Will the Amazon rainforest become a savannah?

Researchers say new data is 'threatening'

Created: 07/03/2022, 20:41

By: Christoph Gschossmann

A deforested area in the Amazon.

Zones close to human settlements are particularly affected by a possible change.

© Fernando Souza/ZUMA/dpa

The Amazon rainforest is considered a huge natural wonder.

But the area could change dramatically - a "tipping point" is imminent.

Munich - The Amazon rainforest is the green lung of the earth - but for how long?

Will the huge area in South America soon become a savannah?

Recent research makes this fear all too real.

Since the early 2000s, the Amazon has steadily lost resilience.

More than three quarters of forests have lost their ability to recover from disturbances such as drought or fire, according to a study by a British-German team of researchers published in the journal

.

Amazon region: satellite data as research data - worrying development

For their study, Niklas Boers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and his colleagues from the British University of Exeter statistically analyzed high-resolution satellite data on changes in biomass and productivity in the Amazon forest.

They attribute the declining resilience of the forest to the stress caused by deforestation and slash-and-burn; the influence of climate change has not yet been clearly ascertained.

In the words of Boers, it says: "Reduced resilience - the ability to recover from disturbances such as droughts or fires - can mean an increased risk of the Amazon rainforest dying off." To see such a loss of resilience is worrying.”

What has to happen to save the jungle?

The current analysis confirms that a strong limit on deforestation, but also a limit on global greenhouse gas emissions, is necessary to protect the Amazon, says Tim Lenton, Director of the Global Systems Institute (Exeter/UK) and also involved in the study.

Dry zones and areas close to settlements are particularly affected by possible changes

Two types of areas are particularly affected: dry zones and places near human settlements.

"This is alarming as the IPCC models predict a general drying out of the Amazon in response to human-caused global warming," says Boers.

The rainforest stores significant amounts of carbon and plays a key role in global climate and biodiversity.

It is considered one of the so-called tipping elements that can throw the world's climate out of balance.

The researchers fear that a large part of the Amazon region could turn into a savannah if a tipping point is exceeded.

"We cannot say when such a possible transition could take place," said Boers.

"By the time he's observed, it would probably be too late to stop him."

Tipping point for the Amazon region: droughts and floods could result

What could such a tipping point look like?

It has been estimated that a loss of 20 to 25 percent of forest cover in the Amazon Basin could be enough to reach the point.

Huge deserts could be a consequence - and the worldwide increase in droughts and floods.

The late US scientist Thomas Lovejoy and Brazilian researcher Carlos Nobre had determined that 17 percent of the original forest area had already disappeared.

Water shortages and drought prevailed in large parts of Brazil last year, which is also attributed to climate change and deforestation.

The country's share of the Amazon region corresponds to the size of Western Europe in terms of area.

It is therefore attributed a decisive role in climate protection.

Brazil's President Bolsonaro is exploiting the Amazon

Politics is not currently playing into the hands of the Amazon region either.

Right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro sees untapped economic potential in the Amazon region and wants to open up even more land for agriculture, mining and energy production.

For example, he issued a decree to promote gold mining in the Amazon region.

He recently justified the exploitation of indigenous areas to mine potassium for fertilizers with the Russian attack on Ukraine and the alleged threat of a shortage and increase in the price of potassium.

Deforestation in the Amazon region increased sharply during the tenure of Bolsonaro, who was elected president at the end of October 2018 and took office at the beginning of 2019, and has recently reached record levels.

Bolsonaro's policy is driving the Amazon rainforest "straight to the tipping point," said Roberto Maldonado, Brazil consultant for the environmental organization WWF, according to a statement.

By the end of his term in October, Bolsonaro wants to continue legalizing forest destruction for the production of feed soy and beef and transforming indigenous territories into lunar landscapes through mining.

Many European countries, including Germany, are responsible for purchasing the products.

People in Europe are partly to blame - feed soy contributes significantly to the destruction

In Europe, too, people are responsible for the poor health of the rainforest - especially those who eat meat often.

According to Greenpeace expert Gesche Jürgens, the import of meat and the feeding of livestock in Europe with forage soy from the Amazon contributes significantly to the destruction of the forest.

"The EU and Germany can and must therefore assume responsibility for the protection of the Amazon forest." The environmentalist calls for EU legislation for global forest protection that "really changes the market".

This is the only way to ensure "that large-scale products that are associated with forest destruction do not continue to end up on the EU internal market." This also includes rubber and corn.

According to the WWF, companies can and should change or discontinue these practices immediately.

According to the organization, companies should convert their supply chains to be deforestation-free.

"Products associated with deforestation, destruction of nature and human rights violations do not belong on the supermarket shelf," says WWF expert Maldonado.

He has not yet given up on the Amazon rainforest - even if the forecasts are currently bleaker than ever.