"Putin is serious": Sweden hesitates to join NATO - Finland could break historical connection

Created: 2022-03-20 04:53

By: Florian Naumann

Threats from the Kremlin are worrying Finland and Sweden.

NATO would open the "fast track" for the Scandinavians - but it is a historic decision.

Stockholm/Helsinki - A good three weeks after the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine, there is still no prospect of a negotiated peace.

For this reason, Germany's Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced the end of German "neutrality" on Friday.

Two EU partners have a harder time with this commitment - also because for them neutrality is a much stronger political reality: Sweden and Finland are considering joining NATO, the outcome is open.

The defensive alliance itself has now opened the door wide.

But especially in Sweden, the concerns are great.

It is possible that Finland will leave its long-standing, closest partner behind.

Ukraine war: Sweden quarrels - Conservatives dash towards NATO, parliament divided

"We know that Sweden and Finland meet the NATO membership requirements," said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on Thursday (March 17).

Accession could happen "quickly", on the "fast track", he explained - without wanting to name any specific timeframes.

The prerequisite, however, is that the federal states submit applications for admission, he added.

But exactly this point is still unclear.

In Finnland.

And especially in Sweden.

The moderators, the largest conservative party in the Swedish Riksdag, took up Stoltenberg's clear invitation on Thursday evening.

“Sweden counts on the help of others when it has to defend itself.

But only if we are in NATO are we guaranteed of that," the party tweeted.

Nonetheless, the affairs of state are run by the Social Democrats - in a minority government tolerated by three parties.

This alliance currently sees the situation largely differently.

In a vote on Wednesday, the Social Democrats themselves, but also the left and the Greens, voted against joining NATO - the conservative-Green Center Party was the only one of the tolerant parties who spoke out in favor of the step.

Sweden and Putin's threat: new survey shows growing desire for NATO - social democrats put the brakes on it

In general, the bourgeois camp in Sweden is far more supportive of the alliance.

Left of center there are bigger concerns.

For historical reasons - but also out of concern that accession could provoke a Russian attack or at least further aggravate the situation in the Ukraine conflict, as recently stressed Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who had experienced conflict early on.

A strong pacifist tradition in Sweden, which has long been social-democratic, also plays a role.

A meeting between the Swedish parliamentary parties on the security situation followed on Thursday.

Of course, the topic of joining NATO was also considered, said Defense Minister Peter Hultqvist afterwards.

Foreign Minister Ann Linde also hastened to make it clear that the aim of the security policy analysis was not to work out a clear route to take in the NATO matter.

Either way: A final paper should be available by May 31st.

Recent surveys also show a change in mood among the population.

According to a representative survey by the Swedish institute Novus, the pro- and contra-NATO camps were almost equal at the beginning of the year.

In the week of March 10-16, 47 percent of those polled said they were in favor and 30 percent were against - although the proportion in favor at the beginning of the month was slightly higher at 49 percent.

Interestingly, the pollsters pointed out that only part of the survey had been conducted on the latest developments in Finland.

The subtext: Sweden keeps a close eye on its neighboring country.

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In Finland, the pendulum is swinging even more clearly in the direction of joining NATO.

Only a few weeks ago, a survey commissioned by the public broadcaster YLE determined a majority for the step for the first time.

On Monday, a new survey of 1,400 respondents even showed an approval of 62 percent.

Should Sweden go along, even 77 percent of Finns would be in favor of joining NATO.

Now things could go quite quickly: According to the website

, the parliament should have an expert opinion on the issue in three weeks.

President Sauli Niinistö has already announced that Eduskunta should discuss and decide "as soon as possible".

A break with tradition is also under discussion - accession without close partner Sweden.

However, according to YLE, Niinistö was also thinking aloud about holding a referendum.

The journalist Markus Ekholm commented for the broadcaster that the decision was difficult.

At the same time, however, it is clear among experts that NATO is superior to Russia in a conventional war.

It is also clear that "Putin means it first".

Russia and the big concern in Finland and Sweden: ex-head of government explains the relationship

Meanwhile, former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt explained why lockstep is so important for the countries in a guest article for the

.

He referred to the always close ties between the two countries when it came to choosing an alliance: In the period after the Second World War, NATO membership was never an option for Finland on the western border of the Soviet Union.

Sweden has also renounced - out of concern that accession could prompt Stalin to attack the neighboring country.

Even after joint accession to the EU in 1995 and the "NATO Partnership for Peace" together with Russia, full NATO membership was not an issue.

The situation only changed with Vladimir Putin's attacks on neighboring countries such as Georgia and Ukraine from 2008 - now the debate is picking up speed.

The reason for this is also negative prospects for the future: after much hesitation, Sweden decided to deliver weapons to Ukraine, recalls

Bildt, of the 17,000 armor-piercing weapons that were said to have arrived there, 5,000 came from Swedish army stocks.

Bildt's conclusion: "The relationship with the regime in Moscow will almost certainly be one of deep dislike as long as Putin remains in power."

It has not gone unnoticed that during the crisis the United States drew a clear line between the states to which NATO Article 5 applies and those to which it does not.

Sweden's ex-Prime Minister Carl Bildt in a guest article for the Washington Post

The decision to join will be largely determined by "politics" and "political leadership," suspects Bildt.

Despite a reference to pros and cons, the conservative Bildt leaves no doubt about his personal opinion in his contribution: There is “no way back to a past of illusory neutrality,” he writes.

There is only the choice between a "slightly uncertain in-between and the recognition of a new reality and the step into full membership".

That has also become clear in Sweden, says the 72-year-old: "It has not gone unnoticed that the United States drew a clear line during the crisis between the states to which NATO Article 5 applies and those to which that is not the case.” Bildt had already made a worrying assessment of Vladimir Putin’s intentions at the end of 2021.

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