HSBC Holdings (0005), known as the Lion King, will announce its annual results as of the end of last year on Tuesday (22nd).
Big banks generally expect that HSBC's pre-tax profit on a book-by-book basis last year doubled compared to 2020, and that it would increase its annual dividend by more than 50%.
However, some analysts believe that the speculation about the interest rate hike being beneficial to the bank's prospects has ended, and the stock price will fall back to between 50 and 55 yuan after the announcement of the results.
Credit Suisse expects Lion King to earn nearly 123% more pre-tax last year
According to "Bloomberg" comprehensive forecast, HSBC's adjusted pre-tax profit last year ranged from 19.903 to 24.506 billion US dollars, an increase of 63.8% to 101.7%.
In the fourth quarter of last year alone, adjusted profit before tax was 3.838 billion yuan to 4.719 billion yuan, an increase of 73.7% to 113.5% year-on-year.
Among many big banks, Credit Suisse has the most optimistic view on HSBC's performance last year. It is expected that Lion King's pre-tax profit on a book-by-book basis last year was US$19.55 billion, an increase of 122.7% year-on-year.
Citigroup expects HSBC to earn 115% more profit before tax last year, and expects Lion King's net interest income and fee income to be 26.304 billion US dollars and 13.185 billion US dollars respectively last year, an increase of 4.6% and 11% year-on-year.
At the same time, HSBC is expected to record a net reversal of US$1.52 billion last year.
Another big bank, Morgan Stanley, expects HSBC's net interest income to increase by 2% year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter in the fourth quarter of last year, but non-interest income fell 1% quarter-on-quarter due to weak seasonal trading volume.
Bank of America sees HSBC buybacks rising to $3 billion this year
The big bank expects HSBC to increase its dividend last year and also expects the bank to repurchase in the future.
Goldman Sachs expects HSBC to pay 0.26 US dollars in dividends last year, an increase of 73% year-on-year, while Credit Suisse expects Lion King's dividends to increase by 53.3% to 0.23 US dollars.
Bank of America expects HSBC to repurchase $3 billion this year, while Goldman Sachs expects buybacks to rise to $4 billion by 2025 from the current $2 billion.
Kwok Ka Yiu: You can pay attention to whether the management will talk about new investment
In addition to HSBC's mention of dividends and repurchases, what should be paid attention to when the bank announces its results on Tuesday.
Guo Jiayao, managing director of Anli Asset Management, believes that investors will pay attention to the bank's management's guidance on future business development, including the outlook after it officially enters the interest rate hike cycle this year, and whether the bank will increase investment in markets such as China and Hong Kong. Investors want to see.
Of course, dividends and repurchases are also one of the driving forces for the bank's share price.
As Hong Kong has always been HSBC's main source of profit and income, when asked whether the recent outbreak of the epidemic in Hong Kong, the tightening of social distancing measures by the government, and the reduction of some major banks' forecasts for Hong Kong's economic growth this year will affect HSBC's future business performance, Kwok Ka-yao said: It is pointed out that instead, we should pay attention to the trend of property prices. If the property prices only drop slightly, it is believed that the amount of the bank's provision is limited.
Of course, if the decline in property prices expands in the future, the amount of provisions provided by the local banking industry will inevitably increase.
However, from the current point of view, the decline in property prices should be slight.
As for whether HSBC will be more cautious in considering dividends in the future due to the prospects of the local economy?
He believes that HSBC will take a more gradual approach in dividend payout and will not be too aggressive.
Kwok Jiayao predicts that there may be a slight adjustment in Hong Kong's property prices, which may not have much impact on banks.
(file picture)
He further pointed out that judging from the current stock market performance, investors are not too worried about the epidemic. Among them, they are engaged in catering and tourism industries, and their stock prices have not adjusted much, reflecting investors' expectations that they can get out of the haze of the epidemic. Therefore, he believes that financial The company's impact should not be too great.
When talking about the future performance of HSBC's share price, Guo Jiayao believes that it will fluctuate between 54 and 60 yuan. He also pointed out that the bank's share price has accumulated a considerable increase earlier, so it has recently retreated.
He also pointed out that market participants are currently divided on the pace of interest rate hikes taken by the US Federal Reserve. If inflation remains high, the pace of interest rate hikes will naturally benefit HSBC in the future.
Therefore, the factor of raising interest rates is also the key to whether the bank's stock price can break through the psychological barrier in the future.
Shen Zhenying believes that the good news about HSBC's interest rate hike has been hyped.
(Photo by Yu Junliang)
Shen Zhenying urges investors to "eat hu" before the announcement of results
Shen Zhenying, CEO of Xunhui Securities, who is known as Master Shen, believes that investors' speculation that interest rate hikes will benefit HSBC has been completed. It is suggested that investors may consider "eat hustle" before the results are announced; and pointed out that the recent stock price correction is normal. The stock price has always been affected by a number of uncertainties.
He also did not arrange that after the announcement of the results, HSBC's stock price will be between 50 and 55 yuan, and the future stock price trend depends on the performance of the bank.
When asked about the effect of interest rate hikes on HSBC's interest rate spread, Master Shen bluntly said that it is only an outside forecast at present, and it is difficult to predict the final rate hike.
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