The destruction of the Iranian drones at their mother base in Iran last month attributed to Israel was an impressive success for Israel, according to estimates.
Unlike in the past, this attack was kept secret for about a month, until it was exposed yesterday in the Haaretz newspaper (following a hint published earlier this week in the Lebanese media).
The Iranians may not have been comfortable admitting that they infiltrated and were hit again, and they may have sought to hide the extent of the damage at the Karmansha site - several hundred drones of various types destroyed on the ground - or they first sought to respond, as they did earlier this week when launching drones at A facility in Kurdistan, claiming to belong to an institution.
Iranian drones at a base in the south of the country, Photo: Gettyimages
One way or another, this sequence of events shows, once again, that the war between Israel and Iran is becoming more violent and overt than in the past.
Although Israel maintains secrecy (in carrying out and taking responsibility) when operating on Iranian soil, it seems willing to take greater risks than in the past to disrupt the Iranians' operational capability and try to deter them.
This is an informed policy, which is expected to intensify after the nuclear agreement is re-signed.
Under the agreement, Israel will be prevented from taking action against uranium enrichment facilities, but it will be free to take action against anything else that endangers it: the Iranian missile and rocket array, the unmanned aerial vehicle system, the Quds Force terrorist activities and of course any other unrelated nuclear project. Enrichment.
Interception of an Iranian UAV in February 2018 (archive) // Photo: IDF Spokesman
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All of this will oblige the Mossad to continue to maintain high operational capability in Iran, as it has done in a series of operations attributed to it in recent years, from the theft of the nuclear archive, through the damage to the enrichment site at Natanz and the centrifuge plant, to the elimination of nuclear projector Muhsin Fahrizadeh.
It is likely that in the future the Iranians will increase the security measures around their site and the various activities, which will require Israel to be more creative and daring - including the risk of a more blatant Iranian response than in the past.
The escalation requires finding a solution to the challenge posed by Hezbollah, Photo: Ai.
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The Iranians, it seems, are already deep in this field.
Their attack on Kurdistan was not the first of its kind, but their overt responsibility was defiant, and was intended to deter not only Israel but also the Kurds.
It is possible that the Iranians want to establish their own military base: just as in the attacks of the Syrian air force, Israel is careful to impose the responsibility not only on the Iranians but also on the host country, Syria, so the Iranians want to signal to the Kurds that their cooperation with Israel could exact heavy prices. More in the future.It will also be interesting to see if Iran confines this message to Kurdistan alone, or whether it will extend it to other countries that are cooperating with Israel, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain.
A solution against Hezbollah - even at the cost of a confrontation
This escalating war forces Israel to think in other sectors as well.
Although the Lebanese sector is quiet, the challenge posed by Hezbollah to the IDF in general and to the Air Force in particular is growing significantly. Very partial, disrupting Israeli activity in the skies of Lebanon, and fortifying its status as its defender - an issue for which Israel must find an operational solution, even at the cost of a point-by-point confrontation, before it is established and projected on further activities in the region.
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