Kremlin expert draws two bitter future scenarios in the Ukraine war - and explains Putin's motivation

Created: 05/03/2022, 14:19

By: Sebastian Grauvogl

"How do you want to guarantee a person that an idea will not gain a foothold in his country?" World politics expert Ludwig Mailinger (r.) draws two possible scenarios for how the Ukraine war and Putin (l.) will continue.

In the background a destroyed street in Kyiv after a rocket attack.

© Alexei Nikolsky/Pool Sputnik Kremlin/AP/dpa/Genya Savilov/AFP/Thomas Plettenberg

Until 2017, Ludwig Mailinger had a direct connection to world politics, including to Kremlin representatives.

He is appalled by the escalation in Ukraine and draws two possible scenarios for an outcome.

Both are bad.

Miesbach

– As head of the liaison offices of the Hanns Seidel Foundation, Ludwig Mailinger from Miesbach had a direct line to world politics until 2017.

The 70-year-old was also present at talks with Kremlin representatives.

In the interview he analyzes the current developments in the Ukraine war.

In 2011, Mailinger picked up the most important Russian politician for him from Munich Airport (picture left): Mikhail Gorbachev.

© Miesbacher Merkur

Mr. Mailinger, in your career you have seen how much impact talks with Russia can have.

Now President Putin is letting the guns do the talking in Ukraine.

What are your feelings?

Ludwig Mailinger:

horror and bewilderment.

I believed to the end that Putin was bluffing to get a better deal.

Now he has shown that he was never about negotiations.

He is driven by a fear that in his world can only be fought with weapons.

The fear of the West, of NATO moving closer?

Ludwig Mailinger:

That's just a pretense.

Putin does not primarily fear NATO's military power and its encroachment on Ukraine.

For him, it's about something else: the spirit of freedom, democracy and market economy that has taken hold in all the states around Russia's western border and that is increasingly spreading in Russia as well.

Horrified by the current development: Ludwig Mailinger from Miesbach.

© Thomas Plettenberg

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But shouldn't he have already attacked the Baltic states?

Ludwig Mailinger:

He certainly didn't like the eastward expansion of NATO and the EU in the Baltic States, but they are small states.

Ukraine is in a different league.

More than 40 million people live here who yearn for freedom and independence and who want to and will defend it by all means.

So Putin sees himself as the new tsar?

Ludwig Mailinger:

That may be the case, but he does not do justice to this role in the spirit of Peter the Great.

He was a great reformer.

He would have modernized his country and shown his people: "What the West can do, we can do too." Putin is trying to stabilize the two pillars that support himself: the oligarchs and the functional elite, i.e. high-ranking and well-paid civil servants.

In this system, hardly any reforms are possible.

In April 2016, Ludwig Mailinger (l.) arranged a meeting between Federal MP Hans-Peter Uhl (2nd from left), member of state parliament Gerhard Hopp (r.) and then US Senator Jeff Sessions.

The latter was Attorney General in Donald Trump's cabinet.

© Miesbacher Merkur

So the West really didn't have a chance to slow him down diplomatically?

Ludwig Mailinger:

How do you guarantee a person that an idea will not gain a foothold in their country?

Better to play along and respond with sanctions and arms deliveries.

Doesn't that risk further escalation?

Ludwig Mailinger:

In my opinion there are two possibilities for a further development.

One would be a quick conquest of Ukraine by Russia.

In this case, President Zelensky would organize the underground resistance from exile, with the support of the West.

That would be a long, hard, costly path, but it would herald the end of Putin.

Also read: Reserve Lieutenant Colonel on Ukraine War: "Putin has gambled"

In what way?

Ludwig Mailinger:

With each additional fallen Russian soldier, the protests in his country and the opposition would grow stronger, and the economic sanctions would fuel the dissatisfaction of the people.

Eventually, this would catch up with the Kremlin, too, and Putin would be encouraged to retire.

And the other alternative?

Ludwig Mailinger:

If the Russians, in order to avoid a bloody house-to-house war, would not conquer Kiev but besiege it.

That would be the worse situation for the West.

Why?

Ludwig Mailinger:

Because the calls for help are getting louder every day.

They would no longer only be of a military, but of a humanitarian nature.

A pressure that the international community of states could not withstand for long.

The UN General Assembly could therefore decide on air surveillance for Ukraine, which has already been discussed, in order to ensure that the population is supplied with food.

Putin would interpret this as an attack by the West and respond accordingly.

That would put us on a ladder of escalation, the consequences of which we do not want to imagine.

Also interesting: Holzkirchner worried about the situation in Ukraine

The dreaded Third World War with nuclear weapons... How big do you think the danger is compared to your active time in the Cold War?

Ludwig Mailinger:

The situation has become more unpredictable.

Ever since Khrushchev, the West has been able to rely on decisions in the CPSU Politburo being made according to rational standards.

Mutual deterrence worked.

Putin is no longer accountable to any politburo.

He is only surrounded by yes-men.

This means that potentially irrational actions are also possible.

Putin's psychogram shows a man who has learned to assert himself.

Giving in and compromises are far from him.

However, as I said, I am assuming that his presidency will gradually come to an end.

How is this continuing?

Ludwig Mailinger:

Then the hour of the opposition will come.

The idea of ​​an economic modernization partnership also came up again quickly.

The good relations between Russia and Germany are only on hold, they are not destroyed forever.

It must be the goal of all of us to revive it when the time comes, because isolating Russia harms everyone.

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