How far will Russian imperialism go?
Will Vladimir Putin “unfreeze” the conflict in Transnistria, where between 1,000 and 1,500 Russian occupation soldiers are stationed?
"
We are worried about the future
," confirmed Jean-Yves Le Drian, Minister of Foreign Affairs.
“
We stand alongside Moldova and Georgia to defend their sovereignty and their security
”, insists, for his part, Emmanuel Macron.
Indeed, the Ukrainian port of Odessa, under Russian fire, is only 40 km from the Moldovan border.
If Chisinau does not support European sanctions, its airspace is closed and a state of emergency is declared for 60 days.
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“
Moldova watches, circumspectly, its neighbor suffer an attack with a form of palpable concern.
The question arises: what is Putin's objective?
Could he go further?
For the moment, the dynamics of the conflict remain unclear
”, testifies Florent Parmentier, teacher at Sciences Po Paris and specialist in the geopolitics of Eastern Europe.
The country of 3 million inhabitants is already feeling the collateral effects of the war and is hosting around 70,000 Ukrainian refugees.
“
The equivalent of 3% of the population in five days.
By comparison, it's as if France welcomed 1.8 million people
, ”notes the teacher.
The Russian influence still very present
Despite "
a very shared feeling of solidarity with Ukraine
Moldova insists on its neutrality.
Since 1994, article 11 of its Constitution provides for permanent neutrality, but also the non-acceptance of foreign occupation.
Chisinau repeatedly demanded the departure of Russian occupation forces from Transnistria - about 1500 soldiers.
After Moldovan independence in August 1991, just before the fall of the USSR, this eastern region, mainly populated by Russian speakers, declared its independence in turn and a war was waged against the Moldovan authorities.
Under the supervision of Moscow, an agreement recognizes the autonomy of the region and the possibility of a self-determination referendum in the event of the reunification of Moldova with Romania.
Since then, no major operation has
was engaged against the rebel region which has a government, a currency and some armed forces.
Its 500,000 inhabitants continue to live in an astonishing setting resembling a miniature USSR with red flags, hammers and sickles, and statues glorifying communism in the capital, Tiraspol.
Russia has oscillated since the end of the conflict between two options: recognition of the self-proclaimed separatist republic and broader control over Moldovan politics
via
the reintegration of Transnistria into a Moldova close to Russian interests or far from NATO.
In 2020, Maia Sandu, pro-European, wins the presidential election and dethrones Igor Dogon, closer to Russia.
Since 2016, an association agreement with the European Union has gradually unlinked the country from Russia, despite a strong dependence on gas imports.
Donbass scenario
The presence of Russian troops, officially to protect "
Russian minorities
", and Moscow's desire to preserve the country's neutrality is partly reminiscent of the Ukrainian scenario.
Moreover, the establishment of numerous military arsenals makes us fear the worst.
“
If the Russians take Odessa, we can imagine all kinds of
scenarios
.
Will Putin deem that the Russian troops stationed in Transnistria are sufficiently trained and efficient to carry out the siege of Odessa?
They can be mobilized, but there is no operational necessity
".
As for arms trafficking, which would generate a significant part of the income of the separatist region, the mission of the European Union on the border between Moldova and Ukraine estimated in 2006 that few arms actually transited.
"
While there are weapons in the area, the estimates are a bit overstated
."
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The other fear is that Moldova's membership of the European Union constitutes a casus belli for Moscow.
“
Russia seems unfavorable to Moldova's entry into the European Union.
Nevertheless, the various governments close to Russia could not obtain participation in the Eurasian union.
For Moscow, the most important thing is to settle the case of Transnistria in its own terms
,” said Florent Parmentier.
In fact, even the parties most favorable to the Kremlin no longer demand the exit from the association agreement with the European Union.
“
So there is a change.
Several Moldovan politicians have told me that, in their discussions with Russian officials, the latter spend a long time explaining the
“recalls the teacher.
For the moment, Russia is following its offensive plan and seems focused on the operation in Ukraine.
Florent Parmentier
Once the invasion of Ukraine is over, could Moldova be the next victim of Russian imperialism?
“
For the moment, Russia is following its offensive plan and seems focused on the operation in Ukraine.
It is difficult to know where this military adventure will land, but according to Moldova will adapt
,” explains Florent Parmentier.
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In order to strengthen NATO's presence on its eastern borders, France has sent reassurance forces to neighboring Romania, a few kilometers from Moldova.
“
Since the beginning of the crisis, relations between France and Moldova have been at the highest level since its independence.
Its president was received twice by Emmanuel Macron
”, recalls the researcher.
The presence of French troops on the border demonstrates, according to him, “
French investment in the region.
From this point of view, the return of French soldiers to a region where it has not been since the First World War, makes it possible to indicate our interest in Moldova
”.
A sign of this interest, Jean-Yves Le Drian is going to Moldova this Thursday.
