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Fluctuations on the stock exchange:
The Dax is under the spell of the Ukraine crisis
Photo: DANIEL ROLAND/ AFP
The fear of a Russian invasion of Ukraine has been causing sharp fluctuations on the stock exchanges for weeks.
The Dax dropped by 2.5 percent last week as the Ukraine crisis threatened to escalate.
On Monday in early trading, however, the Dax and EuroStoxx 50 are likely to start trading with slight gains: Investors are hoping that the planned summit meeting between US President Biden and Russian President Putin will take place and that everyone involved will gain time to find a diplomatic solution to the crisis.
Two hours before Xetra trading began, the Dax was up around 0.5 percent at 15,110 points.
"The Ukraine conflict is hanging like a dark cloud over the stock markets," wrote Ulrich Kater, chief economist at Dekabank.
The recent price fluctuations on the financial markets are due to the economic risks of an escalation of the situation.
Military action by Russia would result in economic sanctions.
Depending on the level of military escalation, graduated sanctions would also be used.
According to the analyst Andreas Hürkamp from Commerzbank, the leading German index Dax should fall towards 14,000 points if Russia invades Ukraine.
Currently, the round mark of 15,000 points still represents good support for the stock market barometer. However, Hürkamp qualified, in the past regionally limited wars have often only had a short-term impact on the stock markets.
Investors with a long-term perspective who have built up stock positions step by step over the past few years therefore have the option of sitting out the Ukraine crisis.
High inflation puts additional pressure on markets - Fed is likely to start raising interest rates in March
For the analysts at Landesbank Hessen-Thüringen (Helaba), in addition to geopolitics, the focus is on high inflation and the central banks' responses to it.
These also make their monetary policy dependent on what conclusions current economic data allow for the economy and thus inflation.
According to the Helaba experts, retail sales and industrial production in the USA recently surprised to the upside, while regional sentiment indicators tended to disappoint.
In the new week, further data followed, including new construction sales on Thursday and incoming orders for durable goods on Friday, which can provide information on the policy of the US Federal Reserve.
According to Helaba, the markets are speculating as to whether the Fed will start the rate hike cycle in March with a small or large step.
Contradictory signals have come from Fed members.
According to the analyst Sven Streibel from DZ Bank, the central bank's rhetoric is becoming sharper overall.
After the Fed and the British central bank, the European Central Bank is now also holding out the prospect of a more restrictive monetary policy.
However, the currently anticipated US interest rate turnaround has already been fully taken into account nationwide in the prices.
Investors fear that if interest rates rise faster than expected to fight inflation, equities will appear in a worse light compared to bonds.
Fresenius, FMC, Telekom and BASF open their books this week
In addition, business figures from companies should also provide new impetus in the new week.
On Tuesday, for example, the medical group and hospital operator Fresenius and its dialysis subsidiary Fresenius Medical Care open their books.
The reinsurer Munich Re will follow on Wednesday, among others.
On Thursday, for example, investors look at the quarterly figures of Deutsche Telekom and on Friday at the results of the chemical company BASF.
Wall Street is not trading on Monday
After turbulent ups and downs in trading, the US stock markets again had to pay tribute to the conflict over Ukraine on Friday.
After the bitter losses of the previous day, the charges were somewhat lower this time.
The Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.68 percent to 34,079.18 points.
On a weekly basis, the Ukraine conflict brought the leading index down by almost two percent.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 fell further, down 1.14 percent to 14,009.54 points.
The market-wide S&P 500 fell by 0.72 percent to 4348.87 points.
There is no trading in the USA this Monday due to a public holiday.
Bitcoin falls below $40,000 mark
Other risky assets such as cryptocurrencies were also significantly lower.
Bitcoin was last listed on the Bitstamp trading platform at around 39,000 US dollars.
It also fell below the $38,000 mark at times on Monday night, but then recovered somewhat.
Stock exchanges in Asia hardly changed
The prospect of a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict on Monday failed to erase investor concerns in Asia that the US Federal Reserve would aggressively tighten monetary policy.
US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to hold a summit meeting to deal with the crisis.
But stock market traders are looking at the US core inflation data released this week: According to experts, the data is expected to show an annual increase of 5.1 percent - the fastest pace since the early 1980s.
"January inflation readings surprised sharply to the upside," said Bruce Kasman, chief economist at JPMorgan.
"We now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25 basis points at each of the next nine meetings."
The Nikkei
Index
, which comprises 225 stocks,
was
0.7 percent lower at 26,926 points.
The broader Topix index fell 0.7 percent to 1,910 points.
The Shanghai stock exchange was down 0.4 percent.
The index of the most important companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen lost 0.6 percent.
Oil price hardly changed
Oil prices hardly changed on Monday.
In the morning, a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent cost $92.79.
That was 18 cents less than the day before.
The price of a barrel of the American West Texas Intermediate (WTI) variety fell 33 cents to $91.43.
Two issues are currently the focus of attention on the crude oil market: the Ukraine crisis and the Iranian nuclear deal.
In the Ukraine conflict, the prospect of further negotiations has recently provided some relief.
With a view to Iran, market participants are speculating on additional oil from the OPEC country.
The background is the ongoing negotiations on the revival of the nuclear agreement.
A new deal could see US sanctions lifted on the country's oil sector.
With news agencies