"The action of war essentially assumes the character of contingency."
Vladimir Putin probably didn't read the first sentence of the first chapter of
Edge of the Sword
by Charles de Gaulle, published in 1932. He is living it, at his own expense and at that of the Russian army.
We will beware of any triumphalism in the face of the moral defeat of Vladimir Putin's regime, which can lead to the best (a change of regime, anchoring Russia to the West) or the worst (escalation of the conflict beyond Ukraine, with the use of unconventional weapons).
Our only certainty is that of the spectacular resilience of the Russian nation, proven repeatedly in modern history;
and, by contrast, deep questions about our ability to resist, as a nation, economy and French society, the consequences of a lasting and worsening conflict.
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