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“With more renewable energies, the Vladimir Putins would have less power”

2022-03-21T04:21:10.515Z


Specialist in migration and geopolitics of climate change, the Belgian François Gemenne warns that a warmer world will also be more violent


The Belgian François Gemenne, specialist in geopolitics of climate change.

The hot war

is the title of the book that Belgian François Gemenne (Liège, 41 years old), a specialist in migration and geopolitics of the climate crisis, has just published along with two other authors.

According to this professor at the University of Liège and researcher for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the increase in the planet's temperature poses new challenges for the security and defense of countries.

This has to do with the greater competition for resources, food sovereignty, migratory movements, but also with energy.

As he laments, it is sad that a war like the one in Ukraine has to take place for European states to realize the serious mistake of still depending on Vladimir Putin's oil and gas.

Ask.

What do you call "hot war"?

Answer.

Obviously, it is a reference to the Cold War, but in this case it is about the set of impacts of climate change that will transform security and defense policies.

Global warming generates new factors of conflict.

Q.

What do you mean?

R.

All the data shows that a warmer world is also a more violent world.

This occurs as a consequence of increased competition for resources, land in particular, with the resurgence of terrorism, especially in the Sahel area, which feed directly on the impacts of climate change.

There will be more competition and tensions over land and, at the same time, new missions for the armies, because they will be more in demand for humanitarian operations.

Q.

What are the keys to the geopolitics of a warmer world?

A.

As climate impacts become more evident and problematic, there are countries that are going to lose important parts of their territory, they are going to lose essential elements for their food sovereignty, because agriculture is going to become difficult, and these populations can rise up against the nations responsible for this situation.

We also see that energy issues are directly linked to conflicts.

Both climate scientists and security and defense experts agree on the need to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, because it is a risk for the climate, but also for security and peace.

P.

This has a lot to do with what is happening right now in Ukraine.

A.

Absolutely.

If energy transition policies had been implemented 10 or 20 years ago, today we would not be so dependent on Russia for gas and oil.

And this same thing also caused Europe to let Vladimir Putin do things in Chechnya, Crimea or Donbas, while he poisoned his opponents.

Somehow, we didn't want to get angry with

our

hydrocarbon

dealer

.

Q.

Can these conflicts be reduced with renewable energies?

A.

The advantage of renewable energies is that they allow much greater energy autonomy, they are much more decentralized energies.

Our problem today with hydrocarbons is that they create dependencies with authoritarian regimes, since these energies are controlled by countries like Russia, Qatar, Venezuela...

P.

But to manufacture renewable energies, minerals are also needed that are only found in certain countries.

A.

Energy independence is never perfect.

Indeed, it is necessary to have materials for all energy sources.

The big question today is to know who we want to depend on.

Do we want to depend on each other within the European Union, with a real European energy strategy, or do we not mind depending on authoritarian regimes like Russia?

It seems obvious, but the truth is that we have not yet managed to change this.

"The conflict in Ukraine can be an accelerator of a true energy policy in Europe"

P.

With more renewable energies there will be less Vladimir Putin?

A.

With more renewable energies, the Vladimir Putins have less power.

They are not perfect, but they do have this advantage.

Q.

Could the war in Ukraine affect the fight against climate change?

R.

It is very sad that it took a war to suddenly pay attention to arguments about energy sobriety or food sovereignty, but the conflict in Ukraine can be an accelerator of a real energy policy in Europe.

P.

But the conflict is also causing decisions in the opposite direction, such as the commissioning of coal power plants again.

A.

Inevitably there are going to be some temporary setbacks.

But I want to be optimistic, because apart from the climate threat, there are two other strong arguments right now: the certainty that renewable energy allows us to reduce our dependence on authoritarian regimes and the current explosion in energy prices in many European countries.

Increasing renewable energy is also the best way to prevent energy bills from skyrocketing.

P.

The impacts of climate change are also going to cause more displacement of people.

R.

There are regions that are going to become literally uninhabitable, either because they are going to flood, because it is very hot or because it becomes impossible to grow anything.

Q.

Is the severity of climate change going to depend largely on what happens at the borders with immigration?

R.

It is clear that the closure of the borders is going to cause dramas.

Faced with the increase in climate impacts, the increase in inequalities or the increase in authoritarian regimes, obviously, a greater opening of borders would allow better organization and regulation of migration in the world in the interest of all.

P.

What do you think of Europe's reception of refugees from Ukraine?

R.

What the reception of Ukrainian refugees in Europe shows us is that when we want it is possible.

In three weeks we have welcomed nearly twice as many Ukrainians as all the Syrian refugees received by Europe in the space of two years.

When the refugee crisis in Syria, it was said that the situation in Europe was going to explode, that it was unsustainable.

Now with those from Ukraine we see that it can be done when the political will is put into organizing immigration.

P.

The war has left the last report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the background, in which you have also participated.

What would you highlight about this job?

R.

This report underlines how urgent adaptation policies are and how climate change can cause migration and conflict.

The problem is that we always wait for crises to react.

The IPCC messages are warnings for anticipation.

Do not wait until the last moment, because it will already be too late.

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Source: elparis

All news articles on 2022-03-21

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