China's rebellious partner in the Northeast: Kim Jong-un tests ICBM

Created: 03/27/2022, 11:56 am

By: Christiane Kuehl

China's uncomfortable partner: North Korea's ruler Kim Jong-un and two of his commanders in front of the ICBM colossus © AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS

Russia is not the only difficult partner for China.

North Korea is also causing trouble with a chain of missile tests.

And now the ruler Kim also ignited an ICBM.

Munich/Pyongyang – you've done it again.

On Thursday, for the first time since 2017, North Korea detonated an ICBM*, even larger and heavier than the missile at the time.

According to North Korean media, the nuclear-capable mega-rocket Hwasong-17 was launched at Pyongyang International Airport, after a vertical climb it reached a height of more than 6,200 kilometers and then sank at its intended target 1,090 kilometers from the starting point in the Sea of ​​Japan.

North Korean media described the new ICBM as "a reliable means of deterring nuclear war".

They accused the US of threatening North Korea with nuclear weapons.

His country is "fully prepared for a long-term confrontation with the US imperialists," they quoted ruler Kim Jong-un as saying.

Because of the "increasingly dangerous provocations" by North Korea, the US wants to introduce a resolution in the UN Security Council to "update and strengthen the existing sanctions regime", as US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield said on Friday during a session of the highest UN body said.

The G7 countries and the EU had previously condemned the test.

"This ruthless approach threatens peace and security both in the region and internationally," said the foreign ministers of the seven influential industrialized countries and the EU in a joint statement on Friday.

South Korea and Japan had already condemned the test on Thursday.

But there was no word from Beijing.

North Korea teases China with missile tests

Beijing is protective of Pyongyang as ever.

Most recently, at the beginning of March, together with Moscow, it blocked the UN Security Council's condemnation of the latest missile tests.

But it has been an open secret for many years that Beijing is unenthusiastic about the Kim dynasty's nuclear program.

After Russia isolated itself internationally through the Ukraine invasion, China now has two pariah states as neighbors and partners.

And both brandish their nuclear weapons.

So far this year, ruler Kim Jong-un has launched a whopping eleven test series with dozens of rockets, more than ever before in such a short period of time.

According to information from Seoul and Washington, Kim wanted to test a Hwasong-17 last week, officially under the pretext of launching a "reconnaissance satellite".

But the test failed;

the rocket exploded shortly after launch over Pyongyang*, debris rained down on the city's suburbs.

Kim ignites as fiercely as during a phase of nuclear and missile testing between 2016 and 2017. At that time, he was already testing three ICBMs and claimed to be able to reach anywhere in the United States.

During the summit diplomacy with ex-US President Donald Trump, Kim stopped the tests for the time being.

However, the test series had also cooled relations with China – Beijing had no access to the young Kim, and the government was particularly annoyed by nuclear tests.

During the test stop in 2018, Head of State Xi Jinping Kim received with all honors for a state visit in Beijing.

It will be interesting to see how the relationship develops again.

North Korea: Kim Jong-un planning nuclear tests again?

Because there are indications that Kim is planning nuclear tests again this time.

New satellite images also show activities at the Punggye-ri nuclear test facility, which was actually shut down in 2018, as Reuters reported in early March.

It is the only known nuclear test site.

North Korea* has steadily developed its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, according to a UN report at the beginning of February.

That in itself violated existing UN resolutions.

Among the 130 missiles and four nuclear warheads Kim has tested since taking office ten years ago is an ICBM called the Hwasong-15 that could reach the White House.

In January, North Korea said it fired two hypersonic missiles and a Hwasong-12 medium-range missile, the most powerful missile since 2017. Hwasong-12 could at least hit the US Pacific base in Guam.

More medium-range missiles followed in late February and early March.

Experts are registering mutual amplification of the geopolitical interference fields emanating from Russia and North Korea.

"I think Beijing is very concerned about the instability created by Russia and the possibility that North Korea could use this as an opportunity to escalate tensions," said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, North Korea expert at King's College London, to Merkur.de* .

