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Heads of State Bolsonaro, Putin (in Moscow on February 16): Brothers in spirit
Photo: MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV / KREMLIN / SPUTNIK / POOL / EPA
The principle of non-intervention is sacred to most Latin American nations, and in Mexico it is even enshrined in the constitution.
Governments, both left and right, are eager to condemn interference by foreign powers in the internal affairs of a state in the region.
There have been many in the history of the continent: US governments have supported coups in Latin America, imposed economic sanctions and deposed unwelcome presidents.
The Soviet Union supported revolutions during the Cold War and even stationed missiles in a Latin American country - provoking the greatest threat to world peace since World War II: the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962.
Despite these experiences, some Latin American presidents seem to find it difficult to speak out clearly against the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
There can hardly be a worse intervention in the internal affairs of another state than a military raid.
"Venezuela stands with Putin"
The usual three suspects - Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua - were expected, on ideological grounds, to show solidarity with the aggressor Vladimir Putin.
"Venezuela is on Putin's side," President Nicolás Maduro announced on Wednesday.
"Russia is simply defending itself," said Nicaragua's dictator Daniel Ortega.
Havana accused Washington of promoting the "expansion of NATO towards the Russian Federation" and thus provoking the war.
Cuba has maintained historic ties with Moscow since the days of the Soviet Union, Ortega received support from the Eastern Bloc as president of the revolutionary regime in Nicaragua in the 1980s, and Venezuela has had close ties to Russia since the government of leftist caudillo Hugo Chávez.
Putin sold Chávez guns and planes, while Russian companies are producing oil and gas in Venezuela.
A few weeks before the invasion, Russia's defense minister hinted that Moscow could send troops to Venezuela and Cuba if the crisis escalated further - apparently alluding to a new Cuban Missile Crisis.
Saber-rattling with a new Cuban Missile Crisis
The US government probably rightly dismissed the threat as saber-rattling.
It's safe to assume that Maduro would be unenthusiastic about the prospect of a Russian provocation from Venezuelan soil.
The day after the invasion it looked as if he would backtrack: he is now demanding a "diplomatic solution".
Politically, the Russian invasion of Ukraine does not suit him: Maduro is currently trying to stabilize Venezuela economically and improve his reputation in the region.
Nicaragua and Cuba, the other two Putin friends, hardly play a role on the international stage.
But the presidents of Mexico and Brazil, the two political and economic heavyweights in Latin America, also initially found it difficult to find the right words in view of the Russian invasion.
"We are not for any war," Mexican left-wing populist President Andrés Manuel López Obrador swore during his morning press conference.
Mexico has always spoken out in favor of "peace and a peaceful solution" to conflicts.
He avoided naming Russia or Putin.
Only after the Ukrainian embassy and several ex-diplomats had criticized his stance for not openly condemning the invasion did Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard follow suit.
"Mexico strongly condemns this invasion and calls for an immediate ceasefire" that would allow "a diplomatic solution" and protect the population, Mexico's chief diplomat announced.
Bolsonaro hesitates to condemn Putin
Brazil's right-wing populist head of state Jair Bolsonaro, on the other hand, continues to hesitate to name and condemn Russia's aggression as such.
He called his deputy back after he compared Putin to Hitler.
Bolsonaro himself has so far remained silent on the war against Ukraine.
Eight days before the attack on Ukraine, the Brazilian had visited Putin in Moscow and assured him of his "solidarity."
Bolsonaro supporters then took to social media to claim that their idol had worked with Putin to find a peaceful solution and possibly prevented a third world war.
Mexico and Brazil both currently sit on the UN Security Council, and they also have international influence.
In Berlin, which maintains good relations with Mexico, the government is counting on the United Nations to condemn the invasion, as the United States prepared on Friday afternoon.
Its passage failed because of Russia's veto, but according to the West's calculations, a large degree of diplomatic support for the text could contribute to Russia's isolation in the UN General Assembly.
With his statement on Thursday, Foreign Minister Ebrard signaled that Mexico was firmly on the side of Putin's opponents.
He was acting "at the request" of President López Obrador, he announced.
It is unclear whether Washington, Berlin or the European Union used their influence to reformulate Mexico's position.
The Mexican president is considered by those in the know to be resistant to advice and has so far not been particularly interested in foreign policy.
It is more likely that the sharp words came from Foreign Minister Ebrard himself and were approved by López Obrador.
Ebrard is considered a likely contender to succeed the president in three years.
A hesitant attitude towards Russian aggression would not go down well with the Mexican people in view of the horror images from Ukraine.
International pressure is having an effect
International pressure also seems to be having an effect on Bolsonaro: after much hesitation, Brazil approved Russia's condemnation in the Security Council.
The Brazilian UN ambassador had previously been worked on for hours by European and American diplomats.
The US embassy in Brasilia had publicly asked Bolsonaro to condemn the invasion.
"Brazil's voice is important," said the US chargé d'affaires.
The EU would count on Brazil to show Russia that "there are rules in the international community and these rules must also be respected in the international community," the European Community ambassador seconded in an interview on CNN.
Bolsonaro is in a dilemma: He sees the autocrat as a spiritual brother, like his idol Donald Trump.
Putin's macho demeanor goes down well with him;
he also agrees with him in his contempt for democracy.
There is also an economic argument that weighs heavily in both Brazil and Mexico: both countries are dependent on Russian fertilizer supplies for their agriculture.
"The question of fertilizers plays the same role in Latin America as the energy problem in Europe," says an expert on the subject.
Brazil obtains a large part of its potassium for the soybean and corn plantations of the agricultural industry from Russia and Belarus, Mexico needs the substance mainly for corn, the raw material for its tortillas.
Sanctions against Putin would inflate food prices
China has largely failed as a supplier due to the corona pandemic.
Fertilizer export sanctions imposed on Russia and Belarus over the invasion of Ukraine would exacerbate the dramatic rise in food prices in Latin America's two largest economies.
Bolsonaro had traveled to Putin to negotiate this issue as well.
Presidential elections are in Brazil in October, and Bolsonaro is seeking a second term.
A further rise in high food inflation would further dent its already underwhelming outlook.
International observers are increasingly frustrated as skeptics in the major Latin American countries are talking down a clear condemnation of the aggressor Putin.
A young leftist, of all people, proves that there is another way: "Russia chose war to solve conflicts," tweeted Chile's elected head of state Gabriel Boric, who takes office in March, on Thursday.
"From Chile we condemn the invasion of Ukraine, the violation of its sovereignty and the illegitimate use of force."
The former student leader expressed his solidarity with the victims and offered "his humble services" to help restore peace.
