SpaceX sends Starlink internet terminals to Ukraine 0:47
(CNN) --
Like much else in the country, Russia's internet has long straddled East and West, and it could start to look more and more like China.
Russian citizens, unlike their Chinese counterparts, have been able to access American technology platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter and Google, although they have been subject to censorship and restrictions, which define China's internet model.
Russia refuses to launch internet satellites, blames sanctions for Ukraine invasion
But the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has increasingly isolated the country in recent days, could also be the death knell for its global web presence.
On Friday, as sanctions against Russia tightened and fighting in Ukraine intensified, the Russian government said it had decided to block Facebook, citing steps taken by the social network in recent days to impose restrictions on media outlets controlled by Russia.
Although Facebook is by no means the country's largest platform, the blocking may be a symbolic move to signal that President Vladimir Putin's government is willing to go after big global names if they don't bend to the government's line.
(Instagram and WhatsApp, more popular in Russia and also owned by Facebook parent company Meta, have not yet been blocked.)
The country's main telecoms agency, Rozkomnadzor, is already putting pressure on Google for what it calls "false" information, and has also reportedly clamped down on Twitter.
Other platforms are choosing to stop trading on their own.
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Elon Musk activates his Starlink service for Ukraine 1:02
Russia's isolation may not pose an existential threat to Western tech platforms, some of which have audiences of billions.
But these moves have important implications for the ability of Russians to access information and express themselves freely.
On a more fundamental level, it could also further accelerate the fracture of the internet as we know it.
A digital "iron curtain"
Many of Russia's recent restrictions on Western tech platforms stem from a "sovereign internet" law, enacted by Russia in 2019, which allows Roskomnadzor to more tightly control internet access in the country and potentially sever its links online. with the rest of the world entirely.
A law passed by Putin's government on Friday further intensifies hostility towards Western services, making it a crime to spread "false" information about the invasion of Ukraine, carrying a penalty of up to 15 years in prison, according to the Committee for the Protection of Journalists.
The law prompted several media outlets, including CNN, to suspend their coverage from Russia.
TikTok also cited the new legal environment in announcing its decision to bar new uploads and live streams on its platform in Russia.
Other technology companies reduced their presence in Russia during the Ukraine conflict.
Apple, Microsoft, and Intel have suspended all sales and restricted services in the country, while Google, Twitter, Netflix, Spotify, and Meta have blocked or restricted Russian state-run media, and in some cases completely suspended advertising in Russia. the country.
Cogent Communications, one of the world's largest providers of internet traffic, began cutting off access to its network to some Russian service providers on Friday.
Vladimir Putin's message to relatives of Russian soldiers 0:42
It's a perfect storm that could lead to Russia finally sealing off its population from the rest of the world's internet, as China has already done.
"The crisis is definitely a tipping point, and likely a turning point, for Western platforms operating in Russia," Jessica Brandt, Policy Director for the Artificial Intelligence and Emerging Technology Initiative at the Brookings Institution, told CNN.
Moscow will undoubtedly continue to pressure platforms to remove unflattering content, using all the leverage at its disposal.
If the companies comply, the public reaction around the world will be intense," he added.
The term used to refer to the respective censorship apparatuses of both countries is also similar: where China has its great firewall, Russia's has been dubbed the digital "iron curtain".
But while there are many similarities between the two, there are also some key differences that cast doubt on Russia's ability to maintain its own independent digital ecosystem.
Can the internet survive in Russia without Western technology?
While China has spent decades building its far-reaching censorship capabilities and has almost always blocked most Western tech platforms from operating in the country, Russia is trying to make that change while fighting a war.
Russia's ability to deploy the same level of technology as China is questionable, whether by making Western platforms completely inaccessible or even censoring specific content and topics in real time, as the Chinese government frequently does.
"I think one of the differences between Russia and China is that China has the technical capability, its great firewall is very sophisticated, and Russia doesn't have that much," said Xiaomeng Lu, director of the Eurasia Group's Geotechnology Practice.
"As much as [Russia] wants to do a comprehensive and complete lockdown, I think technically there are some challenges."
Unlike China, millions of people in Russia have become accustomed to accessing global technology platforms, and completely cutting off their access to those platforms is a step that the Russian government under Putin has so far refrained from taking.
But that is rapidly changing as the war and resulting Western sanctions continue to mount.
"I think if it is closed completely, there is a risk that the government will suffer some kind of political backlash," Lu said.
However, he adds, "that kind of fear is losing ground to fear of long-term regime survival."
Russia's dependence on foreign technology has been exposed as foreign companies sever ties in response to Western sanctions.
Texas-based Saber and its European counterpart Amadeus last week kicked Russia's biggest airline, Aeroflot, out of their global ticketing and reservation systems.
The country's central bank also announced that Apple Pay and Google Pay will no longer support cards from several Russian banks.
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Russia does have alternatives to global technology platforms, such as the Yandex search engine and the VK social network, which have tens of millions of users.
But Lu says it's not "as vibrant an ecosystem as China's," with several tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba and Weibo rivaling their Silicon Valley counterparts.
Russian platforms also face collateral damage of their own from the invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions.
Yandex warned last week that the stock market crash of sanctions could prevent it from paying its debts, and Vladimir Kiriyenko, the CEO of VK's parent company, is among those sanctioned by the US government.
On Monday, the Dutch investment firm Prosus announced that it would write off its investment in VK – valued at around US$700 million – and called for the resignation of its directors on the company's board of directors.
"The Russian people are the ones who will lose enormously"
While the Russian government seems more than willing to kick Western tech platforms out of its digital borders, the same cannot be said for the Russian people.
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"The Russian government gains from
Big Tech
leaving ," Brandt said.
"It is the Russian people who will lose enormously if they are deprived of access to non-governmental news and information and denied the means to organize."
There are already signs that the Russians are looking for ways to bypass internet blockades.
Five of the 10 most downloaded apps in the country last week were virtual private network (VPN) apps that allow users to create a more secure internet connection.
Downloads of the most popular VPN apps during that period collectively shot up more than 1,300%, according to app tracking platform Sensor Tower.
One way or another, the digital "iron curtain" seems to be falling.
Lu admits that it is difficult to predict exactly how quickly Russia's complete internet shutdown will occur, but recent developments indicate it could happen within "weeks or even days."
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