Gas and oil: delivery stop from Russia for Germany "manageable"
Created: 03/08/2022, 16:35
By: Lisa Mayerhofer
Many German citizens support a freeze on Russian gas and oil supplies, but the government opposes it.
(Iconic image) © Patrick Pleul/dpa-Zentralbild/ZB/Iconic image
The US plans to stop oil imports from Russia.
Many German citizens are also in favor of stopping gas and oil deliveries, but the government is against it.
Experts consider an embargo to be manageable.
Berlin/Moscow - The USA wants to stop oil imports from Russia because of the Ukraine war.
The import ban should be announced on Tuesday, the US broadcaster NBC reported.
With the new ban, however, the USA is pushing ahead without its European allies, who have not yet imposed any sanctions in this area.
However, the United States is also much less dependent on Russian energy than Europe.
Only seven percent of the oil imported by the USA comes from Russia.
Habeck warns of the consequences of a Russian gas and oil supply stop
However, many European countries like Germany have to import natural gas and oil.
In 2021, Germany received more than a third of its oil imports from Russia, and for gas it was even more than half of its deliveries.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) said on Monday that Europe had “deliberately” exempted energy supplies from Russia from sanctions during the Ukraine conflict*.
"There is currently no other way of securing Europe's supply of energy for heating, for mobility, for power supply and for industry," explained the Chancellor, referring to imports from Russia.
Federal Minister of Economics Robert Habeck (Greens) warned * of the consequences of not using Russian oil and gas: "We are then talking about a serious economic crisis in Germany and thus in Europe," he said on Tuesday on RTL's "Frühstart" program .
It's not about turning off the lights earlier at night.
"The point is that we're going to get corporate failures and unemployment," Habeck said.
One could say that peace is worth it.
“But then you have to persevere.
And we are not talking about three days and not about three weeks, but - I'll say it now - about three years," explained the Economics Minister.
Researchers on Russian energy embargo: "The lights would not go out"
However, according to a survey, the majority of Germans are in favor of stopping* oil and gas imports from Russia because of the Ukraine war.
In a survey conducted by the YouGov opinion research institute on behalf of the
Handelsblatt
, 54 percent stated that they were in favor of an embargo.
As a result of the conflict, fuel prices and heating oil prices have risen sharply.
Researchers have now drawn up the first scenarios of how badly a delivery stop from Russia could hit Germany.
In contrast to the politicians, they consider an embargo to be quite feasible.
"The lights would not go out," the
Handelsblatt
quoted economist Moritz Schularick from the University of Bonn as saying.
In the worst case, German economic output could collapse by up to 2.5 percent this year.
Of course, that means a sharp recession, "but it's not a doomsday scenario for the German economy."
After all: At the beginning of the corona pandemic, the German economy collapsed by five percent.
With suitable measures such as higher gas imports from other countries, replenishing the storage tanks in the summer and generating electricity from alternative sources such as nuclear energy or coal, the gap can be reduced to around 30 percent of gas consumption and eight percent of energy consumption, the researchers calculate, according to the
Handelsblatt
.
Leopoldina: Delivery stop of Russian gas "manageable"
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina also assumes that a short-term stop in the supply of Russian gas* would be "manageable" for the German economy.
To this end, the researchers published an ad hoc statement on Tuesday in Berlin on the rapid and long-term substitutability of natural gas from Russia.
In the short term, the scientists recommend importing liquefied gas, saving on natural gas and filling gas storage tanks as a buffer for the winter.
"In order to reduce the demand for natural gas, one could also rely on more coal-fired power generation," says the statement.
If necessary, additional costs would have to be cushioned for citizens and companies, for example by reducing energy taxes.
"In the medium term - within a year - Germany needs a robust reserve of energy sources, an expansion of liquid gas capacities and an upgrade of the gas network," it continues.
In the long term, i.e. within two to ten years, the expansion of the infrastructure for handling and importing hydrogen is recommended, as is the greater expansion of renewable energies.
Leopoldina: State regulation of the energy market necessary
In addition, the Leopoldina considers stronger state regulation of the energy market to be necessary.
The options ranged “from a completely state energy supply to a purely private energy supply under state regulation and supervision”.
However, politicians and society should not question the planned phase-out of coal in 2030.
"It helps to become independent of Russian coal imports, which account for 50 percent of coal imports to Germany," emphasized the researchers.
Even "existing effective mechanisms for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, above all emissions trading and its further development within the framework of the EU Green Deal", should "not be weakened".
"The current situation makes it necessary to push ahead with the conversion of the energy system even more energetically than before," emphasizes the Leopoldina.
What should also not be forgotten in the debate: Perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin will make the decision for Germany - by simply turning off the gas tap himself, as threatened on Monday.
With material from dpa and AFP
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