What an import ban on Russian energy would mean
Created: 03/11/2022 15:29
There is a heated debate in Germany about importing energy from Russia.
© Patrick Pleul/dpa-Zentralbild/dpa
The West punishes Russia with sanctions - and continues to buy energy there.
Berlin warns of an import stop.
Consumers would have to fear further price increases, but probably not a supply gap.
Berlin - Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) has warned of an import ban on Russian energy.
If all energy imports were stopped overnight, "that would mean that we would no longer have electricity or heat in a few weeks," says the Green politician.
"How many days would we be able to maintain that people can no longer drive to work, that we no longer have electricity in kindergartens, that we can no longer really keep hospitals running?" The scenario that Baerbock warns about is, however highly unlikely.
Could there be a ban on imports of Russian energy?
That could happen sooner or later.
Either because Russia is stopping exports to Germany and the European Union - or because the EU states want to punish the Russian leadership around President Vladimir Putin in their campaign against Ukraine.
However, the federal government is still resisting a European energy embargo because Germany is particularly dependent on Russian energy.
How much energy does Germany get from Russia?
According to the Ministry of Economic Affairs, the share of Russian imports in fossil gas imports to Germany is around 55 percent, coal around 50 percent and crude oil imports around 35 percent.
According to the Federal Ministry of Economics on Friday, the German gas storage facilities are about a quarter full.
Although this status is “not good”, it is not “worrying” either.
The security of supply is guaranteed.
"We'll get through this winter," promises Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens), who was a guest in Kiel on Friday.
Could there be delivery bottlenecks?
That is extremely unlikely.
On the one hand, Habeck makes it clear again and again that the energy supply is secured for the last cold weeks of this winter.
Rather, he is worried about the coming winter.
Should there actually be bottlenecks, the gas emergency plan would kick in.
Gas is particularly important for heat supply.
According to the plan, “particularly protected customers” are private consumers and particularly important infrastructure, which also includes the healthcare system and educational institutions – i.e. the hospitals and kindergartens that Baerbock is talking about.
In order to secure their supply, the supply of the industry would have to step back.
Habeck warns that this would hit the German economy hard.
And what about electricity?
Unlike in the heating sector, this problem does not exist at all because Germany is not dependent on Russian imports.
The Federal Republic even exports electricity.
What is the federal government doing about addiction?
The federal government used state funds and political talks to ensure that the gas storage facilities, which were at a low level, did not run completely empty, says Economics Minister Habeck.
"The coal reserves at the power plants will also last into the summer." The companies also concluded new supply contracts.
"Every day that passes makes us a little less dependent on Russian imports of oil and coal, and we are also in the process of supporting the gas supply contracts so that we can get more gas in via LNG." Germany is planning its own terminals for LNG ( LPG) in Brunsbüttel and Wilhelmshaven.
In the long run, the government wants to massively push ahead with the expansion of renewable energies - but that won't help next winter.
What about the prices?
They are already rising and should continue to do so.
If gas imports from Russia were to be stopped, for example, gas prices would continue to rise, said energy expert Malte Küper from the German Economic Institute (IW) of the German Press Agency.
"That would mean that many companies would have to shut down their production for economic reasons."
A spokesman for the Federal Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW) said: "Despite the fact that households and social institutions are among the particularly protected customers, an embargo on energy supplies from Russia would have massive negative effects, for example on energy prices for consumers. The energy industry is working flat out to substitute amounts of energy from Russia in the short term and to become independent of fossil raw materials and thus also of Russian imports in the medium to long term.
more on the subject
Habeck on the energy supply: supplies are there
Habeck's Contingency Plan to Reduce Energy Dependence
Warnings of rising gas prices due to Ukraine crisis
To counteract this, the federal government has already decided on initial relief for citizens, and more are likely to follow.
"Of course we have to prevent people from falling into poverty, from companies tipping over, from people no longer being able to pay their energy bills," says Habeck, who promised "specific relief".
The government will look at the development and then decide on it.
dpa