There are reports of partial deductions.

So far, however, Stoltenberg has seen no signs of a Russian troop withdrawal.

So the crisis is by no means over.

Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) called the deployment of troops "continued to be worrying".

In any case, the foreign ministers of the G7 countries will meet on Saturday to discuss the conflict.

Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Green*) will lead the meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference, announced a spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office.

The meeting will be "mainly about the continued coordination of the crisis caused by the Russian troops' deployment near Ukraine".

Ukraine-Konflikt: „Bereitschaft zum Dialog“ - wie geht es weiter?

Der Ministeriumssprecher hob die „Bereitschaft zum Dialog“ hervor, zugleich sei im Kreis der G7 auch immer wieder über „die möglichen Reaktionen und Konsequenzen für den Fall einer erneuten russischen Aggression gegen die Ukraine“ diskutiert worden. Deutschland hat derzeit die Präsidentschaft der Gruppe der sieben führenden Industriestaaten inne.

Consultations between Germany, France and Ukraine are also planned on the Ukraine crisis, the foreign ministry spokesman said.

A meeting between the Federal Foreign Minister and her colleagues from France, Great Britain and the USA is also planned.

35 heads of state and government, around 100 ministers and the heads of the UN, NATO and the EU are expected to attend the Munich Security Conference.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres will open the meeting, and Scholz, Baerbock and US Vice President Kamala Harris also want to take part.

Conference boss Wolfgang Ischinger was hoping for guests from Russia *.