The nomination period for the once postponed chief executive election will start next Sunday (April 3). Sha Banshan received news that the election committee composed of nearly 1,005 election committees, among them the fifth group called the "national team" (mainly a group of 300 people composed of members of national organizations such as the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), the relevant authorities in Beijing suggested that they must stay in Hong Kong as much as possible on that day. As for the reasons for staying in Hong Kong, no explanation was given.
In addition, news from different channels pointed out that there is a good chance that Macau's "one-person election model" will be adopted in this year's chief executive election. Recently, potential candidates who tend to run for election have received "warm reminders" one after another, not to make "useless actions." ".
According to Sha Banshan's earlier analysis, based on the track record of the previous chief executive election, the two most popular Chief Secretary for Administration, Li Jiachao and Financial Secretary Chen Maobo, if they act according to the "trajectory" of the previous term, either or one of them may take the lead this week. Resign, then report to the State Council for approval, and then announce the official candidacy for the chief executive, but after all, this is only an analysis of the election campaign, not a definite development.
Sha Ban Shan has always written in a style of "news + analysis". In view of the large scale of the Chief Executive's election, in order to make it clear, Sha Ban Shan will analyze the latest trends of each potential candidate in a "carpet style" according to the latest news above, so as to ensure that no omission.
Li Jiachao and Chen Maobo's two favorites are hidden and hidden
After Li Jiachao and Chen Maobo were rated as popular by Sha Banshan earlier, they immediately aroused heated discussions in the political circles whether the two directors will resign this week?
Reporters also inquired about the press secretaries of the two senior officials, and the replies were either disguised denials or refusal to comment on speculation.
During the period, Sand Ban Shan also inquired about the following progress. A Hong Kong government source and a well-informed source in the business community both said that there are "signs" that Chen Maobo will run for the chief executive election.
In fact, Cai Ye has been very brave recently, holding high the anti-epidemic tone of "dynamic clearing", and seems to be ready to go out at any time.
However, many politicians commented that Cai Ye is a kind person and has the advantage of being harmonious, but he lacks the courage to carry out reforms.
A real estate giant told Sha Banshan that he has not received any conclusive information. Who is Beijing's favorite choice?
However, he analyzed that if Beijing attaches importance to national security as the main theme of Hong Kong's governance in the next few years, it is estimated that Li Jiachao will still be the best choice for the next chief executive.
However, a well-connected source in China and Hong Kong made it clear to Sha Banshan that Li Jiachao is not the ideal choice for Beijing's next chief executive.
Leung Chun-ying and Deng Bing-keung are talents with "big break and great success"
A senior CPPCC member revealed that during the two sessions in March, the CPPCC Vice-Chairman Leung Chun-ying's camp was very active. Leung Chun-ying, who usually behaves "cold", took the initiative to talk to the election committee, and his "loyal fan" who is also a member of the CPPCC did not shy away from revealing to others, Leung Chun-ying is ready, with his platform and team ready, and can go to Malaysia to run for election at any time. His attitude is even more confident, but he added that he still needs the instructions of the central government.
Some people in Liang Yingzhong admitted that everything is ready now, only for the "North Wind". Looking around the potential hot candidates, especially the bureau-level officials, it is not easy for them to resign, form a team, write a political platform and run again in a short period of time. , Leung Chun-ying has considerable advantages in this regard.
A person who has observed and analyzed Hong Kong politics for many years believes that Leung Chun-ying should be quite sure that he is by no means just an escort of the "Bo Chong Gate", but has a good chance of turning over the table.
Another source well-connected between China and Hong Kong revealed to Sha Banshan that in the past two years, Beijing has conducted an unprecedented large-scale survey in order to find its favorite candidate for the next chief executive and recommend it to the selection committee. A great talent who can "big break the big li", led Hong Kong to start anew, after repeated research and judgment, he believed that among the excellent talents of Xiangjiang Yunyun, there was a "big breaking big li" talent, and dared to make decisions, only Leung Chun-ying and the current Secretary of Security, Deng Bingqiang However, after all, Deng Bingqiang has a relatively shallow quality and history, which has become his "hard injury", but Deng is well-received in the establishment camp. If Beijing is determined to make a big breakthrough in Hong Kong's future reforms this time, it will not rule out "exceptional" and bold use of Deng Bingqiang.
After the top four stand out, the remaining upsets are counted one by one
Sha Banshan has stated earlier that the former WHO Director-General Margaret Chan was once one of the most popular. However, she felt that she was over seventy years old and was powerless, so she had turned down the invitation from Beijing and had no intention of running for election.
As for Ye Liu Shuyi, a member of the Executive Council and the Legislative Council, who has always been rumored to be interested in running for the chief executive, it is reported that people familiar with Beijing have given Ye Liu a "warm reminder" that her chances of being accepted for the nomination this year are very low. "?
Sha Banshan is making inquiries to Ye Tai about this news, but has not yet received a reply.
As for the current Chief Executive Carrie Lam, Sha Banshan seldom mentioned that she was a potential candidate for the next term. It was by no means that she had any prejudice against Mrs. Lam, but it was true that she had rarely heard any news that she was likely to be re-elected.
As for Chen Zhisi, the convener of the Executive Council, Cha Shimeilun, Chairman of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Li Xiaojia, the former Chief Executive Officer of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Chen Delin, the former Chief Executive of the HKMA, Li Guozhang and Liao Changjiang, members of the guild, although Gong Gong has columnists from time to time, " Like" is expected to become the chief executive, but Sha Banshan has been diligently inquiring, and so far, he has not heard of these talents, and the market is suddenly bullish.
What is the reason for calling the "national team" 403?
In addition, some election committees who stayed in the mainland after attending the two sessions said that they received a reminder to return to Hong Kong before April 3, but it was not a mandatory rule, "May 8 (the polling day) must be in Hong Kong"; The Election Committee of the team said that it had not received any notification, but had planned to stay in Hong Kong for the next month and a half to fulfill the responsibilities of the Election Committee.
Sha Banshan boldly speculated that Beijing suddenly "bringing chickens" called up about 300 "national teams" from the fifth sector to take the opportunity to stand by on the first day of the nomination period. It may be that they hope that Beijing will choose their favorite choice. The number of nomination votes mobilized by the power of Honghuang, let all circles of society know who is the "true son of heaven", pave the way for the implementation of the one-person election model, and finally strive to reduce internal friction and concentrate on choosing the fifth Chief Executive.
Sand Banshan Notes | Special First Choice Battle: "Detonate" the first shock bomb as soon as next week!
Sha Banshan Notes｜On the eve of Xi Jinping's "epidemic control order", Carrie Lam was summoned to Shenzhen to meet the central government's chief executive election｜It is rumored that Li Jiachao and Chen Maobo were planning to resign and run for election. Both denied or did not comment on the chief executive election. Still: Anti-epidemic is the only job
