Europe's last war, the one that has been pitting the Ukrainian Army against pro-Russian separatists in the Donbas region since 2014, now threatens to spread to the rest of Ukraine and drag Europe and the West into the abyss of a new Cold War with Russia.
February 22
Russia sends troops to Ukraine's Donbas region
Putin has ordered the sending of troops to Donbas after signing the recognition of the independence of Lugansk and Dontesk
Belgorod
soloti
Valuyki
RUSSIA
Kharkiv
LUGANSK
UKRAINE
Under control
from Ukraine
DONBAS
Lugansk
DONETSK
area under control
of the separatists
pro-Russian
Donetsk
Rostov-on-Don
Sea of Azov
UKRAINE
100km
Putin has ordered the sending of troops to Donbas after signing the recognition of the independence of Lugansk and Dontesk
Belgorod
soloti
Valuyki
RUSSIA
Kharkiv
LUGANSK
UKRAINE
Under control
from Ukraine
DONBAS
Lugansk
area under control
of the separatists
pro-Russian
DONETSK
Donetsk
UKRAINE
Sea of Azov
100km
UKRAINE
soloti
Valuyki
Kharkiv
RUSSIA
LUGANSK
Under control
from Ukraine
Millerovo
UKRAINE
DONBAS
Lugansk
area under control
of the separatists
pro-Russian
DONETSK
Donetsk
Putin has ordered the sending of troops to Donbas after signing the recognition of the independence of Lugansk and Dontesk
Mariupol
Berdyansk
Sea of Azov
100km
Belgorod
soloti
UKRAINE
Valuyki
Kharkiv
RUSSIA
LUGANSK
Under control
from Ukraine
Millerovo
UKRAINE
DONBAS
Lugansk
area under control
of the separatists
pro-Russian
DONETSK
Putin has ordered the sending of troops to Donbas after signing the recognition of the independence of Lugansk and Dontesk
Donetsk
Rostov-on-Don
Mariupol
100km
Sea of Azov
The recognition that Putin consummated yesterday of the self-proclaimed people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk and the sending of Kremlin troops this Monday to the zone under separatist control of the Ukrainian region of Donbas - located in the southeast of Ukraine, next to its border with Russia — make the international community fear that this movement is the prelude to an escalation in the fighting between the pro-Russian separatists and Ukraine and even a large-scale invasion of the former Soviet republic by Russian troops, which have already begun to deploy in these two territories.
More information
Putin sends troops to breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine after recognizing their independence
In March 2014, after a referendum that the international community considered illegal, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula and offered military and economic support to the Donbas separatists.
A month later, they proclaimed their independence from Ukraine, which precipitated the start of the conflict that has lasted eight years and has left more than 14,000 dead.
The conflict has left Donbas divided into two areas separated by the front line: the area controlled by Russian-backed separatists, on the border with that country, and the area that remains under the control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in the west. .
The separatists claim all the territory of Donetsk and Lugansk, but only control a third - some 6,500 square kilometers according to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).
Deployment of troops and battle groups in the Russian town of Soloti, near the Donbas region.
February 13th.
Rifle battalion convoy moving northeast of Soloti garrison.
February 20th.
New detachment located east of Valuyki, in Russia.
February 20th.
Small detachment deployed along a line of trees northwest of Belgorod.
February 20th.
Satellite photos: Maxar Technologies © 2022.
Deployment of troops and battle groups in the Russian town of Soloti, near the Donbas region.
February 13th.
Rifle battalion convoy moving northeast of Soloti garrison.
February 20th.
New detachment located east of Valuyki, in Russia.
February 20th.
Small detachment deployed along a line of trees northwest of Belgorod.
February 20th.
Satellite photos: Maxar Technologies © 2022.
Deployment of troops and battle groups in the Russian town of Soloti, near the Donbas region
February 13th
Rifle battalion convoy on the move northeast of Soloti garrison
February 20th
New detachment located east of Valuyki, in Russia
February 20th
Small
detachment deployed along a line of trees northwest of Belgorod
February 20th
Satellite photos: Maxar Technologies © 2022.
February 22
Russia sends troops to Ukraine's Donbas region
Moscow
RUSSIA
LITHUANIA
On February 21, Putin recognizes the independence of the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk and orders the sending of troops to the region.
BELARUS
Kyiv
UKRAINE
donbas
Transnistria
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
crimea
Black Sea
250km
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. Donbas is a Ukrainian region where Russian-backed separatists control a third of the territory.
Russian troops
Without number
of troops
known
5,000
1,000
Updated: January 27
RUSSIA
Moscow
LITHUANIA
BELARUS
On February 21, Putin recognizes the independence of the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk and orders the sending of troops to the region.
Kyiv
UKRAINE
donbas
Transnistria
MOLDOVA
ROMANIA
crimea
Black Sea
250km
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. Donbas is a Ukrainian region where Russian-backed separatists control a third of the territory.
Russian troops
Without number
of troops
known
5,000
1,000
Updated: January 27
Moscow
LITHUANIA
Kaliningrad
RUSSIA
BELARUS
POLAND
On February 21, Putin recognizes the independence of the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk and orders the sending of troops to the region.
Kyiv
UKRAINE
donbas
Transnistria
MOLDOVA
crimea
Krasnodar
ROMANIA
Black Sea
250km
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. Donbas is a Ukrainian region where Russian-backed separatists control a third of the territory.
