An analysis shows that 180,000 more apartments could be built in the region.
The municipalities would have to identify more areas for this.
District
– There is still plenty of room for people to move to the Munich region.
The Planning Association for the Outer Economic Area of Munich (PV) sees large reserves for residential building areas.
Theoretically, 180,000 additional residential units could be built in Munich and the eight surrounding districts – conservative estimates.
With an occupancy of an average of two residents, 360,000 people could move in over the next 20 years.
In the district of Munich, the planners have determined a potential area of 223 hectares based on the land use plans of the municipalities.
However, the State Office for Statistics now only predicts an increase of around 225,000 people by the year 2040.
In 2015, an increase of 400,000 people by 2035 was assumed.
In the last study in 2017, the planners therefore assumed that there was not enough living space in the region.
Connection to the train
This forecast has been revised.
"There is enough space for the additional residents, especially in the surrounding area," emphasizes PV Managing Director Christian Breu with a view to the latest population forecast.
In the surrounding area, there are space reserves for around 108,000 residential units in the eight rural districts and around 72,000 residential units in the city of Munich.
"Even if fewer people than before live in a household in the future due to demographic change, there will be enough space," says Breu.
In the district of Munich, additional residential construction is possible in areas that are well connected to rail transport.
In the district of Munich, the proportion of building land that is one or two kilometers from a train station is 89 percent.
According to PV, this proportion is 63 percent on average.
View from town halls
In the town halls, one sees the building land reserves with mixed feelings.
"Apartments are important and needed," says Oberhaching's mayor and CSU district councilor Stefan Schelle.
Oberhaching rents around 300 municipal apartments for eight to twelve euros per square meter.
At the turn of the year, 24 new apartments were occupied, and the community is already planning the next ones.
"But we also have to make sure that we bring people into ownership," says Schelle, "their own living space is the best precaution against poverty in old age."
Leasehold models are now becoming attractive again in many places.
The municipality of Oberhaching also wants to let builders have a plot of land in the long term for a leasehold rent.
Although the builder is the owner of his house and can also inherit or give it away, he has to return the property after about two generations or sign a new contract with the municipality.
Oberhaching is open to reasonable densification and moderate influx, says Schelle.
However, new apartments, as required by the planning association, also create problems.
"As a result, more infrastructure is needed", new kindergartens and schools that would have to be counter-financed.
From 2026, parents even have the right to care for their child until the end of primary school.
“The municipality invests around 17,000 euros in infrastructure for each new citizen,” Schelle states.
The consequential costs of moving in are no longer covered by income tax.
If the tasks of the municipality increase, the share of the municipality in the income tax should also increase, Schelle demands.
Otherwise, municipalities might find it more interesting to designate commercial areas.
High construction activity
A lot has been built in the Munich region in the past five years.
On average, more than 11,200 apartments are completed in the region each year.
"Garching has done its homework," says Dietmar Gruchmann, mayor of the city of 18,500 and SPD district councillor.
In addition to Kirchheim, most of the housing projects in the district are currently being realized in Garching.
"By 2032, around 8,000 new residents will come to us", so Garching "in our generation" is busy enough with the expansion of the infrastructure for the time being.
"Many people in Garching already feel overwhelmed," says Gruchmann, "you have to take it slower in the future." The current push came about because a long-awaited building land designation was delayed.
“We get inquiries every day”
The demand is still greater than the supply.
"We get inquiries every day," reports Gruchmann.
He can't offer anything.
"There are no more areas at the moment." Only in the distant future is it conceivable that building land could again be allocated in the direction of the research campus, says Gruchmann.
After all, the study by the planning association confirms that the building land reserves have increased in recent years.
However, the municipalities would still have to identify residential building areas in order to support an easing of tension on the housing market.
Interactive maps: The Planning Association for Munich and the districts of Munich, Freising, Erding, Ebersberg, Starnberg, Landsberg, Fürstenfeldbruck and Dachau offers detailed maps on its website.