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Latin America will suffer the consequences of the war, and indecision does not help (opinion)

2022-03-15T17:06:48.895Z


As in the rest of the world, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced the countries of Latin America to define themselves in the face of an event that is impossible to ignore. Many would have preferred not to take sides in a conflict that seems foreign to them at first sight, and that has not initially affected the region as much as other areas. It was not possible.


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Editor's note:

Jorge G. Castañeda is a CNN contributor.

He was Secretary of Foreign Affairs of Mexico from 2000 to 2003. He is currently a professor at New York University and his most recent book, “America Through Foreign Eyes”, was published by Oxford UniversityPress in 2020. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely from the author.

You can find more opinion pieces at CNNe.com/opinion.

(CNN Spanish) --

As in the rest of the world, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has forced the countries of Latin America to define themselves in the face of an event that is impossible to ignore.

Many would have preferred not to take sides in a conflict that seems foreign to them at first sight, and that has not initially affected the region as much as other areas.

It was not possible.


The definition has been imposed through various mechanisms, of uneven importance.

In the first place, the Latin American governments have spoken with communiqués from their foreign ministries or with presidential declarations.

Secondly, their representatives have been forced to vote, either in the UN Security Council (in the case of Mexico and Brazil), either in the United Nations General Assembly, or in the Organization of the American States (OAS).

Third, countries have been defined by adopting (or not) sanctions against Russia, following the United States, the European Union, Japan, Canada and Australia, among others.

What is strange, but ultimately not so surprising, is that the positions assumed by each country in the three categories were not always and all the same.

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The presidents of Mexico and Brazil have tended to seek refuge in neutrality with declarations or silences, but their votes in the Security Council, where both are non-permanent members this year, were resounding.

They clearly declared themselves in favor of the draft resolution that condemned the Russian invasion.

They proceeded in the same way in the vote of the General Assembly, approved by 141 countries.

However, Brazil abstained in the OAS invasion vote, and has refused to impose sanctions on Russia, arguing that the fertilizer it imports from that country is indispensable and irreplaceable.

It is worth remembering that President Jair Bolsonaro visited his counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow a few days before the Russian invasion.

Mexico did approve the OAS resolution.

Cuba, Nicaragua, El Salvador and Bolivia abstained on the resolutions of the UN Assembly or the OAS, although the situation is not identical for all.

Venezuela (that is, the government of Nicolás Maduro, not recognized by much of the international community, but with full control of the territory) could not vote at the UN due to lack of payment and is represented at the OAS by Juan Guaidó's team .

Cuba is not a member of the OAS.

They constitute the group of countries that, although they disapprove of the use of force by Russia, prefer not to join the clear and firm condemnation of the sponsors of the aforementioned resolutions.

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Argentina is another curious case.

President Alberto Fernández traveled to Moscow in February and declared that his country could be Russia's “gateway” to Latin America.

He voted in favor of the UN resolution, but abstained in the OAS, without clarifying precisely why there were two positions from the same country on the same issue.

As for sanctions, in addition to the aforementioned case of Brazil, no country in the region has dared to impose them.

Some may not have done so out of sympathy for Russia, others on the pretext of non-existent historical precedents, but all have been forced to accept the consequences of the sanctions ordered by the United States and other nations.

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In particular, they can no longer use the SWIFT system for transfers between their banks and the affected Russian banks, and the Central Bank of Russia's asset freeze also applies to possible deposits in Latin American banks.

I think it is feasible that in the coming days or weeks, Washington and Brussels will make greater efforts in Latin America so that some countries join the sanctions, even if they were purely symbolic.

For now, as Andrés Oppenheimer rightly says, no Latin American nation appears on the list of countries least loved by Putin.

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Now, this regional ambivalence has consequences.

The first is that the dispersion of positions within each country inevitably entails a division between countries.

And that division implies weakness or impotence to act in the international arena.

In any case, Latin America could hardly play a leading role in a conflict that is remote and in which its vital interests are not at stake.

But a united and consistent Latin American voice, if it existed, could support reprisals and mediation efforts by others.

It does not exist, and everything suggests that it will not exist.

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Immediately, it is clear that in the margins where the region could act in a significant way –for example, with regard to oil and grain prices– the impossible coordination makes things difficult.

Whatever the origin of the attempted rapprochement between the US and Venezuela in recent days, it seems difficult for a possible agreement between the two adversaries to prosper without the contribution of other actors: Cuba, without a doubt, but also Mexico and Brazil.

However, it may be difficult for Washington at this point to trust these countries, and Nicolás Maduro does not trust Brazil either, at least.

So the idea of ​​lifting sanctions on Venezuelan crude in exchange for far-reaching US concessions seems a bit far-fetched;

Like the rest of the world, Latin America will suffer the consequences of the war in Eastern Europe.

For oil-importing countries like Chile, or grain-importing countries like Mexico, the economic impact will be serious.

For those who have difficulties in attracting capital, the flight to quality in the markets will be highly damaging.

And for all, marginalization or irrelevance in international relations will carry intangible but undeniable implications.

Latin American indecision and division do not help.

War in UkraineNews from Russia

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2022-03-15

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