The working premise of the defense establishment is that the wave of terrorism that began earlier this month has not yet reached its peak, and it may intensify from next week with the start of the month of Ramadan.
The main effort, therefore, is to try to calm the area.
This effort will take place simultaneously in several arenas - Judea and Samaria, East Jerusalem, Gaza, the countries of the region and of course Israeli Arabs - and in several ways, including thwarting and intelligence and operational activities, but also by operating political, economic, legal, media and intellectual levers.
The feverish discussions that have taken place in the last day at the top of the political-security arena are intended to synchronize these efforts.
It was clear to all those involved that Israel was currently treading on thin ice;
If you do not cross it carefully, it could meet a high bar of violence in the coming weeks.
Naturally, and against the background of the recent terrorist attacks in Be'er Sheva and Hadera, most of the concern and attention is now focused on the internal arena, including ISIS and its supporters among Israeli Arabs.
The GSS data show that there are several hundred Muslims in Israel who have expressed support for the ideas of the "Islamic State," several dozen of whom have been marked as having the potential to carry out terrorist activities. The first group is under general supervision Under tighter supervision, to make sure it does not work.
The increase in danger was missed
The perpetrators of the last two attacks were known to the GSS, which missed their move to the second, active group. Others will decide to emulate the success of the previous attacks, and act inspired by them.
Defense Minister Gantz on the terrorists: "Everyone is in our sights or will enter it" // Photo: IDF Spokesman
Following the Operation Walls and Violence Operation in the Mixed Cities, the GSS made significant changes in the way it operates in the Arab sector. Still, the capabilities of deterrence and deterrence against Israeli Arabs are significantly less than against Palestinian terrorism. Demolition of terrorist homes, and restrictions on the use of various technological means.
It is not certain that the use of these tools would also have thwarted the two attacks.
The terrorist in the GSS acted without anyone sharing his plans, and the terrorists in Hadera were a local cell. But the GSS must not make these assumptions for itself in the internal investigations;
Even if it is an unrealistic goal, it is expected to always strive for 100% frustration 100% of the time.
The little support is encouraging
At least in the near future this goal will be very difficult to achieve.
The area is saturated with fuel vapor, with each arena affecting the other.
Although Hamas has not been linked to the last two attacks, it is trying to encourage its supporters to act to inspire them to set fire to the West Bank and East Jerusalem as well.
The main challenge now will be to curb this - so it was decided to significantly increase the IDF forces in Judea and Samaria, and later the police forces in Jerusalem will be strengthened - in an attempt (whose success is doubtful) to allow as much as possible the holiday routine of the three religions.
It is not certain that this policy will be maintained throughout the coming month.
The continuation of the attacks will force Israel to act more aggressively, which may lead to a reaction on the Palestinian side, and to a lesser extent also among Israeli Arabs.
In the meantime, one can be encouraged by the little, if any, support that the terrorists receive on the Arab street (and also on the Palestinian one).
This shows that the vast majority want to live;
The challenge for security forces is to stem the current wave of terrorism, to enable them to do so.
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