Ukraine war: can Germany do without Russian oil and gas?
What experts say
Created: 03/10/2022 16:03
By: Lisa Mayerhofer
Germany imports large quantities of oil and gas from Russia.
Is an energy embargo even possible as a sanction for our country?
(Iconic image) © Julian Stratenschulte/dpa
Germany imports large quantities of oil and gas from Russia.
But the discussion about a possible embargo for coal, oil and gas from Russia is ongoing.
What consequences would that have, what experts expect.
Berlin – Oil and gas prices have been at a record high since the outbreak of the Ukraine war*.
At the same time, there are growing calls for an energy embargo on Russia and a freeze on oil and natural gas supplies.
The problem: Germany is also cutting itself into its own flesh.
In 2021, Germany received more than a third of its oil imports from Russia, and for gas it was even more than half of its deliveries.
In the entire EU, the share is around 40 percent for natural gas and almost 30 percent for oil.
Oil and natural gas: Habeck warns of sanctions against Russia
The German government is therefore also blocking an import ban on Russian oil and gas, which the USA and Great Britain, for example, had already imposed on Tuesday.
"We can only adopt measures that I know will not lead to serious economic damage in Germany and that would be the case if we stopped letting oil, coal and gas into this country immediately," explained the Federal Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck (Greens) on Wednesday evening on ZDF "heute journal".
Habeck warned of the dramatic economic effects that Germany would then have to expect: “This is about averting economic damage that would then bind us for years and also paralyze us politically.
A five percent economic slump - if that were the case - is more than the Covid pandemic."
However, according to a survey, the majority of Germans are in favor of stopping* oil and gas imports from Russia because of the Ukraine war.
In a survey conducted by the YouGov opinion research institute on behalf of the
Handelsblatt
, 54 percent stated that they were in favor of an embargo.
Energy embargo against Russia: Alternatives for oil, but not for natural gas
But how do experts assess the situation - is an energy embargo even possible?
According to the energy expert Claudia Kemfert from the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), a delivery stop would be conceivable, at least for coal and crude oil - there are alternatives here.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) points to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and the growing US oil shale sector.
also read
When is Germany's first liquefied natural gas terminal coming?
The Ukraine crisis drastically shows the geopolitical explosive power of natural gas.
High dependency on one source is dangerous.
LNG could contribute to diversification.
When is Germany's first liquefied natural gas terminal coming?
Habeck's Contingency Plan to Reduce Energy Dependence
Climate Protection Minister Habeck wants to fundamentally change German energy policy.
The goal is energy sovereignty.
It is a long way.
Habeck's Contingency Plan to Reduce Energy Dependence
The situation with natural gas is more problematic, explains Kemfert.
The dependency of Germany in particular is particularly great here, and there are only a few alternatives.
More natural gas could come via pipelines from Norway and Azerbaijan, but additional capacity is limited.
Another alternative is liquefied natural gas, known by the abbreviation LNG.
According to figures from the energy company BP, Europe imported almost 115 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2020.
Deliveries came mostly from Qatar and the USA.
17.1 billion cubic meters also came from Russia.
However, Germany faces a problem: Special terminals for ship handling are required to accept LNG deliveries and process the gas - and they do not exist in Germany, so direct import is not possible.
So far, the LNG in Germany has been obtained from terminals in Zeebrugge, Belgium, Dunkirk, France, and from the Netherlands.
After all, the government wants to change that: Because of the Ukraine war, Chancellor Scholz recently announced the accelerated construction of two LNG terminals in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven.
Leopoldina: short-term delivery stop in the Ukraine war "manageable"
The National Academy of Sciences Leopoldina, on the other hand, assumes that a short-term stop in the supply of Russian gas* would be “manageable” for the German economy.
To this end, the researchers published an ad hoc statement on Tuesday in Berlin on the rapid and long-term substitutability of natural gas from Russia.
In the short term, the scientists recommend importing liquefied gas, saving on natural gas and filling gas storage tanks as a buffer for the winter.
"In order to reduce the demand for natural gas, one could also rely on more coal-fired power generation," says the statement.
If necessary, additional costs would have to be cushioned for citizens and companies, for example by reducing energy taxes.
"In the medium term - within a year - Germany needs a robust reserve of energy sources, an expansion of liquid gas capacities and an upgrade of the gas network," it continues.
In the long term, i.e. within two to ten years, the expansion of the infrastructure for handling and importing hydrogen is recommended, as is the greater expansion of renewable energies.
Renewable energies instead of fossil energies
In addition, the Leopoldina considers stronger state regulation of the energy market to be necessary.
The options ranged “from a completely state energy supply to a purely private energy supply under state regulation and supervision”.
However, politicians and society should not question the planned phase-out of coal in 2030.
"It helps to become independent of Russian coal imports, which account for 50 percent of coal imports to Germany," emphasized the researchers.
In the discussion about dependence on energy imports from Russia, Habeck also emphasized the need to expand renewable energies: "As far as the overall phase-out of fossil energies is concerned, this crisis is certainly another reminder, an accelerator," affirmed Habeck.
“Before that, we discussed this transformation, this necessity from the point of view of climate protection.
Now we are finally discussing them from a security policy point of view.*”
With material from dpa and AFP
*Merkur.de is an offer from IPPEN.MEDIA
