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Talks between Russia and Ukraine advance through a minefield (Analysis)

2022-03-29T18:35:32.547Z


The atmosphere in the talks between Russia and Ukraine has been productive, managing to outline a plan for a truce.


Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia resume 5:35

(CNN) --

When the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine met in Turkey just 19 days ago, the atmosphere was toxic and neither side managed to go beyond reiterating their existing positions.


This Tuesday, at a meeting in Istanbul between the Russian and Ukrainian teams, the atmosphere was much more positive and the sketches, albeit faint, of an end to this terribly destructive war began to be visible.

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The Ukrainian side agreed to set aside the status of Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to Zelensky, said about the future of Crimea, whose annexation has not been accepted by either Ukraine or the West: "It was agreed bilaterally to pause for 15 years and conduct bilateral negotiations on the status of these territories.

"We further agreed that during the 15, while the bilateral negotiations are taking place, there will be no military hostility," he told reporters.

This removes one of the most contentious points from the negotiating table, for now.

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Both sides appeared to be in a constructive mood.

Podolyak said Russian negotiators have "taken the treaty that outlines ways to end the war and will work on its counterproposals."

Russian news agency TASS quoted Russian delegation leader Vladimir Medinsky as saying the talks were constructive.

He also stated that "Russia is taking two steps towards de-escalation in Ukraine."

The most immediate measure is the declaration that hostilities in Chernihiv and towards the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, will be drastically reduced.

Chernihiv, in northern Ukraine, has been surrounded by Russian forces and has suffered devastating destruction in the last three weeks.

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Just as significant, Medinsky asserted that Ukraine's current proposals are formulated in such a way that they can "be presented to the president. And we will give an appropriate response."

"As long as the deal is worked out quickly and a compromise is found, the opportunity to conclude peace will be closer," Medinsky said, the most optimistic assessment by a Russian official since the first round of talks in late February.

Russian officials have previously downplayed any involvement in the Putin process, saying more negotiations needed to be done before the Russian leader personally sat down for direct talks.

Now, the Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, citing the Russian delegation, spoke of the possibility of a meeting between Putin and Zelensky at the time of the signing of the peace treaty by the foreign ministers of both countries. .

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Cavusoglu, who brokered the talks, outlined a possible roadmap, with the "top priority of achieving a ceasefire as soon as possible to pave the way for a permanent political solution."

The "most complicated" issues would go to the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine to "make final adjustments to the common approach."

And then a meeting between Putin and Zelensky would be on the agenda, he told reporters after the talks.

An outline of the plan emerges

For Ukraine, security guarantees have always been a fundamental part of any solution to the conflict.

Little by little, President Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials have been moving away from Ukraine's past insistence that it has the right, even the obligation, to apply for NATO membership, as enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution.

Now a very different formulation is emerging.

One of the members of the Ukrainian negotiating team, Davyd Arakhamia, declared after the meeting on Ukrainian television: "We insist that it be an international treaty, with the signature of all security guarantors, which will be ratified."

That treaty would have to be ratified by the parliaments of the guarantor countries, according to the officials, who are evidently incorporating as many insurance companies as possible into the mechanism.

The Ukrainians also want the guarantors to be the permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia.

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The guarantees would be very specific, Arakhamia said.

In the event of aggression or a military operation directed at Ukraine, "consultations must take place within three days."

"Then the guarantor countries are obliged to help us. And the military aid, and the armed forces, and the weapons, and the closed sky, all of which we need so badly now, and we can't get it."

The Ukrainians are now considering what might be called protected and permanent neutrality.

Another member of the Ukrainian delegation, Oleksandr Chalyi, put it this way: "Doing everything to restore Ukraine's security is a key requirement. If we manage to consolidate these key provisions, which is the most fundamental requirement for us, Ukraine will indeed be in a position to fix its current status as a non-nuclear, non-aligned state in the form of permanent neutrality".

Significantly, Chalyi continued: "[We] will not deploy foreign military bases or military contingents on our territory, and we will not enter into politico-military alliances. Military training in our country will be done with the consent of our guarantor countries."

That is and always has been the core of Putin's demands, expressed in lengthy speeches before announcing the start of what Putin called a "special military operation."

Exchange NATO for the European Union

  • What is NATO, who are its members and when does it act?

It is becoming increasingly clear that, in exchange for giving up NATO ambitions, Ukraine hopes for a fast track to joining the European Union, for which it wants the help of guarantor countries.

The prospect of joining the European Union, which is popular with Ukrainians, is likely to help push through a global deal in the national referendum that the Ukrainian government has promised to approve neutrality with security guarantees.

Of course, there is still a long way to go.

The principles have been established, but the details, the sequence and the language can be a minefield, said Podolyak: "Without a doubt, this treaty on security guarantees can only be signed after a ceasefire and the complete withdrawal of Russian troops to their positions on February 23, 2022".

Although the Russians have agreed to reduce their forces' operations north of Kyiv, there is still much fighting going on: in the east, northeast and south.

Even before leaving the venue for negotiations, Medinsky warned that "gradual de-escalation" in the direction of Kyiv and Chernihiv "does not mean a ceasefire."

But he said: "We understand that there are people in Kyiv who need to make decisions, so we don't want to expose this city to additional risk."

So the clock keeps ticking.

If the talks falter or fail, Russian forces deploying from northern Kyiv could reinforce those trying to advance in the east and south.

In fact, this very weekend the head of Ukraine's military intelligence warned that Putin might be trying to split Ukraine into two, like North Korea and South Korea.

“There are reasons to believe that he is considering a 'Korean' scenario for Ukraine.

That is, [the Russian forces] will try to impose a dividing line between the occupied and non-occupied regions of our country.

In fact, it is an attempt to create a North Korea and a South Korea in Ukraine," Kyrylo Budanov said on Sunday.

Not only is there much to negotiate, in the absence of a full ceasefire.

On the Ukrainian side there is not much confidence in the Kremlin's intentions.

And as they never tire of saying, ultimately what happens depends on one man and one man only: Vladimir Putin.

war in ukraine

Source: cnnespanol

All news articles on 2022-03-29

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