Former Russian official says Putin's days are numbered 1:16
(CNN) --
Russia has reassessed its war strategy in Ukraine to focus on trying to take control of Donbas and other regions in eastern Ukraine with a deadline set for early May, according to several US officials familiar with the latest developments. intelligence assessments.
More than a month after the war began, Russian ground forces have been unable to maintain control of the areas where they have fought.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to show he can pull off a victory, and eastern Ukraine is the most likely place he can do it quickly, officials say.
US intelligence intercepts suggest Putin is targeting May 9, Russia's "Victory Day," according to a US official.
ANALYSIS |
Putin is making the same mistakes that condemned Hitler when he invaded the Soviet Union.
May 9 is a very important holiday in Russia, as it commemorates the Nazi surrender in World War II with a large parade of troops and weapons in Red Square in front of the Kremlin.
Officials say Putin wants to celebrate that day a victory, of some kind, in his war.
But other officials point out that even if there is a Russian celebration, an actual victory may be further away.
“Putin will have a victory parade on May 9, regardless of the state of the war or the peace talks,” a European defense official noted.
“On the other hand: a victory parade with what troops and vehicles?”
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Still, US and European officials say any deadline Moscow may rhetorically set does not change the reality on the ground that Russia appears to be preparing for a possible protracted conflict in Ukraine.
This is how Zelensky responded to a question about the attack on Russia 1:01
A European diplomat said that while the Kremlin speaks optimistically, Putin is preparing for a “long and drawn out Chechnya-style war.
Because he, to some extent, has nowhere to go on this."
There are several reasons behind the May deadline, officials stress.
As the winter frost ends and the ground softens, it will become more difficult for heavy Russian ground units to maneuver.
Which means it's vital that those forces be positioned as soon as possible, US intelligence assesses.
Russian-backed fighters have also been in that region for years.
The Donbas region in eastern Ukraine is where Russian separatist forces took control of the territory in 2014.
NATO: Russia does not withdraw troops, but repositions them 1:26
Before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Putin announced that he recognized two self-proclaimed independent republics in the Donbas region.
Ukrainian officials have also publicly noted the date.
"Before May 9, Putin set the goal of a victory parade for this war," Ukraine's Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov said Thursday.
Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Friday that his country believes they are facing a "very complex and difficult month" as Putin tries to meet a deadline.
“His ultimate goal is, was and will be to take over Ukraine, but he failed.
It failed due to a very strong determination of the Ukrainian military and a very strong unity of Ukraine and the Western world, and the sanctions that have been imposed by the United States, the G7 and the European Union,” Yatsenyuk said.
“So now, from what I see, Putin switched to Plan B. My opinion is that this Plan B has a kind of deadline.
The deadline is May 9.
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The United States is also assessing that Putin is now preparing for the first time to appoint a war commander overall to try to achieve greater success in Russia, two US officials said.
The US believes that Putin will probably appoint a general who has been to the south because that is a place where the Russians have been successful in their objectives.
CNN previously reported that there was no overall commander of field operations in or near Ukraine, and units from different Russian military districts operating in different parts of Ukraine appear to be competing for resources rather than coordinating their efforts, according to two US defense officials
One of the signs that the Russians are regrouping is that their troops that withdrew from combat areas west of Donbas appear to have moved north and Kyiv east and appear to have moved north, in some cases to Belarus, to restock.
The US believes this will put them in position to move southeast into the Donbas region.
One goal of the Russian battlefield in Donbas would be to cut off Ukrainian troops already there from moving west to fight, officials say.
But a shift of the battlefield to the east on land may do little to stop ongoing Russian airstrikes with missiles and long-range aircraft on the rest of Ukraine, especially the south.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
