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Macron officially candidate: popularity, voting intentions... What the polls say

2022-03-03T19:50:06.636Z


Emmanuel Macron formalized, in a letter published by the regional press and Le Parisien - Today in France, his candidacy for a s


Barely officially a candidate, already certain of being re-elected?

Emmanuel Macron confirmed, this Thursday evening, that he would be in the running for his re-election next April.

"The challenge is to build the France of our children, not to rehash the France of our childhood," he wrote in an open letter published by regional press titles, including Le Parisien.

If he makes no mention of it, the Head of State certainly has in mind what the polls of voting intentions say.

Especially since less than six weeks before the first round, they are more favorable to him than ever.

While it was given around 24% of the votes (if the election were to take place on this date) in the first round by most institutes in recent weeks, the Head of State won 3 to 4 points in one week in the daily monitoring of Harris-Interactive and Ifop, now approaching 30%.

Read alsoPresidential: Emmanuel Macron, the secrets of a candidacy meticulously prepared for a year

This progression is most certainly linked to the war in Ukraine declared by Vladimir Putin.

Frédéric Dabi, director of Ifop, calls it a “flag effect”.

“This is especially true in such an unprecedented war in Europe.

Many French people close ranks behind Macron, who is very high in almost all categories.

There is a kind of catch-all, ”he analyzes with the Parisian.

Voting intentions on one side, popularity on the other

His main opponents, Marine Le Pen, Éric Zemmour and Valérie Pécresse, are at least 10 points behind.

It is the former journalist and polemicist who seems to have suffered the most from the current sequence, perhaps because of his displayed support for Russia.

In the second round, Emmanuel Macron would win regardless of the configuration.

The tightest score today would be against Marine Le Pen: between 53 and 60% versus 47 to 40% of the votes, according to the polling institutes.

Remember that the margins of error must be taken into account, and that these are photos of public opinion at the moment T. The French are not yet sure of going to vote, for example, are usually ignored in surveys.

However, they represent almost half of the population.

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Be careful not to confuse voting intention polls with popularity polls.

This consists in knowing whether the French are satisfied, or not, with the policy pursued by a political leader, in this case by Emmanuel Macron.

Each institute chooses the question it asks respondents.

In the latest Elabe barometer for Les Echos and Radio Classique, published on Tuesday, 40% of French people questioned answer that they trust Emmanuel Macron "to effectively tackle the main problems facing the country".

This rate is up five months in one month.

Same evolution for Kantar Public and Epoka in partnership with Le Figaro Magazine, according to which the presidential confidence rating even reaches 45%.

"Already three rebounds" before the war in Ukraine

In both cases, such scores had not been achieved since the very beginning of the Macron presidency.

The rise is very clear and almost continuous compared to its lowest level reached in December 2018, in the midst of the Yellow Vests crisis.

The Head of State had then fallen to almost 20% confidence.

"It had actually already experienced three fairly clear rebounds: in the fall of 2017 with the labor laws, in 2018 with the Great Debate and the European campaign, and finally 2020-2021 with the Covid crisis", analyzes Frédéric Dabi.

For the HuffPost, the Yougov institute asks the French people what judgment they make "on the action of Emmanuel Macron as President of the Republic".

31% answered “favorable” in January, according to the latest known results.

This time, we are at levels lower than those reached at the beginning of 2018, but still on an upward trend for more than three years.

In short, all the lights are green.

But the campaign still has its share of surprises.

Source: leparis

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