Ukraine war: is bread getting more expensive now?

Guild master speaks of "massive cut"

Created: 03/08/2022, 17:24

By: Patricia Huber

As a result of the Ukraine war, grain prices are also rising.

Do the Bavarian bakers pass this increase on to their customers?

© Martin Wagner/Imago Images

Energy prices in particular are rising as a result of the Ukraine war.

But wheat is also becoming increasingly expensive.

This applies particularly to bakers.

Are bread and other baked goods becoming more expensive now?

Munich – The Ukraine war* has far-reaching consequences.

Not only that, energy prices are rising immensely.

However, since Ukraine is also regarded as Europe's breadbasket, the war is now having an impact on grain prices in the EU.

Wheat in particular is grown there - but now the country is facing war and supplies are expected to collapse.

War in Ukraine: Wheat supply in the EU not at risk

According to figures from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Russia is responsible for ten percent and Ukraine for another four percent of global wheat production.

However, customers are primarily the countries in North Africa, Turkey and countries in Asia.

The EU and Germany therefore have a degree of self-sufficiency of 100 percent, which means that the supply in the EU is not at risk.

But wheat prices had recently reached record highs on the global market - and German bakers are also feeling the effects.

Heinrich Traublinger, foreman of the state guild association for the Bavarian bakery trade, also reports an “exorbitant” price increase for grain.

The high energy prices* make things even more difficult.

"The two together make a massive cut, which has a major impact on the calculation," he makes clear.

Whether this also increases consumer prices, "every colleague is responsible for that," says Traublinger.

Ukraine war: The price explosion also affects regional bakers

Even for regional bakers who, for example, only use grain from Bavaria, prices are likely to rise.

Because they too have been hit by the high energy prices.

This also includes the ever-increasing costs of petrol and diesel.

The head of the state guild makes it clear: "You can't just pin everything down to the price of wheat." The recipes of the individual products also play a role.

Not every type of wheat costs the same.

The higher the proportion of premium varieties, the more expensive the product ultimately becomes.

In any case, the association recommends that bakeries deal with price developments and take “the necessary steps”.

A price increase is therefore to be expected.

But is this increase permanent?

That depends on several factors, explains Traublinger.

“Here the market – supply and demand – determines the price.

You have to keep a very close eye on the market now.

However, if we have a bad harvest (eg depending on the weather), regardless of Ukraine, so that the premium varieties are scarce, then this can very well have an impact on the grain price.” In addition, we have not yet reached the end of the rise.

In the last six months alone, the grain price has doubled*.

The war in Ukraine is likely to exacerbate this significantly.