Analysis: Biden addresses an anxious world as Putin makes nuclear threats

What will Biden talk about in his State of the Union address?

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(CNN) --

As Russian President Vladimir Putin shocks the West with nuclear threats, President Joe Biden faces an even tougher task than expected in Tuesday's State of the Union address.

It must acknowledge the weariness, suffering and pessimism in a nation exhausted by the covid-19 pandemic, rocked by rising inflation and high gas prices and now thrown suddenly by the Russian invasion of Ukraine into the worst geopolitical crisis since collapse of the Soviet Union.

In addition, he must somehow conjure up optimism about better times to come before this year's midterm elections, as he faces declining confidence among Americans that he has the plans, the skills and the resistance to end crises.

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At the same time, the president needs to send a message of determination from the United States in the face of fears that the Ukraine crisis will spin out of control and trigger a direct confrontation with Russia, which is the country with the most nuclear warheads in the world.

But any further escalation with Putin, who on Sunday ordered the nuclear alert raised, carries significant risks.

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The Russian invasion of Ukraine broke 30 years of relative peace in Europe after the end of the Cold War.

The battle for Ukraine is the first real fight in the new war for dominance between autocracy and democracy, which the president has long predicted.

Ukraine resists: Kyiv residents defend themselves with barricades 2:59

Biden faces a rhetorical balancing act.

He has to avoid the impression that his role as leader of the free world is distracting him from the economic pain, rising crime, and cascading internal crises that he inherited and promised to fix, but has yet to do so.

The bleak political environment for Democrats — in part bequeathed by a president whose approval rating has fallen to 40% in the CNN average of the most recent national polls — is already playing out in budding 2022 election campaigns around the country. country, where Democrats are discovering that strong job growth and economic rebound despite the omicron wave are being masked by rising commodity prices.

The Ukrainian crisis does nothing but increase gas prices.

The Biden administration argues that it has amassed a strong record of success, including rolling out millions of doses of vaccine, a pandemic relief plan that slashed child poverty and a bipartisan infrastructure bill that eluded three recent presidents.

But Biden's social spending and climate change bill has stalled, due to obstruction by two moderate Senate Democrats, much to the dismay of progressive base voters.

Biden was never able to connect the long-term benefits of increased home health care for the elderly, free preschool education, and extensive spending on next-generation energy sources with the immediate economic pain Americans have suffered.

The fate of his agenda may depend on Biden finally doing it this Tuesday night.

When administration officials highlight the number of months of positive job growth or other statistics showing progress, they may be making a "technically correct" case, said Matt Mackowiak, a Texas-based Republican strategist and party chairman. county.

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But he added: "It just doesn't reflect the mood right now."

And the news from Ukraine only complicates Biden's efforts to connect with those everyday concerns.

Responding to Russia

As Putin faces stronger-than-expected resistance in Ukraine, US officials and their allies are trying to anticipate his next moves, as satellite images showed a 40-mile-long Russian military convoy reaching the outskirts of Kiev, the Ukrainian capital.

Following a classified briefing late Monday, several senators said they expect Russia to step up its invasion, while calling for more military and humanitarian aid.

The UN confirmed on Monday that more than 500,000 refugees have fled Ukraine.

And the grave danger facing those left behind was heightened when Russian forces shelled a residential area in Kharkiv, killing nine civilians, including three children, according to the city's mayor.

Another 37 people were injured.

Late Monday night, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of war crimes in describing the attack on Kharkiv from aircraft artillery, noting that Russian forces have launched 56 missile strikes and 113 cruise missiles in Ukraine over the course of five days.

"Kharkiv is a peaceful city. There are quiet residential areas, there are no military installations. Dozens of eyewitness testimonies show that this is not a single false barrage, but a deliberate destruction of people: the Russians knew where they were shooting," he said. Zelensky.

"There will definitely be an international court for this crime: it is a violation of all conventions. No one in the world will forgive them for killing peaceful Ukrainians."

The Biden administration hopes that the financial sanctions that have been imposed on Putin, his inner circle and the Russian economy in general will hasten the resolution of the crisis, since Russia finds itself in an increasingly isolated position, largely isolated. of the world banking system.

On Monday, the ruble plunged to a record low against the dollar and the Russian central bank more than doubled interest rates to 20%.

White House press secretary Jen Psaki said Monday that Biden will use his Tuesday speech to highlight the global coalition he helped build to sanction Russia, as well as the steps he has taken to "mitigate the impact of the President Putin's invasion of Ukraine, on the world economy and on the American people.

