Zelensky reaffirms that he must talk to Putin to stop the war 0:59
Editor's note:
Dennis Ross, a former US envoy to the Middle East, is the William Davidson Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
He has decades of experience in Soviet and Middle Eastern politics, having worked closely with presidents and state secretaries of both parties.
Norman Eisen, a former US envoy to the Czech Republic, is a senior fellow at Brookings and served as White House ethics czar.
He is the author of two books on Central and Eastern Europe, "The Last Palace" and "Democracy's Defenders".
The opinions expressed in this comment are my own.
See more at cnne.com/opinion
(CNN) --
As Russian leader Vladimir Putin continues his ferocious bombardment of Ukraine's cities and people, it may seem premature to consider what a negotiated solution -- an exit strategy -- to the invasion would look like.
But as former ambassadors who have worked extensively in the region, we believe that finding a way to end the war and stop the bloodshed is necessary, and it will require negotiation.
Russia-Ukraine War: Breaking News and Negotiations and Invasion
That reality is clearly appreciated by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who has sought genuine negotiations, including asking the Israelis to mediate.
Putin has given his consent to the talks, but he still seems more interested in beheading the Ukrainian government than negotiating with it.
However, it is not too early to think about what could be the bases of an eventual negotiated result.
Of course, the viability of any solution will depend on the course of the war in the coming days and weeks.
As of this writing, there are signs that the Putin-led effort is still hell-bent on overthrowing the democratically elected government in Kyiv and replacing it with a Kremlin-friendly puppet regime whose strings can be pulled from Moscow.
With missiles destroying buildings and killing civilians in Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kyiv, and Russia's foreign minister continuing to warn of further escalation, there is little reason to hope for an immediate de-escalation in hostilities.
But given the devastating effects of the West's economic countermeasures, which are accelerating by the day, and the costs the Ukrainians have inflicted on the Russian military, Putin may need to find a way out if the Ukrainians manage to hold out for weeks to come. .
Indeed, during that time, financial pressures, Russian deaths, and internal unrest may become so painful that Putin may find a way out.
In that scenario, any serious step towards a negotiated solution would still be some distance away and would be heavily determined by the outcome of the invasion.
If the war fails to deliver a decisive victory for Russia, Ukraine may come to the negotiating table with greater advantages.
In fact, even if the Ukrainian war and resistance drag on longer, indefinite Russian occupation or a frozen conflict throughout the country are not sustainable paths for either the Russians or the Ukrainians.
Similarly, the Russian economy is unlikely to survive under the perpetual weight of current and future sanctions.
The camera of this car recorded a fearsome explosion in Ukraine 0:40
Something must change.
The first round of talks between the two sides produced little more than a tentative plan for future negotiations, with the second round taking place on Thursday.
We have little hope that any real progress will be made.
Clearly, Putin seems unready for that and probably believes that if he can't remove the regime, he needs to intensify the pain to force concessions.
Still, the two sides are talking.
Sooner or later, if an agreement is to be reached, both sides will have to make concessions.
We are not happy to articulate that reality given the heroic behavior of Ukraine and the abhorrent behavior of Putin's Russia, but it is a fact of every negotiation.
What could those concessions be?
On the Ukrainian side, Zelensky probably already understands that he will have to promise that Ukraine will not join NATO.
This is the core of Putin's alleged rationale for the invasion, and he is unlikely to back down from the core demand of it.
Putin will undoubtedly push for demilitarization in Ukraine, and it will be a failure for the Ukrainians.
But they may well be willing to say that once peace is clearly established, they will accept limitations on the number and types of weapons they will keep, and they will also accept not having foreign forces based in Ukraine.
Protections must be built if there is an external threat to Ukraine.
Perhaps the hardest thing for Kyiv to digest: Crimea is, to all intents and purposes, destined to remain under Russian rule, and Luhansk and Donetsk are likely to be granted significant autonomy within the Ukrainian system.
That, of course, would be consistent with the Minsk II plan, which provided for decentralization and local self-government for the regions.
Putin, whose obsession with protecting Russian-speakers from the alleged depredations of the Ukrainian state is central to his grievances, will resist giving up the territorial foothold that Russian-backed separatists have helped establish for him in those places over the past eight years. years.
All that said, the Ukrainian government and people will not concede too much after having so bravely resisted Putin's brazen attacks on citizens and non-military infrastructure.
As noted above, Ukraine will not demilitarize, as the Kremlin has demanded.
And if we are to understand Putin's absurd justifications correctly, Ukraine will not undergo "denazification" by overthrowing its own democratically elected government led by a president who happens to be Jewish.
For all that it will sacrifice, Ukraine will expect proportional concessions from Russia.
Chief among them will be the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine.
The withdrawal will have to be accompanied by a drastic reduction of Russian forces outside Ukraine's borders, including in eastern Ukraine, Belarus and the Black Sea.
The Ukrainian government and people cannot be expected to rebuild and return to their peacetime lives with Russian boots, tanks and warships floating near Ukraine's borders.
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These de-escalation movements would be linked to the gradual lifting of sanctions by countries around the world;
The United States, the United Kingdom, and the nations of the European Union are chief among them.
Russia's compliance with the deal should be closely monitored, with the possibility that any phased-out sanctions could be reinstated should Russia back down.
As the Russian invasion continues, what is the rest of the world to do?
First, Ukraine's allies must keep the resupply pipeline open.
The highway for weapons, medical supplies and other crucial wartime needs should not be closed until Russia has shown that it negotiated in good faith and that it intends to abide by the terms of any resulting agreement.
We fully agree with President Joe Biden that a no-fly zone should not be imposed over Ukraine and that US and NATO forces should not be stationed there.
In short, a nuclear superpower is not cornered.
Never mind that Russia's president has finally caught up with his own miscalculations.
His nuclear threats reflect not his strength but his weakness.
We don't want to create a situation that leaves you with no choice but to escalate, which could set in motion a chain of events that take on a catastrophic momentum of their own.
Some analysts and commentators have drawn scenarios in which no further trading ever happens, and they might be right.
Putin could succeed in overthrowing Zelensky and his administration.
Ironically, if he does so, he will come at great cost to his forces, and the puppet regime he would impose would also be severely sanctioned, making Putin responsible for yet another possible economic basket case along with the one he is engineering. in your own country.
Alternatively, the cost of the war in Russian lives and the serious economic downturn that Russia will suffer could combine to spur Russian protests and threaten Putin's grip on power.
Either of these outcomes is certainly possible.
But if the Ukrainians can resist and hold out long enough, we suspect that the war of the coming weeks and its associated agonies (human, economic, political and social) may well push both sides into further negotiations.
If that happens, neither side will get everything they want.
Morality is black and white here, but diplomacy rarely is.
The concessions that come with negotiations are often painful.
But our experience has taught us that they are infinitely preferable to the indefinite continuation of hostilities, and even when conflicts are fueled by an irrational actor like Putin, the logic of diplomacy can take hold.
We pray that is the case here.
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Russian invasion of Ukraine Vladimir Putin