"As long as Western countries don't...": Is Germany
at risk of war with Putin's cyber army?
Created: 03/09/2022, 11:47 am
By: Wolfgang Hauskrecht
Given the Ukraine conflict, how real is the attack by Russian hackers on Germany?
© Jakub Porzycki/Imago
The Ukraine conflict is not only a war of arms, it is also being waged online.
Concerns about Russian state cyber attacks are growing in Germany.
Munich – The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution issued an urgent warning on Friday and, according to a
Spiegel
report, the Federal Office for Information Security (BSI) now has information that a cyber attack on “high value targets” in Germany could be imminent.
It could affect politicians, companies, private individuals, but also sensitive infrastructure such as the power supply.
The consequences could be massive.
Shortly after the start of the war in Ukraine, the “Ghostwriter” hacker group, controlled by the Russian secret service GRU, allegedly tried to gain access to German e-mail accounts with phishing e-mails.
The Office for the Protection of the Constitution warned that Putin's hackers could hijack news portals and journalists' social media accounts in order to spread misinformation about the war in Ukraine.
Misinformation is one thing.
Attacks on the infrastructure in Germany could have far more serious consequences.
Experts consider one of the worst scenarios to be a widespread power failure.
The insurance association GDV recently warned that such a failure would largely bring life to a standstill within 24 hours.
Germany, the association continues to criticize, is not prepared for such an attack.
Ukraine conflict: Russia with cyber attack?
Expert warns against intervention by the West
A power outage would affect far more than our evening lights.
“Our society depends on a secure and reliable power supply in almost every area.
A long-lasting and large-scale power failure would affect all critical infrastructures,” according to the
WDR
at the Federal Office for Civil Protection.
Information and telecommunications, water and sewage, food supply, health care, and the prevention of danger would be massively affected.
The Office for Technology Assessment of the Bundestag had already written a report in 2011 on the possible consequences of a national power blackout.
The report speaks of a "damage situation of special quality".
A prolonged power outage would be a national catastrophe.
However, Professor Wolfgang Hommel from the Cyber Defense and Smart Data research institute at the Bundeswehr University in Munich does not believe that such a scenario is imminent.
"I currently see the risk of attacks at state level as very low - as long as Western countries do not actively intervene in the conflict." For example, with the establishment of a no-fly zone over Ukraine.
"If Russia attacks Western countries at the state level, that would be an escalation of the conflict that would not serve Russia at the moment."
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Hommel believes it is possible that criminals from Russia will become active, for example to extort money.
A conflict between the hacker group "Anonymous" and Russian hackers is also conceivable.
But that is the non-governmental level.
"I cannot imagine that Russian military or state authorities are currently planning such attacks on western countries." So far, little has happened on the cyber level in the military actions in Ukraine either.
It is also rather questionable that the Kremlin has private accounts hacked in order to spread false information.
"Private individuals are relatively unattractive for government agencies because every attack and the use of data ties up resources again."
Another cyber security expert also appeals - it is important not to panic:
Cyber attacks due to the Ukraine crisis: how vulnerable is Germany?
Local defense seems holey
The question remains whether Germany would be prepared for major cyber attacks.
"Just because we have to ask ourselves this question, we don't feel sufficiently prepared," says Hommel.
All measures that have been taken so far are designed for peacetime.
Whether the defense would also hold up in the event of targeted state attacks, "there are simply no precedents that could be used as a guide".
At the moment, Germany's defense seems to be rather weak.
At federal agencies, every sixth position for IT security in the fight against cyber attacks is vacant.
According to a response from the federal government to a request from the left-wing faction, 600 specialists are currently missing for the 3,600 positions for IT security in the various federal ministries.
At the Federal Ministry of the Interior, to which the BSI belongs, even every fifth position is vacant.
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser (SPD) announced that the cyber defense would be expanded.
"We have to think more about countermeasures in the event of cyber attacks," said Faeser.
It is about “specific measures to identify perpetrators and criminal structures abroad, to uncover their cover-up measures, behind which they believe to be safe, and to prevent attacks from being carried out”.
The last federal government could not agree on how offensive the cyber defense measures should be.
In particular, it was disputed whether German authorities should be allowed to penetrate foreign servers in the event of an attack in order to switch them off.
The traffic light had ruled out such a “hackback” in the coalition agreement.
German arms deliveries for Ukraine?
Then the Office for the Protection of the Constitution sees an increased risk
In the shadow of the Ukraine conflict (chronology), the debate could flare up again.
The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warns that the sanctions and the German arms deliveries increase the risk of cyber attacks.
The Russian services had the ability to "substantially and permanently sabotage" critical infrastructure, but also military facilities and political operations, as the "Spiegel" quoted from an internal paper.
Bavaria's Digital Minister Judith Gerlach called for the 100 billion euros to be used to upgrade the Bundeswehr to also be used to improve cyber defense.
"We are constantly exposed to the dangers of cyberspace, even more so in armed conflicts." In the event of a hacker attack, Germany must be able to react not only passively but also actively.