Russian troops
Without number
of troops
known
5,000
1,000
Updated: January 27
5,000
Russian troops
Without number
of troops
known
Updated:
February 20th
1,000
Moscow
LITHUANIA
Kaliningrad
Minsk
POLAND
RUSSIA
BELARUS
Krakow
Voronezh
Chernobyl
Kyiv
UKRAINE
Russia has maintained a military presence in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria since the 1990s.
Lugansk
SLOV.
donbas
On February 21, Putin recognizes the independence of the provinces of Lugansk and Donetsk and orders the sending of troops to the region.
volgograd
Donetsk
HUNGARY
Transnistria
MOLDOVA
Sea of Azov
crimea
Krasnodar
ROMANIA
Black Sea
250km
Crimea was annexed by Russia in 2014. Donbas is a Ukrainian region where Russian-backed separatists control a third of the territory.
Rusia comenzó en noviembre a acumular tropas y armamento junto a su frontera con Ucrania. La consultora Rochan Consulting, que ha estado monitorizando el despliegue, calculaba el 27 de enero que más de 100.000 soldados rusos estaban ya desplegados cerca de la frontera. Los últimos movimientos de Rusia y el inicio de lo que Rochan califica como “una nueva fase”, en la que las unidades están pasando de congregarse en puntos de reunión a actuar en zonas de maniobras más dispersas, complica ahora seguir y cuantificar los destacamentos en el terreno. De acuerdo con “fuentes occidentales” citadas por la británica BBC dos tercios de estas tropas rusas se encuentran ahora a menos de 50 kilómetros de la linde con el territorio ucranio.
Además de los soldados desplegados junto al confín con Ucrania, Moscú mantiene a 30.000 soldados, armamento pesado y aviones y helicópteros de combate en Bielorrusia.
El embajador de Estados Unidos ante la Organización para la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa (OSCE), Michael Carpenter, calculó el viernes que entre las tropas rusas instaladas junto a la frontera ucrania, las que Moscú mantiene en Crimea y las desplegadas en Bielorrusia, el Kremlin puede tener sobre el terreno a entre 169.000 y 190.000 militares en Ucrania y sus cercanías. A ese importante despliegue, hay que sumar los alrededor de 2.000 militares que, según datos del think tank polaco Warsaw Institute, Moscú mantiene en Transnistria, una región cuya población de lengua y cultura rusa declaró su independencia de Moldavia en 1990.
29 de enero
Opciones de invasión
BIELORRUSIA
RUSIA
Belgorod
Kiev
Total
Río Dnieper
UCRANIA
Donbás
Vinnytsia
Dnipro
Odesa
MOLD.
RUMANIA
Este
Sur
250 km
Crimea
Mar Negro
BIELORRUSIA
RUSIA
Belgorod
Kiev
Total
Río Dnieper
UCRANIA
Donbás
Vinnytsia
Dnipro
Odesa
MOLD.
RUMANIA
Este
Sur
250 km
Crimea
Mar Negro
BIELORRUSIA
Troebortnoe
Mazur
RUSIA
POLONIA
Chernóbil
Belgorod
Kiev
Total
Río Dnieper
Lviv
UCRANIA
Vinnytsia
Donbás
ESLOV.
Dnipro
Lugansk
Donetsk
HUNGRÍA
MOLD.
Melitopl
Odesa
Este
RUMANIA
Sur
250 km
Mar Negro
Crimea
BIELORRUSIA
Troebortnoe
Mazur
RUSIA
POLONIA
Korosten
Chernóbil
Belgorod
Opción Este
Kiev
Lviv
Río Dnieper
Opción total
UCRANIA
Vinnytsia
Uzhorod
Donbás
Kremenchuk
ESLOV.
Dnipro
Lugansk
Donetsk
HUNGRÍA
MOLDAVIA
Opción Sur
Melitopl
Odesa
Kherson
Rostov del Don
RUMANIA
250 km
Crimea
Mar Negro
Los analistas creen que los escenarios más plausibles de una supuesta invasión rusa de Ucrania son tres:
1. Opción Sur. Las tropas rusas tratarían de conquistar la franja de territorio ucranio ribereño del mar Negro. Esa franja iría desde la región del Donbás hasta llegar a Transnistria, en Moldavia, pasando por la península de Crimea, anexionada ilegalmente por Rusia en 2014. Esta posibilidad aseguraría el suministro de agua a Crimea, que Kiev cortó hace ocho años, y dejaría a Ucrania sin salida al mar.
2. Opción Este. Los soldados rusos podrían penetrar en las zonas separatistas del Donbás, sin avanzar más en Ucrania, o bien intentar conquistar todo el territorio ucranio al este del río Dniéper, que divide el país en dos mitades. Este avance militar incluiría la toma de Kiev con la posible colaboración de las tropas rusas estacionadas en Bielorrusia, cuya frontera se encuentra a 80 kilómetros de la capital.
3. Opción total. Una invasión de toda Ucrania es el escenario que los expertos consideran más improbable por la dificultad de controlar un territorio de más de 600.000 kilómetros cuadrados y a una población de 44 millones de personas, según el Banco Mundial. La oposición de la ciudadanía es un factor que puede ser más determinante incluso que la resistencia puramente militar de las Fuerzas Armadas ucranias, en manifiesta inferioridad frente al Ejército ruso. Además de la diferencia abismal en términos de armamento, Ucrania cuenta solo con 209.000 militares en activo frente a los 900.000 del Ejército ruso, de acuerdo con datos del Instituto Internacional de Estudios para la Paz de Estocolmo (SIPRI en sus siglas en inglés).
Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Maxar Technologies, Rochan Consulting.
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