Traffic light disagreement: Friedrich Merz hits the mark

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Merz at the Bundestag lectern, in the background Chancellor Scholz (SPD), his Vice Habeck (Greens) and Finance Minister Lindner (FDP)

Photo: Clemens Bilan / EPA

Even in the Union faction, most were surprised by what their chairman announced to the traffic light coalition on Wednesday morning in the Bundestag.

"If we come to an amendment to the Basic Law at all, then we will fill it out in such a way that a two-thirds majority will then be reached," said Friedrich Merz, referring to the planned special fund to upgrade the Bundeswehr.

The CDU leader added: "You will have to say yes to every single MP here."

The members of the CDU and CSU pricked up their ears at this moment, as did those of the SPD, Greens and FDP, but above all Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The head of government announced three weeks ago that he wanted to invest 100 billion euros in the German armed forces in response to the Russian attack on Ukraine.

His well-founded assumption was that the traffic light coalition could rely on the support of the Union for financing via a special fund, which would require a two-thirds majority in the Bundestag and Bundesrat to amend the Basic Law.

Group leader Merz immediately promised that at the time.

"We will support that and not complain about the small things," he said.

So far, Merz has been of the opinion that in these times, there should be no head-on opposition, he currently likes to talk about the political responsibility of the Union, even if it no longer governs.

However, his announcement on Wednesday does not fit this course.

Suddenly, Merz makes small things, in which he threatens the coalition to only allow exactly as many of his own MPs to vote for the amendment to the Basic Law as is needed for a two-thirds majority in Parliament, if all parliamentarians of the traffic light groups vote accordingly.

Apart from the practical and constitutional questions that arise, Merz is doing exactly what SPD leader Lars Klingbeil later accused him of: He is trying to play a tactical game – and is contradicting himself.

On the other hand, Merz shows - and that can remain the task of the opposition leader even in times of crisis - how shaky the Chancellor's position is at this point.

The only reason the threat from the Union faction leader caused such a stir in the coalition was that he made the chancellor's dilemma visible to everyone: Scholz does not have the support of all traffic light deputies (including the leading forces in the factions) for his idea, and he does cannot therefore ultimately count on all the votes in the coalition.

Scholz preferred to make the frame really big given his own weakness

The cool strategist Scholz should have already realized that even with a simple majority in parliament, it could be tight when he announced the 100 billion investment in the Bundeswehr in the Bundestag.

Then rather make the framework really big to whitewash the internal dissent - that's probably why he came up with the idea of ​​the special fund, apart from the budgetary advantages.

It is true that the chancellor is using the turning point of these days to make massive corrections to the country's foreign and security policy.

The fact that this leads to friction in his three-party coalition – most recently also evident in the dispute over a new relief package, which in the end apparently could only be resolved in a night session – is not surprising, but highly problematic for Scholz.

The coalition must use all its strength if it wants to get the country through these turbulent times, but above all its chancellor is in demand.

Relying on the Union is not enough.