The fifth wave of the epidemic is out of control, and the number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong in a single day continues to hit new highs.
The team of the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong announced today (1st) the latest projections. As of yesterday, it is estimated that the cumulative number of infected people in the fifth wave of the epidemic has reached 1.7 million. The epidemic is expected to peak in about a week or so, with about 183,000 new cases per day It is estimated that the epidemic will continue until the end of April, and the cumulative death toll will reach 4,645.
When the fifth wave of the epidemic is over, a maximum of 4.3 million people in Hong Kong, or 58% of the population of Hong Kong, may be infected.
As for the nationwide testing that the authorities are planning, the team recommends that it should be postponed to mid or late April, noting that it may be counterproductive to implement nationwide testing when the number of infections is at a daily record high, and isolation and treatment facilities are insufficient.
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It is estimated that an average of 156 patients died at the end of April
The Hong Kong University School of Medicine team updated the study, pointing out that as of February 28, the cumulative number of infected people in the fifth wave of the epidemic was estimated to reach 1.7 million, with a confidence interval of 320,000 to 2.86 million; and it is expected that the epidemic will peak in the next week or so. There were about 182,738 new cases per day, with a confidence interval of 36,794 to 263,300.
The study also pointed out that under the current epidemic situation, if the pressure on the medical system cannot be relieved in the short term, the vaccination rate of the elderly in residential homes cannot be rapidly increased, and the new oral antiviral drugs cannot be widely used immediately, the number of deaths is expected to decrease by mid-March. At its peak, it is estimated that there will be 156 new deaths per day by then, with a confidence interval of 46 to 184.
When the outbreak lasts until the end of April, the cumulative death toll will reach 4,645, with a confidence interval of 3,143 to 5,568.
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Social distancing measures eased before April, epidemic will worsen
The team pointed out that if social distancing measures are relaxed before April due to anti-epidemic fatigue or other economic considerations, the epidemic will rise again.
Before the end of April, if the virus is still spreading in the community, it is necessary to maintain a certain degree of social distancing measures, reducing the level of daily social contact by at least 35%, otherwise the number of infections will rise.
The current measures can reduce the level of daily social contact by about 70%.
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The high number of infections should not be carried out too early to implement universal testing
The team mentioned that the start of nationwide testing should be postponed to mid or late April, because the number of infected people in the population should be at a very low level at that time, which can maximize the benefits of universal testing, cut off the virus transmission chain in the community, and achieve true results. of clearing.
On the contrary, if the number of infections remains high and isolation and treatment facilities are insufficient, implementing universal testing too early may be counterproductive and more likely to affect public acceptance and cooperation.
▼On February 28th, public supermarkets rushed to buy food▼
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Confirmed Buildings｜The number of new listings dropped to 56 Tin Hau Parkview Terrace and Hung Hom Harbour Plaza on the list Epidemic situation ︱ Director of Land and Development, Lai Cheuk-ho, on the first day of his appointment, his wife initially tested negative for WFH epidemic ︱ Imported refrigerated milk from Macau via Hong Kong The packaging film tested positive has been destroyed and all people have tested it | Long queues in supermarkets continue, citizens are not afraid of grounding: there is usually a Fangcang shelter hospital that stores food | Tsing Yi community isolation facility is opened The full union reaches 144%. Medical care: the mechanism of transfer to hospital
