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Russia's victory, escalation or coup against Putin: what's next in the Ukraine war?

2022-03-06T09:26:54.028Z


Russia's victory, escalation or coup against Putin: what's next in the Ukraine war? Created: 03/06/2022, 10:19 am By: Isabel Wetzel Russia continues the war in Ukraine. In which direction is the Ukraine conflict developing? An overview of possible scenarios. Kyiv – The situation in Ukraine* is tense. A week and a half after invading Ukraine, the Russian armed forces are increasing military pre


Russia's victory, escalation or coup against Putin: what's next in the Ukraine war?

Created: 03/06/2022, 10:19 am

By: Isabel Wetzel

Russia continues the war in Ukraine.

In which direction is the Ukraine conflict developing?

An overview of possible scenarios.

Kyiv – The situation in Ukraine* is tense.

A week and a half after invading Ukraine, the Russian armed forces are increasing military pressure on the neighboring country's major cities.

From the point of view of Western governments and experts, there are four possible scenarios for how the Ukraine conflict* could develop.

An overview:

1. Ukraine War Scenario: Military stalemate

The Ukrainian armed forces have so far been able to withstand the Russian invasion: important cities such as Kyiv*, Kharkiv and Mariupol are still under Ukrainian control.


Many Ukrainians have joined the defense units, and according to Defense Minister Olexii Reznikov, thousands have even returned from abroad to defend their homeland.

If the armed forces hold out long enough, they could use Western support and weakening Russia through sanctions to force a military stalemate—that is, a balance of power.

"The West's sanctions could persuade Putin to abandon his key war goal of beheading the Ukrainian government and installing a pro-Russian puppet," writes Samuel Charap of US think tank Rand Corporation.

A gunman stands near a barricade during an airstrike alert on Maidan Square in Kyiv - How much longer can Ukraine withstand Russia's attack?

© Vadim Ghirda/dpa

2. Scenario for the development of the Ukraine conflict: Political change in Russia

The likelihood of a popular uprising or coup d'état bringing down Putin currently seems slim, but observers do not rule out the possibility.

Smaller anti-war demonstrations have also taken place in many places in Russia* in the past few days and support for Putin is crumbling in the ruling elite: some oligarchs, MPs and even the private oil company Lukoil are calling for an end to the fighting in Ukraine.

"Putin's personal security is very good and will continue to be very good -- until it isn't," said Eliot A. Cohen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank in Washington.

"This has happened several times in Soviet and Russian history."

3rd Scenario: Russia succeeds in the war in Ukraine

Due to an undisputed military superiority, Western defense experts expect Russian troops to advance further in the next few days.

French President Emmanuel Macron concluded after several phone calls with Putin that "the worst is yet to come".

Putin wants to "take control of all of Ukraine".

But even if Russian troops depose Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and crush Ukrainian resistance, Moscow would still face the challenge of occupying a country of 40 million people.

"Invading a city is not the same as holding it," writes British war historian Lawrence Freedman of King's College London.

4. Scenario in the Ukraine war: escalation of the conflict

Ukraine borders four former Soviet states that are now part of NATO*.

If one member is attacked, this is considered an attack on the entire defensive alliance.

However, experts do not expect Putin to attack a NATO member directly and thereby risk a nuclear war.

But provocations by the Kremlin are quite possible.

Political scientist Samuel Charap warns of the "risks of an accident, incident or miscalculation that could lead to a war between NATO and Russia".

For example, a stray missile or a cyber attack could trigger an escalation of the war.

Fear of Nuclear War: What's the Truth About Putin's Threats?

A direct confrontation between NATO and Russia has so far been ruled out, as this would result in a nuclear war and mutual annihilation*.

However, Putin threatened the West with nuclear weapons by putting the nuclear deterrent forces on alert.

Observers believe that such threats are only intended to intimidate the US* and EU*.

"These announcements are aimed at Western audiences to scare us and unsettle our societies," said Gustav Gressel, missile defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

"They are insubstantial." (iwe/afp)

*fr.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA.

Source: merkur

All news articles on 2022-03-06

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