The renewed nuclear deal with Iran, which is likely to be signed in the coming days in Vienna, is bad in every way, except for one: it gives Israel a relatively significant period of time to prepare a credible and effective military option for command day.
The Iranians entered into this agreement with their hands on the bottom in almost every way: their economy collapsing, they carry out almost daily terrorist attacks in the region against the Americans and their partners, they committed almost every possible violation of the previous agreement and were exposed with quite a few lies.
Despite this, they come out on top: not only because the agreement will not be extended or improved, but they will not even be required to dismantle the advanced centrifuges they have installed (or stop R&D with newer centrifuges), and they will also enjoy partial removal of the sanctions imposed on them.
It is an outgrowth of American laxity, part of which stems from the nature of the president and the administration - who have stated that they are in favor of an agreement and have ruled out any military option in advance - and part of the global situation.
Iran has made good use of the tensions in Ukraine and the fact that attention in Washington is directed to Russia and China.
She realized that Biden wanted to end this headache and move on, and pressed every possible button (and we may not have seen the end yet; the Iranians are the negotiators, and may provoke crises just before the final whistle in an attempt to gain more benefits and relief).
Resisted, but behind the scenes.
Prime Minister Bennett (Archive), Photo: Mark Israel Salem
Israel has turned worlds to oppose this agreement.
Anyone who claims otherwise is speaking out of political considerations or lack of knowledge.
Unlike on the eve of the previous agreement, she did so behind the scenes, not off stage.
This was a rational decision by the Bennett government, stemming from three main motives: the understanding that Washington is determined to reach an agreement and that no pressure will be exerted will change this bottom line;
The fact that public opposition in the previous round - including a speech by then-Prime Minister Netanyahu to the two houses of parliament - not only did not change the picture, but made the Obama administration more hostile and caused significant damage to relations between Israel and the Democratic Party, which has yet to be restored; From the United States, which would not have been acceptable to Israel, it would have been conducted, again, in a manner similar to the administration.
Although the agreement has not yet been signed, and apparently pressure can still be exerted in an attempt to improve it, the chances of succeeding in this are slim.
The National Security Adviser, Eyal Hulta, has visited Washington several times in recent months, and Bennett, Ganz and Lapid have also activated every possible mechanism.
But the Americans insisted on listening and not listening: they agreed with almost everything Israel said about the Iranian danger on its many derivatives - nuclear, ballistic, terrorist and economic - and did the opposite of what was asked.
Now Israel must try to get lemonade out of this lemon.
It must instill in the American head that Iran under the agreement will be more aggressive and violent, and with much more money to do so, and when quite a few open accounts are at stake with Israel and other countries, it means blood and fire and plumes of smoke.
Headache.
US President Joe Biden (Archive),
Israeli compensation package
Following this, Israel must demand a significant compensation package from the Americans.
It should serve it on an ongoing operational and intelligence basis in the face of the Iranian threats that are expected to be overcome, and it should primarily increase its basket of options to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat, once the agreement expires.
Along with the blue-and-white developments that lie ahead, Israel should arrive better prepared for this challenge in the future.
It will be only partial compensation for the intended agreement, but it seems to have been spilled milk.
From now on the race is who will arrive ready and stronger for the day after the agreement;
Until then, Israel will be required to continue fighting the Iranians all over the field, in a campaign that is only expected to escalate.
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