“The presidential debate in France must not be overshadowed by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict”

Benjamin Morel is a lecturer in public law at the University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas.

FIGAROVOX.

- What impact will the Russian-Ukrainian war have had on the French presidential campaign?

Benjamin Morel.

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It's too early to tell.

At this point, we can think that this will have two effects.

First, put at the center of the campaign the issue of the embodiment of the presidential function.

The important thing is basically, from the electoral point of view, not so much the good management of the crisis as the feeling that the voice of France is heard.

This is the first mission of a president.

However, more than a program, a campaign is based on an ethos and a vision of the world.

In this regard, if handled well, this campaign can really gain in quality.

Still, there has to be a campaign.

If we must not have a presidential campaign because of the war in Ukraine, which can be long, we are taking a real democratic risk.

If we postpone, which is not constitutionally possible here, an election each time another topic arises, we will not vote often.

Benjamin Morel

The second element is precisely a less treatment of the campaign.

It's becoming a real problem which is essentially linked, not to current events, but to the inclusion on the media agenda.

We did not have a municipal campaign because of the pension reform;

no departmental and regional campaign because of the Covid-19.

If we must not have a presidential campaign because of the war in Ukraine, which can be long, we are taking a real democratic risk.

If we postpone, which is not constitutionally possible here, an election each time another topic arises, we will not vote often.

For the good health of our democracy, the audiovisual media must learn to deal with more than one important subject at a time.

Read also Presidential 2022: "Are we witnessing the crash of French democracy?"

Did the Russian invasion have the effect of disqualifying the main opposition candidates, favorable to dialogue with Russia?

In the short term, these candidates are walking on a wire.

In the medium term, it is not certain that this is a fundamental motivation for the vote.

Their problem is twofold.

They must both deal with a past reference that is not easy to assume, and with a more timorous position regarding sanctions.

Let's be clear, it is impossible to exempt Vladimir Putin from full responsibility for this war.

On the other hand, it is possible to discuss the responses to be provided, the nature and level of sanctions.

The concern for these candidates is that, after making the apology for Russia, any nuance in the answer is seen as a sign of complacency.

Why does Emmanuel Macron choose to present himself as late as possible?

The bet at the start was double.

First, capitalize as much as possible on the Covid-19 sequence and the French presidency of the Union, precisely to embody the function.

Then, if the Macronian electorate is roughly happy with the results, it could prove to be very divided on the future and the project.

If Emmanuel Macron must hold the centre-right electorate to secure the first round, he needs the left-wing electorate for the second.

Presenting a project is therefore a Chinese puzzle.

Benjamin Morel

Moreover, if Emmanuel Macron must hold the center-right electorate to secure the first round, he needs the left-wing electorate for the second.

Presenting a project is therefore a Chinese puzzle.

The less time it will be detailed, and the more the campaign focuses on consensus issues, the better.

The concern, of course, is that Emmanuel Macron is now caught in his own trap.

Forced in an emergency to declare himself.