The epidemic situation in Hong Kong is severe, and the daily number of confirmed cases is temporarily around 30,000. Guo Jianan, assistant professor of the Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, CUHK said today (14th) on the RTHK program "Millennium" that according to Mathematical models predict that the epidemic has just peaked, and the current situation will run rampant for two to three weeks. It is estimated that 4.5 million to 5 million people will be infected in Hong Kong, and 7,000 to 9,000 patients will die. It is expected to drop to about 1,000 from the end of May to the beginning of June Zong, it is difficult to achieve zero.
He believes that the number of people who have recovered and been vaccinated after the infection has increased, and the perception of the epidemic has declined, which may cause the market to increase in people, and the epidemic will rebound at any time. At this stage, it is not appropriate to relax social distancing measures.
Zeng Qiyin, co-chairman of the Infectious Disease Advisory Committee of the Medical Association, who was interviewed on the same program, believed that some citizens did not report the infection after being infected, and believed that the number of confirmed cases announced by the authorities did not reflect the actual infection situation.
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Kwok Kin On (left), Assistant Professor, Jockey Club School of Public Health and Primary Care, Faculty of Medicine, CUHK.
(File photo / Photo by Lu Yiming)
Guo Jianan continued that, based on the mathematical model, it is estimated that 4.5 million to 5 million people will be infected in Hong Kong, and 7,000 to 9,000 patients will die. Thousands; to fall further to 100, it will have to wait until the end of June to the beginning of July.
As for clearing it, it is more difficult. "(The epidemic) has a chance when there are hundreds of controllable situations."
He also mentioned that the indicators of life and behavior of Hong Kong citizens in the past 14 days have almost reached a historical low, but he is worried that Hong Kong people have become accustomed to more than 10,000 confirmed cases every day, and as more and more people recover from the epidemic, and get vaccinated The increase in the vaccine population, coupled with anti-epidemic fatigue, the public may be less aware of the epidemic, and the flow of people in the market or the increase in human contact may cause the epidemic to rebound at any time. Therefore, it is not recommended to relax social distancing measures at this stage, and it should be taken advantage of this time. Give the unvaccinated person the injection as soon as possible.
When can we relax a little bit?
He believes that the confirmed cases must fall below 5 digits at least before fine-tuning can be considered. For example, the table limit in restaurants is increased from two to four, but the ban on dine-in in the evening market is maintained.
Nor should cross-family gatherings continue as multiple family members are involved.
Zeng Qiyin, co-chairman of the Advisory Committee on Infectious Diseases of the Medical Association, said on the same program that it is expected that the number of confirmed cases announced by the authorities does not reflect the actual infection situation. The bureau needs to be aware of the relevant situation and try to formulate policies.
He also described that the number of infected people in Hong Kong is so large that "basically, there is one close by." He quoted a Hong Kong scholar who estimated that more than 100,000 people may actually be infected every day, and called on the public to pay attention to hygiene.
▼On March 13, the enclosure inspection of Block 3 of Tsui Ning Garden, Tuen Mun▼
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▼On March 13, the enclosure inspection of Ai Xin Building and Ai Lai Building in You Oi Village, Tuen Mun▼
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