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(CNN) --
Wildfires have intensified around the world, reminding us that the climate crisis is changing lives and causing billions of dollars of damage a year.
And the situation will only get worse, according to dozens of fire experts around the world.
A report published this Wednesday by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) suggests that it is time to "learn to live with fire" and adapt to the increased frequency and severity of forest fires, which will inevitably put more lives and economies at risk.
The number of extreme wildfires will increase by up to 14% in 2030, according to the report's analysis.
In 2050, the increase will be 30%.
Even with the most ambitious efforts to cut heat-trapping emissions, the report shows those short-term consequences are assured.
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Although the situation is dire and eliminating wildfire risks is impossible, communities can reduce their risk and exposure, said Andrew Sullivan, lead researcher at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization and editor of the report.
"Uncontrollable and devastating wildfires are becoming an expected part of seasonal calendars in many parts of the world," Sullivan said at a news conference on Monday.
"In places where wildfires have historically occurred, wildfires may increase; however, in places where they have not historically occurred, they may become more common."
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A large bushfire is seen from Bargo, Australia, southwest of Sydney, in December 2019. A state of emergency was declared in Australia's most populous region that month, as an unprecedented heat wave stoked bushfires outside of control, destroying houses and suffocating huge areas with toxic smoke.
Wildfires affect all aspects of society, such as public health, livelihoods, biodiversity and the already changing climate.
UNEP researchers, including more than 50 experts from universities, government agencies and international organizations around the world, say the report serves as a "road map" for adapting to a world on fire.
The changing pattern of wildfires
Fires have always fulfilled a vital ecological function on Earth, essential to many ecosystems.
They restore nutrients to the soil, help plants germinate, and remove decaying matter.
Without fires, excess vegetation such as grasses and shrubs can set the landscape up for worse fires, especially during extreme droughts and heat waves.
Burning parts of the land on purpose has historically prevented larger, more destructive fires.
Indigenous peoples have been applying this preventive method, known as controlled or prescribed burning, for thousands of years.
A firefighter battles flames during the Creek Fire in the Cascadel Woods area of unincorporated Madera County, California, in September 2020.
But as humans have warmed the planet, developed more land, and created fire suppression policies while neglecting forest management, wildfires have become deadlier and more destructive than ever.
These factors, according to the UNEP report, drastically changed the fire regime.
Wildfires now burn longer and become more intense in places where they have always burned;
Meanwhile, fires are also igniting and spreading in unexpected places, such as wetlands, drying peatlands, and thawing permafrost in the Arctic.
"What is striking is that there are now ecosystems that are beginning to burn that we did not expect with such intensity," Tim Christophersen, chief of UNEP's Nature for Climate Branch, told CNN.
"For example, there are many more wetlands that, as they are called, you might think do not burn easily. We see more and more fires also in the Arctic Circle, where they are naturally rare."
According to an expert, “it is essential to know the causes of the fires”
Wildfires, which are usually caused by lightning or human activity, are becoming more frequent due to man-made climate change.
Scientists found, for example, that climate change made the extreme weather conditions that fueled the 2019-2020 destructive fire seasons in Australia 30% more likely to occur.
Additionally, a recent study found that high-altitude forests in the Rocky Mountains are burning hotter now than at any time in the last 2,000 years.
In the past two years, wildfires in the western US have exhibited extreme fire behavior, spreading smoke across the country while creating their own weather.
A misty San Francisco skyline is seen from Dolores Park in September 2020, when more than 300,000 acres burned across the state.
Fires are also increasingly detrimental to public health.
A recent study revealed that annual exposure to smoke from wildfires causes more than 30,000 deaths in the 43 countries analyzed in the study.
Another study found that an increase in fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke in 2020 led to an increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in California, Oregon and Washington.
Wildfires have also become more costly.
In the US, the UNEP report points to data from the National Inter-Agency Fire Center, which indicates that the average annual cost of fighting fires skyrocketed to US$1.9 billion in 2020, which represents an increase of more than 170% in a decade.
The researchers say that governments are not learning from the past and are perpetuating conditions that are not good for the environment or the economy in the future.
"The world needs to change its posture on wildfires, from reactive to proactive, because the frequency and intensity of wildfires are going to increase due to climate change," said Christophersen.
"That means we all have to be better prepared."
A change of mind
The report predicts that the probability of intense events, similar to those seen in Australia's so-called Black Summer bushfires in 2019 and 2020 or the record-setting Arctic fires in 2020, will increase by up to 57% to end of century.
"Zombie fires" are already burning (without flames) in the Arctic and could become more common as the planet warms
And because of the ever-changing conditions in which wildfires occur, the researchers say authorities and policymakers need to work with local communities, reclaim indigenous knowledge and invest money to prevent wildfires from igniting. in the first place to reduce the damages and losses that come later.
A forest fire in central Yakutia, Russia, in June 2020.
UNEP researchers suggest that governments adopt a "fire preparedness formula", which allocates two-thirds of spending to planning, prevention, preparedness and recovery, and only a smaller percentage to response to damage and loss.
"This formula needs to be tailored to each regional and national context," Christophersen said.
"But in general, it's about moving away from just investing in the response and getting more into prevention, planning and recovery."
Christophersen added that it is also crucial to strengthen regional and international cooperation to help other countries.
"Some countries are more advanced in this than others and they can share their knowledge with other countries," he said.
"At the moment, what keeps me up at night is that there is no real global response yet, so we need more investment in that kind of global platform as well."
The report acknowledges that the United Nations system itself "lacks strong forest fire expertise dedicated to this challenge," which they plan to change through a series of initiatives to help countries.
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