She argued that Putin, through his actions, has become "one of the greatest NATO unifiers in modern history," another topic Biden is sure to touch on Tuesday.

The possible scenarios for the Russian economy after the invasion of Ukraine 3:34

Biden ran for president touting his ability to repair and rebuild alliances abroad after four turbulent years under former President Donald Trump.

Although he did not initially expect Ukraine to be one of the central themes of his State of the Union address, he may now be able to point to the united front of the United States and its allies against Russia as proof of the fruits of that work.

Although it is still too early in the conflict to predict how voters will assess Biden's handling of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, only 42% of Americans in a new CNN/SSRS poll say they trust him at least moderately. to make the right decisions regarding the situation in Ukraine, a number that is in line with both his overall approval rating and the country's deep polarization.

Although his speech is now expected to be more focused on foreign policy, the president has yet to show how he is trying to lead the nation out of the covid-19 pandemic, while also facing the sour mood of the Voters affected by inflation and high gasoline prices, a problem that may worsen as Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices are likely to soar to $115 a barrel after the Russian invasion.

In another ominous sign for Biden, after consumer prices rose to a nearly 40-year high in January, economists at the investment bank warned in a new report on Sunday that "the inflation outlook has worsened this winter." and "is now in question how much better it will be later this year."

On a positive note for Biden, the third spring of the pandemic is looking like the brightest.

In the days leading up to the prime-time speech, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) released new covid-19 data suggesting that only about 28 % of Americans live in a county where they need to wear masks indoors, a sign that the pandemic is abating and people are returning to their normal lives.

The State of the Union coincides with the start of the 2022 elections

Biden's agenda faces its first test before he even speaks Tuesday, as Texas voters head to the polls in the nation's first congressional primary.

Anthony Trejo, a 39-year-old waiter from Houston who voted for Biden in 2020, said the president has handled the Russian invasion of Ukraine well because he has avoided direct military involvement.

"As much as we want to help, there are consequences to helping that can be pretty bad," Trejo said.

Biden, he said, "is in a no-win situation."

No one expects the midterm elections to be fought over Ukraine and foreign policy issues, but Democratic Rep. Lizzie Fletcher, who represents west Houston and its suburbs, said Americans have seen "really skillful, thoughtful and committed" and that "there is an opportunity for Americans to come together on this issue.

Still, the drag from Biden's low approval rating will be felt by Democrats even more acutely in red states like Texas, where Trump defeated Biden by 6 points, a slightly narrower margin than he earned four years earlier.

But few expect those Democratic gains to hold up in November, particularly when Trump -- who alienated many voters in the suburbs -- is not on the ballot.

Voters in key swing states looking for someone to blame for the pinch in their pockets give voice to the president's precarious position.

Texas voters from both parties told CNN they thought Biden and the Democratic Congress doled out too much Covid-related aid and benefits, even though previous aid packages began under Trump and were supported by Republicans.

Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel told reporters in a pre-state of the union rebuttal call Monday that Democrats were to blame for the pain in checkout lines and at the pumps, as well as what which he called a "confusing" orientation of covid-19 and the increase in crime in cities.

"The Republicans have the wind in their favor right now," Mackowiak said.

"We'll see how voters assess this Ukraine situation, we're still in the early hours. But one of the risks Democrats run is that if they talk more lightly about the economy, they risk making them seem really out of the loop." Unless you're already very, very rich and using your capital creatively, there are very few people who are doing really well right now, who feel like the economy is doing great."

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But James Aldrete, a Democratic strategist from Texas, said there are also risks for Republicans right now, as the GOP continues to test the limits on culture war issues, which have been brandished as a torch by the Republican governor of Texas Greg Abbott as he fends off challenges from his right.

"There's no question that Biden's numbers across the country are struggling. There's no question that Democrats are worried about that (potential) pullback in the suburban vote," Aldrete said.

But he said he is keeping a close eye on whether Republicans can hang on to college-educated voters as GOP candidates continue to adopt Trump-like rhetoric.

As Biden addresses the nation, the few competitive races in Texas are offering some evidence of how Democratic candidates can navigate the president's troubles this year.

Beto O'Rourke, the top Democrat challenging Abbott who narrowly lost his bid in 2018, has kept his focus on last year's power grid failures that left millions of Texans without power or running water amid temperatures below zero.

He has blamed rising electricity costs and utility bills on Abbott, shifting the focus to pocketbook concerns more tied to Austin than Washington.

"No one really asks me about Congress or President Biden or federal issues," O'Rourke said in a recent interview in Brownsville while knocking on doors.

"They want Texas to be on the right track," he said.

Eric Bradner contributed to this report.

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