Presidential 2022: "Should LR and LREM join forces?"

A keen observer of French political life and regular contributor to FigaroVox, Maxime Tandonnet published

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Georges Bidault - from the Resistance to French Algeria

FIGAROVOX.

- Many LR elected officials think they will join the presidential majority in the event of the re-election of the outgoing president.

Would it be a pragmatic choice, in your opinion, to influence the government's choices?

Maxime TANDONNET.

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It all depends on the conditions under which this movement would occur.

First, announcing it in advance, before the first round, would be felony by completing the scuttling of the candidacy of Valérie Pécresse.

Certainly, politics and morality, since Machiavelli, do not mix well.

But some opportunistic betrayals are so caricatural that they can only eventually turn against their authors and feed a deplorable image of political life.

In addition, the electoral situation seems extremely volatile and no one can swear today what the results of the first round will give and what will be the duel of the second round...

If the results of the first round confirm the verdict of the polls with the double qualification of Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, it is likely, in fact, that many deputies or candidates for deputy LR will join the candidacy of the current head of state to try to keep or win their seat.

In a climate of extreme confusion, the legislative elections will then lead to a composite majority, formed by the remains of LREM and the new rallies of LR, a majority which moreover may only be relative.

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From then on, everything will depend on the state of mind of the new LR ralliers: will they blend into a logic of obsequious presidential majority or will they intend to maintain freedom of speech and vote?

At first, the first hypothesis is likely to prevail.

But over time and the wear and tear of power, this composite majority has a good chance of fraying.

We would then have a National Assembly without a real stable majority and functioning on the basis of alliances of circumstance.

Based on the polls, no one can now rule out for sure the accession of Mrs. Le Pen to the Elysee.

Maxime Tandonnet

Marine Le Pen is experiencing strong growth in the polls, so that her accession to power no longer seems impossible.

Do you think some of the Republicans could also work with her?

Unlike 2017, even in the event of a second round between Ms. Le Pen and Mr. Macron, the re-election of the current president is far from certain (even if it remains probable).

Based on the polls, no one can now rule out for sure the accession of Mrs. Le Pen to the Elysee.

A wave of protest, fueled by the latest scandal, affecting the right but also part of the left, in a context of massive abstentionism, can lead to an "electoral earthquake".

But from then on, Ms. le Pen would probably not have a RN parliamentary majority given the weak local roots of this party.

However, the deputies of all stripes, from the legislative elections, will not be able to strike governments at the risk of plunging the country into indescribable chaos.

A coalition government would be formed, perhaps predominantly right-wing, but that's not even certain.

The most probable is that, in this hypothesis, the new president would find herself marginalized and that power would return permanently to the hands of a National Assembly, condemned to seek coalition majorities, and to the Prime Minister – probably from civil society. – which would emanate from it, with its government, in a context dominated by paralysis and instability.

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Will this election complete the recomposition of the French political landscape?

A recomposition, yes, but only in appearance.

The most likely scenario looming in the immediate future is indeed that of a "Third Force" government, with a head of state and his majority LREM / LR central coalition, harassed on both sides by a radicalized left (the one that votes for Mr. Mélenchon), and a powerful right made up of the electorate of Mrs. Le Pen and Mr. Zemmour.

This scheme also refers to the beginnings of the Fourth Republic from 1947 to 1951, when the alliance of the MRP and the SFIO defended the “System” against the PCF on its left and the RPF on its right.

All the pillars of the Fifth Republic are collapsing: the traditional parties, the right/left divide, the notion of presidential majority, the general interest, governmental authority...

Maxime Tandonnet

But in reality, the scenario of a recomposition is an illusion.

We are no doubt heading in the longer term towards an increasingly chaotic political situation.

For several years, the substance of French politics has been concentrated in the presidential image, reinforced by the succession of crises (“Yellow Vests”, Covid-19, Ukraine).

In the event of re-election, this presidential image will not fail to be hard hit by the wear and tear of power.

Moreover, as the news highlights, it is extremely fragile and precarious, permanently exposed to the risk of scandal or social discontent.

All the pillars of the Fifth Republic are collapsing: the traditional parties, the right/left divide, the notion of presidential majority, the general interest, governmental authority... There remains a certain Elysian "radiation" to cover the field of ruins, but for how much longer?

Then, on the ashes of French politics and an undoubtedly inevitable outbreak of violence, we will have to think about rebuilding democracy around local democracy, the referendum, a more equitable and better respected national representation, a more humble and less personalized approach to the common good.

But we're not there…