War in Ukraine: how far will Russia go?

Created: 02/27/2022, 04:48 am

By: Peter Rutkowski

The war in Ukraine is unlikely to stop at the Donbass borders.

An analysis by Peter Rutkowski.

KIEV/Moscow – A rush has it that the first casualty of war is truth, and so it is wise to turn everything that comes after into its opposite.

Vladimir Putin* speaks of a “limited military operation” in Ukraine*.

So it can also be unlimited.

If it were only about the Donbass, i.e. the two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, it would be enough to launch diversionary maneuvers on the front there, advance into the area from the north and south and encircle the Ukrainian troops.

To all appearances, nothing of the sort is happening.

Russian troops have landed on the Black Sea coast near Odessa, Russian-Belarusian units are advancing from Belarus east of the Dnieper towards Kiev.

Other units are heading towards Kharkiv.

Russian rocket artillery, jets and attack helicopters destroy the bases of the Ukrainian air force far to the west, in Ivano-Frankivsk.

All a “limited operation” to save Donbass from Ukrainian terror bombings that exist only in Russian propaganda?

Russian invasion of Ukraine: how far west does Putin plan to attack?

Actually, Moscow's intentions are pretty clear: without the resources, heavy industry and extensive agriculture, especially in the fertile southern Ukraine, Russia* is doomed to retarding to becoming a regional middle power.

One player among others - albeit with a gigantic hinterland stretching as far as the Far East, which is still largely undeveloped even after almost 200 years of imperial rule.

Russia has always been pushing west for centuries - it's a geopolitical constant.

How far west?

As is well known, the Eastern Bloc reached right into the middle of Germany, everything east of it belonged to the Soviet Empire, which continued tsarist policies in its foreign policy from day one in 1917.

In the run-up to the invasion, Putin demanded that NATO* should withdraw beyond the line of its first eastward expansion in 1997.

That means: The Baltic States, Poland, Belarus and Ukraine would then be in the new Russian sphere of influence.

All countries that have been directly under Russian rule before.

After a bomb attack by Russian troops on the eastern Ukrainian city of Chuguev, Ukrainian firefighters extinguish a burning apartment building.

© Aris Messinis/AFP

Russia-Ukraine conflict: threatening scenarios for other neighboring countries

Such an expansion of Russia is not absolutely probable.

Because in one of these countries, the pain threshold would probably be reached, after which NATO would have no choice but to intervene directly militarily.

And then there would be shooting on the Oder-Neisse front.

But Russia doesn't need all of these countries to emerge as a world power.

(By the way, Belarus is already a pure puppet.) The Ukraine is quite enough.

And it doesn't even need their entire territory.

Moldova has the eastern region of Transnistria and a region further south called Gagauzia, both of which have long been professed to Russia.

Moldova could hardly defend itself seriously against their separation.

And the country is in a certain competition with Romania, which in turn would be somewhere between a Russian southern Ukraine and a Serbia traditionally oriented towards Russia.

Since Serbia's neighbor Bosnia-Herzegovina could disintegrate, there would be a Russian sphere of influence for the first time that can be seen from the Adriatic Sea.

Hungary, at least currently a rather anti-European shaky candidate, could be persuaded by Moscow to reorient to the east.

Analysis of the Russian attack on Ukraine: There are different scenarios

And what about Ukraine?

Russia could envisage three target lines there: first, an arc from Donbass to Romania/Moldova.

Thus Ukraine would be cut off from the sea.

Second: Conquest of eastern Ukraine up to the Dnieper and the agrarian south.

Ukraine would then be largely deprived of its riches.

Third: Conquest of Ukraine except for the far west – Galicia or the West Ukrainian People's Republic around Lviv that existed in 1918/1919.

This could give Moscow a land bridge to Hungary.

And from the Ukraine there would remain a southern Polish appendix.

(Peter Rutkowski)