Ukraine war: military expert expects Russian offensive on Kyiv - because new forces will soon be drafted
Created: 03/22/2022, 22:22
By: Jonas Raab
Russian President Vladimir Putin on Defender of the Fatherland Day at the end of February.
Will the ruler soon get a large number of new soldiers?
© ITAR-TASS/imago
According to a military expert, in April there will be a major showdown in the Ukraine war.
However, his colleagues are skeptical.
Kyiv/Moscow - It has been almost a month since Russia's ruler Vladimir Putin sent his soldiers to Ukraine on a "peace mission", which is nothing more than a war of aggression.
Since then, the Russian troops have been advancing far less quickly than the Kremlin had hoped.
Kyiv speaks of 15,000 dead Russian soldiers in the escalating Ukraine conflict.
How high the number really is cannot be verified at the moment.
An expert is now warning of a massive wave of attacks that are soon to roll out from Moscow.
Gustav Gressel from the European Council on Foreign Relations assumes that Putin will launch a new offensive in April.
"The Russian army is exhausted and urgently needs new forces," said the security and military expert to the
editorial network Germany (RND)
.
Gressel provided a specific date as the reason for his second wave fear.
War in Ukraine: In April, the Russian army could grow by up to 75,000 soldiers
New forces are drafted into the Russian army twice a year;
the next deadline is April 1st.
According to RND, 60,000 to 75,000 soldiers should then be given a contract and thus be available to Putin for the Ukraine war.
The background: Only trained, contracted soldiers can officially be deployed on foreign missions - although there are reports that many Russian conscripts have already been forced to sign contracts even though they had not yet completed their basic training.
Gressel expects thousands of conscripts to be persuaded or forced to join the Ukraine war as contract soldiers in April.
The military expert also mentions bribery as a possible course of action by the Kremlin.
If the new armed forces are ready, Russia could completely encircle Kyiv in April, Gressel warns.
So far, this has not been possible for Putin due to a lack of soldiers.
Ukraine war: Russian major offensive in April?
Russia expert disagrees
Russia expert Gerhard Mangott sees things differently than Gressel.
The political scientist at the University of Innsbruck doubts whether a larger number of Russian troops would really influence the Ukraine war in the way Gressel believes.
More soldiers are not required for the fighting.
Putin only needs them if he wants to occupy Ukraine, Mangott told the
RND
: "I rather expect that Russia will use significantly more military equipment in this conflict."
However, Gressel is certain: The West, which is probably currently working out new sanctions against Russia, now has two to three weeks to equip Ukraine with much-needed anti-aircraft missiles, tanks and other weapons before the Russian onslaught in April.
In particular, politicians in Berlin would underestimate the possible Russian April offensive, Gressel told
RND
.
Showdown of the Ukraine conflict in April: How big will Putin's war offensive really be?
Roderich Kiesewetter, CDU member of the German Bundestag and Colonel a.
D. of the Bundeswehr does not believe in a Russian offensive, as outlined by military expert Gressel.
"It could be maybe 10,000 or 20,000 additional soldiers that Russia will have available from April," Kiesewetter told
RND
.
Despite the additional soldiers, Kiesewetter considers a resounding Russian success to be unlikely, since they are unlikely to be particularly motivated.
The Russians who are conscripted today would know that their comrades were sent to the Ukraine war under the pretext of training – and many were wounded and killed there.
The new arrivals in April could therefore weaken cohesion in the Russian army even further, the CDU politician suspects.
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