Ukraine war: Russia expert sees no scenario in which Putin gives up - but there is a solution
Created: 03/26/2022, 04:50
By: Patrick Freiwah
Russian President Vladimir Putin at his desk in Moscow.
© IMAGO/Mikhail Klimentyev
An early end to the Ukraine war would be desirable for world peace.
A Russia expert explains how he sees the guns being silenced.
Moscow/Washington - In the Ukraine war, new reports are constantly being published, many of which come from supposedly well-informed US circles.
When it comes to an objective assessment of the precarious situation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the American political scientist Paul Christensen is probably one of the most well-founded voices: the man is a proven Russia expert.
In an interview with
Focus Online
, Christensen says that he doesn't believe in a foreseeable end to the invasion (news ticker): "I don't see a scenario in which (Vladimir) Putin gives up at the moment.
His city bombings suggest that the war will continue for a long time.” For him, there is nothing to indicate that the Russian president would surrender.
Ukraine war: end of the conflict only with NATO withdrawal and concessions?
However, the American sees a solution that could abruptly end the Ukraine conflict and create peace: It is in part the scenario that Russia and Putin have in mind - but so far no agreement has been reached: the assurance that Russian Security interests are no longer threatened in the form of NATO eastward expansion: "Apart from the West's assurance that Ukraine will never join NATO and significant concessions in the eastern provinces, I see little that could appease Putin or persuade him to sign a deal," explains the Russia expert.
According to him, the Russian people are divided - and the opposition to the government is dwindling every day, because: "One must not forget that the very people who have already left Russia would certainly have been the most willing to demonstrate." Christensen, who comes from the US East Coast city of Boston and has authored several books on Russian society, tells of Russian friends who, however, have different opinions: "Even among academics there are many who blame the West."
Christensen also names surveys by the opinion research institute Levada, according to which very few citizens support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
However, the USA and the EU are responsible for the crisis for more than 50 percent of the people - and President Vladimir Putin for just three percent.
Ukraine war: Expert believes “German pacifist attitude is a thing of the past”
As Christensen explains, Vladimir Putin's worldview has become increasingly radical in the past few years since 2010.
"He is extremely nationalistic and downright obsessed with protecting traditional values from modern, liberal ideas such as gay rights, which are common in the West," assesses the political expert.
The Russia insider also comments on the image of a cautious Federal Republic of Germany when it comes to global trouble spots like the Ukraine war.
He represents the thesis to
Focus Online
: “It is already clear that the German pacifist attitude is a thing of the past.
That's over now."
Ukraine war with Russia: Political scientist comments on the danger of a nuclear war
Finally, Christensen expresses his assessment of the danger of an impending nuclear war: The American does not believe that Vladimir Putin will show such a drastic reaction despite the panic mode.
"It's not just his war.
As in other countries, the Russian nuclear forces are subject to a separate, complex power structure with specific, detailed processes,” explains the political scientist.
He doubts that Russia's "elite structures would be willing to go down with him."
Because one thing should be certain: a war with nuclear weapons has the potential to wipe out the entire civilization.
Meanwhile, former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder is commenting on the war in Ukraine - and sees the cause of the conflict in a political failure.
By that he means specifically the relationship between Russia and the USA.
(PF)