Testing an ICBM is bad news.

Even more so because North Korea apparently wants to station its ICBMs close to China's territory.

Using satellite imagery, the American Center for Strategic and International Studies recently identified a designated military base at Hoejung-ni, just 25 kilometers from the Chinese border.

China has to deal with Kim

China puts a good face on the bad game.

Head of state Xi Jinping* only emphasized the importance of bilateral cooperation again at the end of February.

Both sides recently resumed freight train traffic across the Yalu River near Dandong, which had been halted due to the corona pandemic.

Bilateral trade was therefore 40 times the previous year's level at USD 136.5 million in January and February.

The fact that this meager volume accounts for around 90 percent of North Korea's foreign trade shows Kim's isolation from and dependence on China.

But Kim still does not allow himself to be talked into comprehensively.

He knows that Beijing is also supporting North Korea's ailing economy because the country is an important buffer state for China.

Welcome to Beijing: North Korea's ruler Kim Jong-un and his wife Ri Sol Ju (both left) are welcomed by China's head of state Xi Jinping and his wife Peng Liyuan in 2018 © AFP PHOTO/KCNA VIA KNS

But that's not the whole story.

"North Korea has gained strategic value for China in recent years," says North Korea expert Christopher Green of the Crisis Group think tank.

"China and the United States are engaged in a 'Great Game' on China's east coast, and this competition begins in the northeast with the Korean Peninsula," Green

– alluding to the struggle of the great powers for supremacy in Central Asia 150 years ago.

"North Korea is unruly and troublesome, but China is rightly viewed as the only country even capable of influencing North Korea's actions.

That North Korea observed a moratorium on missile tests during the Beijing Winter Olympics* suggests Pyongyang knows when it's important not to stir up trouble."

For Beijing, meanwhile, North Korea's function as a bulwark against the USA* is a priority.

"I think the two main reasons China supports North Korea are geopolitics and border stability

are,” says Pardo.

"If North Korea ceases to exist, Korea will reunite under South Korean conditions." It is well known that China dreads US soldiers on its border.

And there are still 28,500 US soldiers in South Korea.

At the same time, it fears a wave of refugees if the regime collapses.

"It would be difficult for Beijing to handle a large sudden influx of refugees," says Pardo.

So China has to deal with Kim.

Is there a threat of rearmament in the south because of North Korea?

Meanwhile, Kim's motivation is unclear.

Does he want to force the US back to the table with his new tests?

And if so, what for?

Washington's attitude of not giving up US sanctions without significant concessions from Kim is unlikely to have changed.

North Korea is important enough to the US, despite the Ukraine war, that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan raised the issue at the recent meeting on the Ukraine war with China's foreign policy czar Yang Jiechi in Rome, according to the White House.

Sullivan stressed his "serious concern" about North Korea.

Yang's answer is unknown.

Meanwhile, military experts fear an arms race in the Far East as a result of the North Korean missile tests.

According to a recent survey, 71 percent of South Koreans are in favor of their country developing its own nuclear weapons.

56 percent would be for the stationing of American nuclear weapons.

It is unclear how the recent presidential election in South Korea will affect it.

Future President Yoon Suk-yeol is seen as a China critic and in favor of a closer alliance with the US and groups like the Quad.

Pardo believes that when dealing with North Korea, Yoon "gives deterrence and human rights just as much priority as potential engagement."

North Korea probably not ready to negotiate - not even in China

There doesn't seem to be a way out for the time being.

Pardo and Green firmly believe that North Korea will under no circumstances give up its nuclear program.

The US government emphasized on Friday that the door to dialogue was still open.

Kim is also currently not interested in multilateral negotiations like the six-party talks hosted by China in the 2000s.

The Ukraine war is "a reminder to Pyongyang that North Korea's main defense against outside interference is its nuclear weapons," Green said.

"But I think Beijing would be willing to hold talks as soon as North Korea was willing to take part." (ck)