Ukraine War: Experts Concerned - Are Foodstuffs Running Out Now?

Created: 02/03/2022 16:29

The Ukraine war also raises concerns about food shortages.

© Ivan Rodionov/Imago Images

Ukraine is a major producer of wheat.

The aftermath of the war is likely to have a noticeable impact on the food supply.

Dramatic consequences are imminent in some regions of the world.

Brussels – Various aid organizations and associations warn of the consequences of the Ukraine war* for food production.

While rising costs in particular are currently expected for the EU, the effects for countries south of the Union could be far more dramatic.

Because more than half of the food that the World Food Program of the United Nations (WFP) distributes in crisis regions, according to its own information, comes from Ukraine.

Ukraine war: effects will be felt "beyond the borders of the regions"

“Putin's* war is not only wreaking untold suffering on Ukraine.

The effects will be felt well beyond the region's borders,” said WFP Germany Director Martin Frick.

The WFP is active in more than 80 countries.

Almost 280 million people are already affected by acute hunger.

The world cannot afford another conflict.

Ukraine is also an important partner in agricultural trade for the European Union.

"Ukraine is the EU's fourth largest external food supplier and supplies the EU with a quarter of its grain and vegetable oil imports," said the European farmers' association Copa Cogeca.

Spring sowing will begin in a few days, overshadowed by the military actions on Ukrainian territory.

This will have a major impact on the summer harvest.

In an initial assessment of the economic situation, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture announced that "a further increase in the price of food and an increase in the inflation rate cannot be ruled out".

Copa Cogeca also thinks higher prices are possible.

The EU agriculture ministers wanted to exchange views on the effects of the war at a video conference on Wednesday.

The German Farmers' Association recently announced that nitrogen fertilizer is already very expensive and scarce.

The nitrogen fertilizer, which is important for farmers, is made from natural gas - so if gas prices continue to rise due to the escalation, this would also drive up the costs for farmers.

Ukraine war: No bottlenecks expected in Germany and the EU

According to the current status, however, the associations and experts do not expect food shortages in Germany and the EU.

"To derive an immediate supply crisis from the current terrible situation of the war in Ukraine would overshoot the target by far," says Martin Banse, agricultural expert and head of the Thünen Institute for Market Analysis.

The Federal Ministry of Agriculture shares the view that countries in North Africa and Asia as well as Turkey, as the main importers, could be particularly affected.

According to ministry figures, Russia produces around ten percent of the world's wheat, and four percent comes from Ukraine.

Wheat imports are of great importance for countries in Africa, North Africa and West Asia.

For example, the cost of food was an important factor in the so-called Arab Spring, a series of mass protests.

"Social stability in these countries depends on the price of bread," says Banse.

War in Ukraine drives up wheat prices

Egypt - with more than 100 million inhabitants the most populous country in the Arab world - imports a large part of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine.

The same applies to Tunisia.

Poor people in particular there are in dire need of bread.

Experts in Tunisia are already warning of sharp price increases due to the war.

In the future, grain could come from Argentina or Romania, for example - but it is unclear whether that will be enough.

Other countries in West Asia face similar problems.

Turkey bought around 65 percent of its wheat from Russia in 2020.

Deteriorating relations with Moscow could make imports more expensive.

If, for example, bread prices rise again - Turkey is currently suffering from particularly high inflation - this could also further fuel anger against the government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

According to agricultural expert Banse, a possible supply gap cannot be closed by the EU in the short term.

Although it had long been an important supplier of wheat for these countries, it was then pushed out of the market by Ukraine and Russia.

In addition, the storage facilities in the EU are not particularly well filled.

"The warehouses are currently, I don't want to say empty, but quite empty, so that Europe cannot quickly step into the breach here in the short term," emphasizes Banse.