Manage transatlantic drive

European leaders will exchange their views on the Russian invasion of Ukraine with Joe Biden at the start of their two-day summit in Brussels, following an emergency NATO meeting and a meeting of G7 heads of state. .

The high-level gathering comes at a critical time, following massive initial rounds of Western sanctions against the Kremlin and as transatlantic allies explore new measures to counter Russia's escalating violence.

The EU summit with Biden will be completed with new Western measures against Moscow.

There will also be joint commitments to strengthen military support for kyiv, a pledge by European allies to meet NATO's defense spending target of 2% of GDP by 2024, and the adoption of the EU Strategic Compass, a security framework for the bloc that includes further defense integration and a 5,000-strong rapid deployment force.

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Last minute of the war in Ukraine

Instead, Brussels and Washington are likely to focus on expanding existing measures rather than triggering major new sanctions.

EU leaders will reiterate their readiness to tighten sanctions against Russia as the bloc prepares a fifth package of measures to be implemented shortly.

Initiatives are likely to include more listings of oligarchs and efforts to close loopholes.

A Dutch proposal to attack corporate service providers — which set up trust funds and shell companies — to further restrict Russia's access to European markets is also likely.

The closure of European ports to Russian ships, which had already been discussed but ruled out as too difficult and damaging, could also appear, although it remains a challenge.

The EU could also enact additional export controls targeting energy, technology, communications and other industries.

But Brussels remains far from consensus on imposing bans on Russian energy imports.

Although Biden's participation in the summit will strengthen supporters of the oil and coal ban – Poland and the Baltic countries – the US president is unlikely to bring about change in the EU.

Strong German resistance, the Hungarian veto threat and the tacit backing of most EU members against immediate decoupling will prevent action against Russian oil and coal.

That said, the odds of an oil ban could increase as Russia steps up its attacks.

The Mariupol stories can bolster public opinion against Russia, and a similar siege or attack in kyiv or other major Ukrainian cities could be the breaking point.

Although the EU will carefully avoid articulating red lines, diplomats suggest that anything from the use of prohibited (chemical, biological) or nuclear weapons to the seizure of kyiv, the assassination of President Volodymyr Zelensky and even the collapse of the Ukrainian-Ukrainian talks and Russia could act as triggers.

But the current intensity of the war will not necessarily lead to new forceful sanctions.

EU members like the Czech Republic, Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Sweden and Slovakia — the latter two heavily dependent on Russian oil — are already willing to support an oil ban.

This move would likely involve a phased approach to help Berlin and other sensitive capitals manage change.

This would mean that EU members with little exposure to Russian crude would impose import bans, others would focus on some oil products but not all crude, and the most dependent countries, such as Germany, would try to keep most of their short-term imports.

Like the debate over the EU's SWIFT payment system, in which the bloc went from no to yes to banning several Russian banks in a couple of days, the oil sanctions debate is and will continue to be very fluid. .

Although the trajectory of the Ukraine war will continue to be the main driver, European events will also play a role.

President Emmanuel Macron will have more wiggle room to support oil bans after securing re-election in April.

And many EU members will feel more comfortable backing measures to cut Russian crude imports after the European Commission unveils a framework to reduce the bloc's energy dependence on Moscow.

For the EU, countering the risks posed by high energy prices will be paramount to realizing its ambition to end its dependence on Russian oil, gas and coal.

This requires short-term and long-term solutions, which the leaders will commission from the EU Commission and Council in the coming months.

Although Spain, Greece, Italy and Portugal have also won the support of France, Poland and Belgium for their proposal to cap gas prices and decouple electricity and gas prices, pressure from southern Europe to reducing energy bills gives rise to the revision of the market that Madrid wants.

Instead, member states are likely to support joint EU gas purchasing and a Commission proposal that would oblige member states to fill their gas tanks to at least 90% capacity by 1 October.

With these measures, EU leaders aim to spread costs fairly, take advantage of low summer demand and avoid supply shortages and price rises next winter.

These steps will complement each country's measures to offset the impact of rising energy prices, such as lower fuel taxes, subsidies for low-income households, and support for energy-intensive businesses. .

To do this, the EU will also use its state aid framework in the event of a crisis, which will give Member States ample scope to support consumers.

The EU's efforts to “eliminate as soon as possible its dependence on Russian gas, oil and coal imports” will take on greater importance at the end of May, when the Commission is due to present its RePowerEU plan.

The leaders' meeting on June 23-24, just before the G7 summit in Germany, will mark the extent and speed of the EU's disengagement from Russia.

Mujtaba Rahman

is Managing Director for Europe at Eurasia Group and a contributor to Agenda Pública.

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