Inflation: an uncertain but massive effect on public finances

At the end of 2021, the Bercy teams had worked hard to skillfully distribute between the 2021 and 2022 budgets the expenses incurred in order to mitigate the cost for the French of the explosion in energy prices.

The objective was then to prevent the public deficit from exceeding 5% of GDP in this presidential election year.

And this after reaching 9.2% in 2020, in the midst of a crisis, and 7% last year, a year of recovery.

But since the adoption of the 2022 budget in December, war in Ukraine has broken out, causing inflation to soar.

And nothing is certain anymore… For some economists, the public deficit will undoubtedly be higher than 5%, even if

explains the economic adviser of Natixis, Patrick Artus, who is counting at this stage on a hole of nearly 6% of GDP.

Others urge caution.

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