In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has intensified in recent days with attacks even against refugees fleeing bombing and blockades in large cities, President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday a ban on importing oil or Russian natural gas in the United States.
What consequences will this measure have when the price of gasoline in the United States has already reached its historical maximum?
This embargo would be more effective if it also included European allies, who are also desperate to stop the violence in Ukraine, but
it is not yet clear that the European Union and the United Kingdom will join in with an outright ban.
Unlike the United States, Europe relies heavily on the energy it imports from Russia.
While Biden could replace the relatively small amount of fuel he receives from Moscow, Europe could not, at least not in the short term.
Any curb on Russian oil exports will push already soaring oil and gasoline prices higher on both continents, putting even more pressure on consumers, businesses, markets and the global economy.
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Does Biden need Congress to act?
No. Three White House officials told NBC News that the president doesn't need Congress to ban Russian oil.
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But there is a bipartisan proposal underway to ban Russian energy imports.
That and close support among Democrats, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, may have added pressure to the White House in that direction.
What if the United States acts alone?
Without Europe's involvement, the impact on Russia will be minimal.
In 2021, only 8% of oil and oil product imports came from Russia, and it did not buy any natural gas.
The United States could substitute Russian crude for imports from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
And Russia could find alternative buyers, perhaps in China or India.
Such a move would "introduce massive inefficiency into the market," driving up prices, Claudio Galimberti, vice president of research at Rystad Energy, told The Associated Press.
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However, if Russia were excluded from the world market, Galimberti noted that rogue countries like Iran and Venezuela could be "welcomed back" as sources of oil.
These additional sources could, in turn, stabilize prices.
A team of officials from the Biden Administration traveled to Venezuela over the weekend to discuss energy and other issues.
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Will Europe do the same?
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz made it clear on Monday that his country, Europe's largest consumer of Russian energy, will not join the ban.
"Currently there is no other way to secure Europe's energy supply for heat generation, mobility and industry," he said.
A ban on Russian oil and natural gas would be painful for Europe.
Russia supplies about 40% of Europe's natural gas for home heating, electricity and industrial uses, and about a quarter of its oil.
European officials are looking for ways to reduce their dependency, but it's going to take time.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak underlined that urgency by stating that Russia would have “every right” to stop natural gas shipments to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline in retaliation for Germany’s halting of the parallel Nord Stream pipeline. Stream 2, which is not running yet.
Novak added that "we have not made this decision" and that "no one would benefit from it."
It was a change from earlier Russian assurances that they had no intention of cutting off gas to Europe.
Oil is easier to substitute than natural gas.
Replacing the natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe is probably impossible in the short term.
Most of the natural gas that Russia supplies to Europe travels through pipelines.
To replace it, Europe would have to import mostly liquefied natural gas, known as LNG.
The continent does not have enough pipelines to distribute gas from coastal import facilities to the farthest reaches of the continent.
Although US oil and gas producers could extract more natural gas, their export facilities are already operating at full capacity.
Expanding those facilities would take years and billions of dollars.
How will Russia be affected?
Given that the amount of oil the US imports from Russia is modest, the ban by itself is unlikely to inflict great economic pain on the Vladimir Putin regime, which could sell that oil elsewhere.
But you'd probably have to sell it at a deep discount, because fewer and fewer buyers are accepting it.
“By removing some of the demand, we are forcing the price of Russian oil down, and that reduces Russia's revenue,” said Kevin Book, managing director of Clearview Energy Partners.
How will prices be affected?
A month ago, oil was selling for around $90 a barrel.
Now, prices are rising above $120 a barrel as buyers shy away from Russian crude, and many refiners fear future sanctions.
They worry that they will be left with oil that they will not be able to resell as gasoline if sanctions are imposed in the near future.
Energy analysts warn that crude prices could rise to $160 or even $200 a barrel if the West imposes oil sanctions or if buyers continue to shy away from Russian crude.
For the first time since 2008, the average price of a gallon in the US has exceeded four dollars and could eventually exceed five dollars, a scenario that Biden is desperate to avoid.
After days of dramatically rising gas prices in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the national average gallon of gasoline is the highest in US history, breaking a record that has stood for nearly 14 years.
On Tuesday morning, the cost of regular gasoline was $4.17, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA, in English), compared to $4.06 on Monday, as reported by USA Today.
Last week, the median cost was $3.60.
These are the most expensive average costs of gasoline per gallon in the country, according to AAA:
California ($5.44)
Hawaii ($4.71)
Nevada ($4.67)
Oregon ($4.58)
Washington ($4.54)
Alaska ($4.50)
Illinois ($4.42)
New York ($4.36)