The rains of recent days have not resolved the complicated situation in which water reserves are found in most of mainland Spain.
The reservoirs as a whole are at 43.9% and you have to go back to 1995 to find such a low reserve in the tenth week of the year, according to historical data from the Ministry for Ecological Transition.
In the last 34 years, reservations in this same week were only lower on three occasions: in 1995 (43.5%), 1993 (40.8%) and 1992 (40.4%).
After a very dry start to the hydrological year —which begins on October 1—, the first week of March has been rainy and an average of 17 liters per square meter have fallen in the country as a whole, explains Rubén del Campo, spokesman for Aemet ( Meteorology Statal Agency).
This means that "in the first six days of March it has rained 60% more than in the entire month of February," he adds.
In addition, rainfall has been widespread throughout the Peninsula.
But a handful of rainy days are not enough to correct the complicated autumn and winter that has been experienced and that lead some areas of the country to a difficult summer if there is not a drastic and wet change in the coming months.
Last month, for example, was the second driest February of this century, after the one recorded in 2020, and the third since the Aemet series began in 1961.
"The average rainfall over mainland Spain was 10.9 millimeters, 21% of the normal value for the month, which has given it a very dry character," explains the climate balance for February from this agency.
As for the reserves of the swamps, this meager 43.9% means that the water stored in the main peninsular basins is more than 20 percentage points below the average of the last decade, which for this week stands at 64.6%.
The worst areas are the Guadiana -which is at 30.4%, more than 33 points below the average for the last decade- and the Guadalquivir -whose reservoirs are only 28.5%, compared to 63.5% the average of the last decade.
The situation of the Guadalquivir is especially serious: since last October 1 the rains have been 47% less than the average of the last 25 years, according to data from the Guadalquivir Hydrographic Confederation (CHG).
And the south of the Peninsula was already dragging a situation of scarcity from the previous hydrological year.
This means that of the 21 territorial units of this basin, seven were in an emergency situation at the beginning of February and another 10 were on alert.
Four were in pre-alert and only two in a normal situation.
The CHG already officially declared in November the exceptional situation due to drought in most of the basin.
Now we are waiting for the Council of Ministers to approve the Royal Decree Law on measures to alleviate this situation, which will foreseeably include aid to those affected.
The last time a similar decree had to be approved in the Guadalquivir was in 2017.
El Pintado reservoir, in Cazalla de la Sierra (Seville), this Tuesday. PACO PUENTES (EL PAIS)
But some of the restriction measures that are being considered in the Guadalquivir as a forecast for the coming months are more reminiscent of the great drought of the 1990s, when the hours of access to water in the large capitals were even restricted. Andalusians.
More rains are coming
After such a dry February, March has started with rain.
There has been “an important change”, explains Del Campo.
"An episode of important rains is brewing in the Mediterranean for the end of the week."
But for the bad situation to be reversed, it would have to rain a lot more in the coming weeks and months.
Del Campo takes the situation of 2018 as a reference: after a very dry autumn and winter, reserves fell to levels similar to those of this year in January and February, when there were also no heavy rainfalls.
But the situation was saved thanks to a much rainier spring than normal.
"March 2018 was the rainiest of the entire series," explains the Aemet spokesperson.
Therefore, to reverse the current situation of scarcity, "a normal spring would not be enough" and the models predict that there is only a 20% chance that it will be "very rainy", recalls this expert.
Climate change and land uses
The IPCC, the panel of international experts that under the umbrella of the UN lays the foundations of knowledge on climate change, published its report on the impacts of global warming a week ago.
The last revision of this type was produced eight years ago.
In the section referring to Europe, it is highlighted that the Mediterranean has already warmed by 1.5 degrees, more than the average for the entire surface of the planet, which is 1.1 degrees.
More information
IPCC Report: Nearly Half of the World's Population Is "Highly Vulnerable" to Climate Change That Has Already Caused Widespread Damage
But among all the present and future impacts of the Mediterranean region, the IPCC report focuses on the reduction in the availability of fresh water.
"In southern Europe, more than a third of the population will be exposed to water scarcity if it reaches two degrees," says the report.
If three degrees are reached, the risk will double and "significant economic losses are expected in sectors dependent on water and energy."
For each degree of increase, a 4% reduction in rainfall is expected in the Mediterranean.
Julio Barea, from Greenpeace, adds two other factors to the decrease in rainfall associated with climate change that will increase the problems of water availability in Spain: the increase in evapotranspiration from the vegetation (loss of moisture through transpiration) also due to to global warming and increased demand.
Barea, regarding the last of these factors, criticizes that the state and regional plans are contemplating an increase in the area destined for irrigation, which consumes around 80% of the reservoirs of water in the country.
"We have to begin to consider a reduction in the irrigated area," says Barea, who warns of the "complicated summer" that is expected unless there is a drastic change that brings rains above normal in the coming months.
“The last rains are not even a drop of what we need to fill the glass again”, concludes Barea.
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