Andrés Manuel López Obrador resists the erosion of power.
The president of Mexico maintains a high citizen approval with just over three weeks to go before the consultation on the revocation of the mandate called for April 10.
A survey by SIMO Consulting conducted for EL PAÍS between March 8 and 12 shows that the president's popularity continues to hover around 60%.
30% of those surveyed "very much approve" of his work at the head of the Government and 29% "somewhat approve" of it.
Only 22% openly contest his management.
A very large majority, 74%, also agrees that López Obrador exhaust his mandate and rejects that he leave office before the 2024 elections.
The study shows an erosion in the evaluation of the president with respect to his best average, the 68% that he retained in July 2021. However, the most recent data is framed in a particularly turbulent political context: at a start to the year marked by the security crisis and inflation were added at the end of January to the questioning of the president's eldest son, José Ramón López Beltrán, for the house he occupied on the outskirts of Houston, Texas.
The accusations did not prove legal responsibility, but the case monopolized the public conversation for weeks and deepened the confrontation with his opponents.
However, none of these fronts irreversibly weakened López Obrador.
His predecessor, Enrique Peña Nieto, was facing enormous wear and tear at this point in his mandate,
The survey confirms a common phenomenon since 2018: the figure of the president is much more solid and valued, according to the imaginary of Mexicans, than some of the measures that he himself promotes.
The balance of the advances and setbacks of the first federal government of Morena corroborates this.
The most applauded by citizens are the government's social policies.
"Support for the poorest" represents for 75% an improvement compared to the previous administrations of the PRI and the PAN.
61% also welcome the promotion of large public works, 52% consider the fight against corruption, one of the axes of the so-called Fourth Transformation, another progress, and 51% value job creation after two years very difficult due to the collapse of the economy accelerated by the coronavirus pandemic.
At the same time, the Executive suspends in terms of security, in the fight against drug cartels that sow terror in states such as Michoacán, Morelos, Zacatecas and Tamaulipas, or in the strategy to deal with violence against journalists.
Eight reporters have been assassinated so far this year, the last one last Tuesday, and the president has not given up polarizing with some especially critical communicators and launching attacks against the press.
Despite everything, 71% believe that in Mexico there is freedom of expression.
Voters also see the initiatives of this Administration to eliminate violence against women as insufficient.
Since the beginning of January, five women have been reported missing each day in Mexico, according to the National Registry of Missing Persons.
“The population perceives all issues related to insecurity and violence (women, journalists, drug trafficking) as the greatest setback in this government.
However, the president has been very clever in avoiding the negative assessment of this issue so that it does not affect the approval of his mandate.
It gives the impression that the population no longer expects the insecurity situation to change radically, that is, a normalization, or at least they do not place this responsibility on the president,” says Santiago Rodríguez, director of strategic studies at SIMO Consulting.
In his opinion, "another way of seeing the complacency of citizens with the weak flanks of the president is that they are greatly compensated with what they consider to be his strengths, mainly support for the poorest."
“Despite the fact that social policy experts criticize the implicit clientelism that exists in distributing money to, for example, improve public services, the truth is that many people have more cash in hand thanks to the Government and that has a very important weight. relevant to preferences.
It does not seem to matter much that this money will have to be invested in private services.
This is the case of the cancellation of full-time schools that allows many women to work while their children study,” Rodríguez continues.
With these premises, López Obrador faces the recall referendum on April 10, one of his personal bets, with few concerns.
The only unknown has to do with participation, since the precedent of the popular consultation that opened the door to prosecute the former political leaders -held last summer- did not reach a quorum.
Barely 7% of Mexicans went to vote, although the complexity of the question and the doubts it generated make that quote quite far from a vote on the revocation of the mandate.
To begin with, practically all those surveyed, 92%, are now aware of the referendum.
Despite the boycott that the majority of the opposition is attempting, Morena has more options on this occasion to mobilize its base, which less than a year ago gave López Obrador another victory in the federal elections, although less resounding than in 2018. 74% agree that the president exhaust his mandate and leave power as appropriate at the end of the six-year term, in 2024. 24% instead want his mandate revoked, although it remains to be seen whether these voters decide to go to vote.
war in ukraine
The SIMO Consulting survey also asks about the most pressing issue in the world today, the invasion of the Kremlin in Ukraine.
For the great majority of the participants, 79%, the position of the Government of Andrés Manuel López Obrador before the war "has been the correct one".
Mexico unequivocally rejected and condemned Vladimir Putin's invasion, although it has declined to become more involved by providing, for example, military support to Ukraine.
The president did offer, instead, "protection and humanitarian aid to all."
A large majority of Mexicans also have a negative opinion of Russia.
For 18% this perception is "very bad" and for 48% it is "bad".
Only 2% have a "very good" image of Putin's country.
TECHNICAL SHEET OF THE SURVEY
Representativeness:
National.
Target Population:
Men and women of legal age (18 years or older).
Sampling methodology
: 800 effective cases.
Data collection method:
Telephone interviews.
Estimation error:
±3.46% (95% confidence).
Lifting date:
from March 8 to 12.
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