Sand Banshan Notes | Special First Choice Battle: "Detonate" the first shock bomb as soon as next week!

The new crown epidemic is on the decline, but the death rate is still high and rampant. Many Hong Kong people worry that the election of the Chief Executive will be postponed again.

Sha Banshan has learned that Beijing and the Hong Kong government should have no intention of rescheduling for the time being, unless there is another unpredictable major event, so it was postponed for a while, and the nomination period for the chief executive election between April 3 and April 16, It is expected that the "running" will remain unchanged, and the "true son" who is eagerly awaited by the political and business circles may soon be unveiled!

If the Secretary is to run for election, he must take a trilogy

Looking back at the 2017 Chief Executive Election, the nomination period for that year started on February 14. The then Financial Secretary, John Tsang, took the lead in resigning as early as December 12, 2016. Strangely, Tsang resigned early in the morning, but it was not confirmed by the State Council for a long time. "Removal". Later, the then Chief Secretary for Administration, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, announced her resignation on January 12, 2017, and both of them were accepted by the State Council to resign on the 16th. , that is, announced the official candidacy on the 19th.

In other words, if the same drama is staged this year, and the Chief Secretary for Administration or the Financial Secretary continues to seek to compete for the chief executive, they will have to go through the above-mentioned "trilogy". run for the next chief executive.

Since April 3 (Sunday) is the start of the nomination period, it is next week, and the current director may resign at any time and compete, detonating the first shock bomb of the special selection battle.

Speaking of the Chief Executive's runners, there are five horses that have been most talked about in recent months and are considered to have the highest probability of "going out". Why don't we wait for Sand Ban Shan to summarize the latest battle situation for everyone.

It is said that Chen Feng Fuzhen is quite old and has no intention of going out

Former WHO Director-General and member of the Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference Margaret Chan was widely rumored to be the chief executive's dark horse many months ago. There was speculation that he was supported by the United Hong Kong Fund led by Tung Chee-hwa, vice chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference. It was said that she had already started to "bury the shift", and the middleman went out and asked the wise men to submit their resumes.

As the so-called: groundless, there must be a reason.

Margaret Chan's sudden change of "suspected candidate" is not for no reason.

Sha Banshan heard a version, saying that in the middle of last year, Beijing executives did send staff to initially contact Chen Margaret to ask about her intention to run for the chief executive, and "encourage" her to use her residual energy to contribute to the country and Hong Kong.

Generally speaking, if someone receives this message, they must be gearing up for it, but Margaret Chan doesn't seem to be the case. She thought about it a lot, considering her age, and finally did not intend to come out.

That is to say, in this horse racing competition, Margaret Chan has taken the initiative to step out of the sand ring.

Leung Chun-ying "Race the Difficulty", the chance of a successful "return" is slightly lower

Another frequently mentioned dark horse, the former chief executive Leung Chun-ying, recently reported that he, who was originally unable to enter the gate, has successfully lobbied the Central Committee to "open the gate" and let him go off the field to compete.

But political circles are dubious about this, for two main reasons.

First, against the backdrop of the continuation of the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong and the sharply shortened campaign period for the chief executive, this election is likely to return to the "Macau model", that is, one person runs, one person gets enough nominations, and one person is elected. Turning the page for Leung Chun-ying, the chances of opening up as a "two-person gathering" are not high.

Second, some pro-establishment people joked that if Leung Chun-ying has been "blessed" and sits firmly on the fishing boat, why should the "Leung fans" persevere in sniping the Chief Executive Carrie Lam?

President Xi Jinping issued an order that "anti-epidemic is overriding everything". If Leung Chun-ying already has a horse-racing ticket in his hand, "Liang Ying" should "squat down" and run for the fight against the epidemic.

Therefore, it is generally estimated in the political circle that Leung Chun-ying can successfully "turn over" and has a low chance of regaining the tickets for the chief executive election.

Ye Liu Shuyi, chairman of the New Democratic Party.

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Ye Liu Shuyi's old Ji Fuzheng has a hard injury on the background of AO

In 2012, Ye Liu Shuyi, the chairman of the New Democratic Party, who had already intended to compete for the chief executive position, but abandoned the election because she could not get 150 nomination votes, this year's entry "qualifying table", although the situation is indeed better than the previous two, but To come out on top, it seems that the goal is still far away.

A senior politician analyzed that after Tsang and Carrie Lam, the central government has lost confidence in the people trained by the administrative officer system, and dare not entrust the chief executive to AO again, and Ye Liu Shuyi is precisely in the administrative officer system. watcher.

Under this special background, Ye Liu Shuyi's market is naturally underestimated.

Chen Maobo and Li Jiachao jingle the horse's head sharply

Since Margaret Chan, Leung Chun-ying and Yip Lau Suk-yi are not favored, the remaining two, namely Chief Secretary Li Jiachao and Financial Secretary Chen Maobo, have become the dark horse of the two dark horses.

Sha Banshan inquired from different channels. Currently, the two of them have the highest market prices, and it is difficult to distinguish between them.

Among them, Chen Maobo published his last "Financial Budget" last month, including announcing the distribution of 10,000 yuan of electronic consumer coupons. The latest polls show that his net worth has reached a new high in five years. The "reassurance pill" that made speeches.

As for Li Jiachao, his state is also getting more and more courageous. Earlier, he led several directors to cross the Shenzhen River to discuss anti-epidemic measures with central officials, which shows Beijing's trust in him.

If the chief executive election is likened to a real horse racer, Chen Maobo and Li Jiachao are also on the fast track.

Tsang Chun-wah resigned as financial secretary that year and waited more than a month for the approval of the central government.

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The nomination period remains unchanged, and the real life will be revealed as soon as next week

The Hong Kong government announced last month that the election of the chief executive will be postponed to May 8, and the nomination period will be changed to April 3 to 16.

Looking back at the timeline of the last 2017 Chief Executive Election, the nomination period started on February 14, when Carrie Lam, who was backed by Beijing at the time, resigned as Chief Secretary for Administration on January 12, and four days after the Central Committee, on January 16 , approved her and Tsang Junhua's resignation.

According to this rule, if Chen Maobo or Li Jiachao runs for the election, it is very likely that they will announce their resignation next week. Once the central government approves it, they will immediately collect nomination votes. Soon after the nomination period starts on April 3, they will officially sign up for the election. .

And this will become a dazzling news landscape under the wave of anti-epidemic that lasts for many months.

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