In some countries, the war in Ukraine and its consequences on wheat are viewed with concern.
The conflict threatens to jeopardize the supply of the States most dependent on imports of this essential cereal.
“
No more wheat comes out of Ukrainian ports.
And in Russia, the maritime flow coming out of the Black Sea is almost zero, in particular due to military tensions
”, depicts Sébastien Abis, director of Club DEMETER, a think tank specializing in agricultural issues.
Problem, Russia and Ukraine are respectively the first and the fifth world exporter of wheat, and between them represent about a third of the exports of the planet.
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French Agriculture and Food Minister Julien Denormandie sounded the alarm on Tuesday.
"
Around the Mediterranean, a lot of countries depend on Russian or Ukrainian wheat exports
," he said on CNews, adding that these states are also experiencing "
a terrible drought
".
The minister thus said he feared “
a world food crisis within 12 to 18 months
”.
Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco and even Algeria import a large quantity of wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
But North Africa is far from the only region in the world closely monitoring the situation east of Europe.
In sub-Saharan Africa, in South-East Asia, in the Middle East, as well as in the direct neighborhood of Russia and Ukraine (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Georgia, Latvia...), we also depend a lot on Russian wheat and Ukrainian.
Africa on the front line
“
The Ukraine had 6 million tonnes of wheat left to export between the end of February and the end of June, which will therefore have to be replaced
”, indicates Arthur Portier, an analyst at Agritel.
Not to mention probably a large part of the 8 million tons of Russian wheat that the country planned to export over this period.
"
We have reduced our wheat export forecast from the end of February to the end of June by 10 million tonnes for Ukraine and Russia
", indicates Hélène Duflot, cereal market analyst at the firm Tallage.
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The countries of North Africa are the most in difficulty, judge Arthur Portier, joining the opinion of Minister Julien Denormandie.
As the world's largest wheat importer, "
Egypt finds itself in trouble, because the country usually imports a million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat over the period February-June on average
", underlines the analyst.
Algeria is also in a delicate situation, it "
which had bought 1.5 million tonnes of wheat from the Black Sea, for delivery March-April
".
Other countries are in the running, notably France, to replace the Russian-Ukrainian basin.
Algiers has an ace up its sleeve, which Cairo does not have: the Maghreb country exports oil.
With the price of black gold reaching peaks (about 120 dollars per barrel), the receipts give it the financial capacity to buy wheat, also at historical records (about 400 euros per ton on the European market, after a peak at 450 euros on Monday).
“We are currently at unsustainable prices for all importing countries.
»
Sébastien Abis, director of Club DEMETER and associate researcher at IRIS
Some countries in sub-Saharan Africa must also be observed carefully, judge Hélène Duflot.
Because if, according to the analyst, the availability of other exporting countries (Europe, India, Australia, etc.) is sufficient to meet the import needs of North Africa, South-East Asia and the Middle East , "
on the other hand, we foresee a little destruction of demand for sub-Saharan Africa
".
In other words, there could be shortages of wheat in these countries, for example in Nigeria, Cameroon or Senegal, due to low global supplies and prices that are too high for these developing economies.
Towards new "hunger riots"?
More broadly, "
we are currently at unsustainable prices for all importing countries
," said Sébastien Abis, associate researcher at the Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS).
The disturbances created by the Russo-Ukrainian conflict are indeed affecting all importers, not just those dependent on Moscow and Kiev, through soaring prices on the financial markets.
“
There are serious concerns in Egypt, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Thailand
,” he lists, quoting some of the world's largest wheat importers.
Turkey, the Philippines, Brazil and Japan are also at the top of the ranking of importers.
This situation revives the specter of "hunger riots", these demonstrations which broke out in 2008 in several countries, mostly African (Morocco, Egypt, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Burkina Faso, Philippines, Indonesia, Haiti... ), in response to soaring grain prices.
In some states, for example Morocco or Egypt, they then created the breeding ground for the “Arab springs” from 2010. Today, “
there is a risk of social unrest in wheat importing countries
”, considers Arthur Portier, of Agritel.
Sébastien Abis nuance: according to the expert, the food factor alone cannot trigger demonstrations, even if it is “
central
”.
They can imagine themselves in countries which, in addition, "
are not in great shape politically and economically, and where, for example, freedoms have not progressed in recent years
," he says.
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In the longer term, the outlook is uncertain.
What if the Russian-Ukrainian conflict were to get bogged down, disrupting the exports of the two countries over time?
"
We can't do without Russia and Ukraine forever
," says Arthur Portier, highlighting the low level of global stocks.
The next harvest in Ukraine still needs to take place.
“
If Ukraine is unable to harvest due to a lack of seedlings, who will take over?
asks Sébastien Abis.
The European Union, replies Julien Denormandie.
“
Europe must produce more
”, called the French Minister of Agriculture on Tuesday, because it must “
assume its nourishing mission
”.