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Malnourished child in Yemen 2020 (being fed by the mother): "The conflict is forcing people to forego meals"
Photo: Mohammed Mohammed/ picture alliance/ dpa
On Wednesday, DER SPIEGEL reported on criticism from Western diplomatic circles about the striking silence of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) on the consequences of the Ukraine war for global food security.
Now the FAO has reacted: On Friday afternoon, the organization published a study on the subject on its website.
She warns that the failure of Russia and Ukraine to supply grain and fertilizer could push international food prices by eight to 22 percent above current, "already high, levels."
For fertilizers, the FAO predicts price increases of 25 percent "above the level planned for 2026/27".
According to the FAO, Ukraine and Russia are "among the world's most important producers of agricultural raw materials".
They played "leading roles in supplying global markets for food and fertilizer."
The export of these products is concentrated "in a handful of countries".
This concentration means that these markets are particularly exposed to “shocks and volatility”.
If crude oil prices remain high because of the conflict, and Ukraine and Russia fail as exporters beyond 2022/23, international prices would remain at "severely elevated levels".
Other producing countries could not fill this gap, even if they should increase their output.
The FAO writes that the "least developed" countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia, which were already suffering from high world prices for food and fertilizers before the conflict, are particularly affected.
In both industrialized and developing countries, poorer sections of the population in particular would suffer from food inflation, "including pensioners."
These groups may be forced to cut other "essential expenses" such as "education, energy, heating, or groceries" or "skip meals or seek less nutritious alternatives."
The number of malnourished people worldwide would increase by 7.6 million if the consequences of the Ukraine war remained "moderate".
According to the FAO, should the conflict drag on, up to 11
In an opinion piece published at the same time as the document, Chinese FAO Secretary-General Qu Dongyu called for keeping "global trade in food and fertilizers open" and looking for alternative suppliers.
Particularly vulnerable groups such as "internally displaced persons" should be given special help.
"All over the world" would be driven "many more people into poverty and hunger" because of the conflict.
"We must set up well-targeted social protection programs for them in good time."
Qu also calls for more "transparency" and "dialogue" on the international market for agricultural products.
He is apparently aiming at one of the main points of criticism from western diplomats and experts: They had criticized that the FAO withheld important data on the consequences of the Ukraine war in order to avoid panic buying on the global grain market.
At the same time, China would buy hamsters around the world.
The government in Beijing, so the accusation, is using the FAO for its national interests.
Experts complain that Beijing does not provide any reliable figures on how much wheat and soy it hoards.
It is not the first time that Western diplomats and specialists have accused an international organization of bowing to Chinese influence.
During the pandemic, the same allegation was made against the World Health Organization (WHO).
The conflict in the FAO is also unlikely to have been resolved with the publication of the document on the Ukraine war: since the invasion of Ukraine, the West has been following Beijing's international movements even more closely than before.