The price of wheat continues to climb to maddening levels, being displayed at 393 euros per tonne on Euronext on Friday, concerning the March deadline.
By way of comparison, the ton amounted to 284 euros in November.
With the war between Russia and Ukraine, "
everyone was expecting a surge in
gas prices
, I would never have imagined that cereals would reach such a level
", indicates economist Philippe Chalmin, specializing in raw materials.
Read alsoWar in Ukraine: France wants to boost wheat production
Due to the tensions, almost no ships sail the Black Sea, thus blocking wheat exports.
Problem, Russia and Ukraine represent 30% of world exports, with respectively 75 million and 33 million tonnes of wheat produced each year.
Russia is the world's leading exporter, and Ukraine the fourth, with 75% of its production going abroad.
Faced with the threat of a shortage of wheat, the Hungarian Minister of Agriculture announced on Friday to stop exports.
For this season, the country has already sold about 127,000 tons of soft wheat abroad.
Same observation for Moldova, which has temporarily suspended its exports of wheat, corn and sugar since the beginning of the month.
On the Bulgarian side, the authorities clarified at the beginning of the week that “
the State has the levers and mechanisms to prepare for a possible food crisis, while respecting the principles of the market
”.
China fears 'the worst harvest in its history'
In France, on the other hand, there is nothing to worry about in terms of production.
Indeed, "
French imports of common wheat represent on average only 2% of production over the last five campaigns
", mentioned the FranceAgriMer site in January 2020. According to Philippe Chalmin, "
France will be indirectly affected by rising prices, which will not be easy for breeders.
But the country could also take advantage of the situation
".
Indeed, France exports half of its production, mainly to North Africa.
The country could reach new customers such as Algeria, Morocco or Tunisia, which currently deal with Ukraine.
According to experts, the United States and India could also find new buyers for their wheat production.
These exchanges could arrive earlier than expected since China fears the "
worst harvest in its history
", according to a statement by the Minister of Agriculture on Saturday.
In question, rare abundant rains last year and a delay in planting.
There is therefore concern about the supply of cereals to the world's largest consumer of wheat, which is far from being self-sufficient in its production.
But Philippe Chalmin moderates: "
The Chinese will always be able to import Russian wheat by train, even if it loses quality
".
Internationally, some countries have already taken steps to increase their control over local products, such as Turkey and Argentina.
The Argentine government has thus intervened directly on the local wheat market to guarantee the supply of local millers and keep the prices of products as low as possible, such as flour or pasta.
According to the Ministry of Productive Development, 800,000 metric tons of wheat will be allocated to millers in the country.