By Alexander
Smith
Where does Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to stop?
That is the question that has propelled the United States and its allies into a new and uncertain era, driving a wedge between East and West not seen since the Cold War and conjuring up fears of worst-case scenarios that were hard to fathom days ago.
Putin always knew that the United States and Western Europe would not intervene militarily when he launched his invasion last week.
The White House and other governments have always made it clear that they would not stand up to Russia, the country with the world's largest nuclear arsenal, in defense of Ukraine, which is not a member of NATO.
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But the same does not happen with Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, which are members of the alliance.
That means they would, in theory, enjoy the protection of NATO's Article 5, the principle that all allies, including the United States, would come to the aid of any member attacked.
For the Baltic states in particular, Putin's threats against Ukraine are considered a de facto threat against them.
He said that he sees Ukraine as a historically Russian land, a territorial claim that he too could make over them.
This trio of northern European nations - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia - do not have the same cultural and linguistic ties to Russia as Ukraine.
But they have been ruled by Moscow for much of the last 200 years, first under the Russian Empire and then under the Soviet Union.
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They all voted for independence from the USSR in 1991 and joined NATO in 2004, a fact that forms part of Putin's long list of grievances against the West.
Putin's aim to "turn history upside down and return to where Russia was over 100 years ago is directly affecting other neighbors as well," Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, a London think tank, told us. sister network NBC News last week.
"This means Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Finland," he noted.
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If the Russian president's campaign is successful in Ukraine, Putin could turn his attention to Moldova or Georgia, two former Soviet republics that today have breakaway regions occupied by Russian troops, according to Karin von Hippel, a former State Department senior non-political adviser under the former President Barack Obama.
Neither Moldova nor Georgia are members of NATO.
But if Putin "starts to slowly expand his empire, there are going to be a number of other places that are in NATO that are going to be very stressed," said von Hippel, director general of the Royal United Services Institute in London.
Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, such a scenario seemed unthinkable.
In November, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson told lawmakers they had to recognize that "the old concepts of waging big tank battles on the European landmass are over."
By launching his attack on a European democracy, Putin has shattered that preconception.
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Russian forces have met stronger than expected resistance in Ukraine.
But Western intelligence officials and pundits believe Putin's plan is to seize control of the capital, possibly to install a new regime more favorable to Moscow.
The conflict has also seen Putin entrench himself further in Belarus, his ally bordering Poland and Lithuania, which seemed more like a satellite state after hosting some of the Russian troops who rolled into Kiev.
There is great uncertainty about how far the Russian leader intends to go in Ukraine, and Washington's allies in the Baltic are alarmed that he may not stop in Ukraine.
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Lithuania announced a state of emergency on Thursday, and Estonia and Latvia called for urgent security talks.
The three Baltic nations have said they will ban Russian commercial flights in their airspace.
In recent weeks, the leaders of these governments have flocked to European capitals to warn that if Putin is not deterred in Ukraine, he may be emboldened to extend his reach elsewhere.
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"The battle for Ukraine is a battle for Europe," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned earlier this month.
“If Putin is not stopped there, he will go further,” he stated.
Others are not so worried.
Admiral James Stavridis, NATO's former Supreme Allied Commander, pointed to the alliance's relative military strength, saying last week that he was confident "Putin will not cross a NATO border the way he has crossed this Ukrainian border."
Still, for the first time in its 73-year history, NATO said after Putin's invasion that it was deploying its combat-ready "response force" to Eastern Europe and reminded Russia that NATO's commitment to article 5 was “iron”.
It has been a clarifying moment for the transatlantic alliance, which struggled to find relevance after the Cold War, and which in recent years had been called "obsolete" by former President Donald Trump and "brainless" by French President Emmanuel Macron.
The sight of tanks entering Ukraine has given new meaning to the alliance.
Sweden and Finland joined their emergency summit last week, leading to speculation that they might even end their policy of military neutrality adopted since World War Two and try to join.
[NATO activates its defense troops for the first time in history to deter Russia from extending its attack to other countries]
That idea was met with a warning of "military consequences" from Moscow's foreign affairs spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova.
Russia is pushing Finland "closer than ever" to joining NATO, former Finnish Prime Minister Alexander Stubb wrote on Twitter.
“At this rate we have no choice but to unite.
Finland's accession would strengthen the Alliance and help maintain stability in Northern Europe," he said.
Whether it happens or not, it is undeniable that the margin of escalation and miscalculation between Russia and NATO -which has three nuclear powers: the United States, the United Kingdom and France- has widened.
The crisis has also left Russia more isolated than at any time since the end of the Cold War, doomed by protests and banned from various sporting and entertainment events.
In a major policy shift, Germany said on Saturday it would send anti-tank weapons and surface-to-air missiles to Ukraine and described Putin's invasion as a "turning point."
Even Russia's newest allies in the region, such as Hungary and the Czech Republic, were quick to censure the Kremlin for the invasion.
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Putin, seen by many as a prudent tactician, ranted on camera calling the Ukrainian government "drug addicts and neo-Nazis" while ordering a military assault on his democratic neighbor.
The question now is how far his ambitions reach.
“It is not very clear at this point,” von Hippel noted, “that anyone can convince Putin to do anything other than what he wants to do.”